Strategizing.
“Experts” are once again wringing their hands about Kansas Democrats having been reduced to competing in less than 10 percent of Kansas’ 105 counties. For Democrats, the nine counties that Laura Kelly carried against Kris Kobach usually amount to the outside of the imaginable, according to most observers, expert or not. Democrats cannot compete in Kansas, the “experts” conclude, because we cannot begin to compete across all but a few de minimis specks on all of the big, bright-red canvas that is Kansas’ political map. But cattle don’t vote. People do.
It is all too true that there has been a breathtaking drop in Democratic support in the least populous of America’s counties, including the least populous counties in Kansas. And there has been a corresponding breathtaking surge in Democratic support in America’s most populous counties, like Johnson County, Kansas. For the record, Kelly’s counties were Douglas, Wyandotte, Shawnee, Riley, Johnson, Lyon, Sedgwick, Crawford, and Harvey. All hand-wringing aside, obviously those nine were enough for the rather comfortable Kelly victory. Nonetheless, I believe an optimal map for Kansas Democratic emphasis in 2020 would be expanded (slightly) and would use four conceptual building blocks:
• Counties that Joe Biden carried:
— Douglas
— Wyandotte
— Johnson
— Riley
— Shawnee
• Counties with Regents Universities:
— Lyon (Emporia State University—5,615 students) (Note: 14,114 Lyon Countians voted in Nov. 2020) (29.5 percent of Lyon Countians are persons of color)
— Sedgwick (Wichita State University—16,097 students) (32.4 percent of Sedgwick Countians are persons of color) (Sedgwick County is important because of its sheer size)
— Crawford (Pittsburg State University—6,017 students) (Note: 16,816 Crawford Countians voted in Nov. 2020)
— Ellis (Fort Hays State University—14,104 students) (Note: 13,919 Ellis Countians voted in Nov. 2020)
• Majority Minority Counties:
— Finney (40.1 percent white alone, not Hispanic or Latino)
— Seward (28.9 percent white alone, not Hispanic or Latino)
— Ford (38.9 percent white alone, not Hispanic or Latino)
• Harvey County
So that’s 13 counties that I would prioritize. The Biden counties because… no explanation necessary.
The Regents University counties, because (i) Democrats are trending nationwide among youth and the best-educated voters, so we can try to compete in the Regents University counties right now. Consider that Douglas and Riley Counties were among the four best counties for Kelly AND Biden. And notice that Lyon, Sedgwick, and Crawford were also among Kelly’s eight best, making 5/8. And because (ii) over time graduates of Regents Universities come to make up much of the center of intellectual life in EVERY Kansas community. So if Regents University students get involved in local, campus community based Democratic campaigns while they are in college, we have a very good chance to keep them as they get situated (most likely somewhere in Kansas) after college. Thus further builds our network among the educated across Kansas. And our future successful candidates everywhere are many.
Majority minority counties for demographic reasons. But —although youth-driven— different in other ways than the demographic reasons underlying prioritizing Regents University counties. The significant Latino population bubble that arrived in Finney, Seward, and Ford Counties a generation ago tended to have large families. So —while many of those workers and their spouses are not citizens (and thus cannot vote)— the even-larger population now graduating from Garden City, Liberal, and Dodge City High Schools ipso facto does consist of United States citizens. Thus, again, besides being persons of color, the people we must win in order to win in these counties are YOUNG. It is significant that all three of those communities have Community Colleges (two-year colleges). Minority populations in Kansas are growing a bit faster than the population of Kansas as a whole. Finney, Seward, and Ford Counties each elect legislators from overwhelmingly majority minority districts. At least pending reapportionment. And, as I said, the number of counties of that character is very slowly increasing.
Harvey County because … dance with who brung ya. State Rep. Tim Hodge took it and carried it twice during the Trump years. And Harvey County was one of Kelly’s nine. Nothing further need be said.
All 13 of these counties are in the top 25 percent of Kansas counties in terms of population. In 2020 all 13 were in the top 25 percent of Kansas counties in terms of Biden percentage.
I look at Kansas’ map, and I could easily list a good forty to fifty more counties that have been crucial for us during most of my long lifetime of observing Kansas politics. Forty to fifty more counties where Democratic warriors are sharpening their spears even today. Forty to fifty more counties that I could write passionately about. But just as we must unsparingly attend to nine counties that have pulled us through to recent Gubernatorial and Congressional wins, we simply cannot fail to start to rebuild in rural and small town Kansas. Expanding our targets to include the 13 counties I have identified is the right start.
