Ukrainian servicemen board a train as they depart in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on March 9, 2022. The Ukrainians are getting reinforcements, while Russia stalls.
Let’s start with this map, perhaps the best visual representation I’ve seen yet. (I previously wrote about how hard it is to depict the state of the war in map form.)
This is the best representation of territory Russia truly holds, and places where it’s basically occupying roads and little else. To recap, there are four axes—Kyiv (north), Crimea (south), Donbas (east), and Kharkiv/Sumi (northeast).
The north axis is split in two, one which is stuck just northwest of Kyiv, and the other which has been stuck at Chernihiv northeast of the capital. The Crimea axis is split in at least three. The left prong is trying to somehow get to Odessa, but stuck in Mykolayiv (there’s an attempt to skip it entirely, that left-most tendril down south). The right prong is laying siege to Mariupol in that southeastern corner of the country (and has been reported as fallen to Russia like 20 times by now). And then there’s the center prong which took Kherson, still the only major city to fall to Russia so far. It is now pushing north, trying to cut off Ukrainian forces defending the eastern Donbas axis.
If you see very little red in the eastern Donbas axis, it’s because those are separatist troops, and their equipment looks like it’s out of World War II. They suck bad. They’ve made some slight gains but at this point, Russia really has to be more focused on the pincer maneuver to cut them off. Their separatist allies ain’t getting it done. And lastly there’s the Kharkiv northeast axis, where Russia has been unable to take the city, nor nearby Sumy, despite relentless artillery shelling from across the border in Russia, where supply lines aren’t a problem.
Today, after days of only incremental movement, Russian troops tried to advance—and it didn’t go well for them. Up in Chernihiv, Russians were reminded why failure to take the city is such a problem, as they try to bypass the city to get to Kyiv.
Those eight tanks, plus assorted other equipment, seems to be the biggest Ukrainian victory of the war thus far. Yet that wasn’t the only major Russian loss in that area, as just a bit south of there, near the town of