But seen through a slightly different prism, this piece is not about 13 counties, it is about eight counties. For no one even begins to suspect that Democrats will fail to engage in Douglas, Wyandotte, Johnson, Riley, or Shawnee County—the five counties Biden carried. And, really, this piece is not about eight counties, it is about four. Because no one really believes that Democrats will fail to make a first rate effort in Lyon, Sedgwick, Crawford, or Harvey County—the other four Kelly counties. So a very broad reading of this piece could see it as but a call to arms for ramped up effort in four western Kansas counties, Finney, Seward, Ford, and Ellis, and for some attention to community-based candidacies.
However any of that may be, in the 2022 general election cycle, not a single one of us can fail to fully engage where we live, be it in an urban enclave that “experts” tell you is “in the bag” and needs no work, or in the most remote, blue hope-starved corner of Rocky Mountain Time Zone Kansas. Rather this is about pinpointing opportunities to give extra help.
Taking Action.
A popular statewide elected official who is limited to two terms can do much to build a party in disparate Kansas counties. In fact, Governor Laura Kelly has done much, and will do much more. Yet a vital county party has community-based elected officials holding courthouse offices, legislative seats, and the like. In Kansas, community-based elected officials rarely are term-limited. They provide their party with feet on the ground, trained to get their voters registered and to the polls. They know their neighborhoods. They have a dog in the fight. And they become our bench. Three political figures I have known illustrate the usefulness of city, school district, and courthouse offices as “bench:” For you need look no further than former Arkansas City Mayor Robert Docking, former Wichita School Board Member Dan Glickman, and former Johnson County District Attorney Dennis Moore. Docking, of course, went on to become Kansas’ only four-term Governor; Glickman a nine-term Member of Congress, then United States Secretary of Agriculture; Moore a six-term Member of Congress.
In 2022 all Kansas House seats are up, but no Kansas Senate seats are on the ballot. We expect to compete for perhaps a handful of House seats in these target counties, but in many cases —although the gap is narrowing— freshly gerrymandered seats may again prove to be a bridge too far.
As to courthouse offices, only County Commissioners are up for election in 2022. The other county offices are on the ballot in Presidential years. In every Kansas County, Commissioners are elected to staggered four-year terms. So not even all County Commissioners are on the ballot in 2022. But races are scheduled in every county. And each county is represented by three, five, or seven Commissioners, elected by district. So a county that is represented by just one House Member must divide that small countywide population into still-smaller pieces. If hundreds of college students are crammed into student housing in a particular precinct, that precinct will have a way outsized vote in the County Commission district in which it is situated. The same goes for populous Latino precincts in south Liberal. And south Dodge City.
The majority minority counties’ websites provide a case in point. Those three counties have altogether 13 Commissioners. Twelve of them are old Anglo Republican men. The 13th is an old Anglo Republican woman. Not a one of them has faced a Democratic challenger (or any challenger) in years.
The point is, some of these can be won.
A survey of some of the smaller of these counties revealed that Commissioners there are salaried in the mid-40’s. And the job just isn’t all that time-consuming. So people —even pretty decent people— can be persuaded to run.
Here is the rub, and here is the solution:
The filing fee for a County Commission race is several-fold higher than the filing fee for —say— a State House seat. That filing fee does in fact deter new candidates. Until the last day or two, I had envisioned writing this piece to encourage county party activists to organize signature drives so our candidates could file by petition, to eliminate the necessity of a filing fee. But COVID. And days flying off the calendar as the filing deadline approaches. Suddenly it is urgently important to enable county parties to pay filing fees for Democratic County Commission candidates of exceptional quality.
Embedded in this post are links to the ActBlue pages of the seven relevant county parties that have ActBlue recognition. Please join me in contributing something to each of them. So if you’ve got $175 to turn a red state around, please send $25 to each. If you’ve got $70, please send $10 to each. If you’ve got $25, please just pick one and send it there.
A Word or Two About the Big Picture.
For Kansas Democrats, the main thing is to ride the demographics of modern Democratic blocs as far as they will take us. That means (1) highly educated voters, and (2) young voters. With the possible exception of Sedgwick County, the targets I have identified aim at young voters to the very maximum extent possible. Consider the breathtaking youth of the Latino vote in the meat packing counties. Consider, as well, the density of well-educated and learning voters in the Regents University counties.
Summing Up.
Democrats in Kansas —like Democrats across the country— have got to stop flailing helplessly, like turtles turned on their backs, legs in the air.
Let’s go on the offensive.
And let’s do it in a smart way.
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The deadline prior to which candidates must file grows inexorably nearer.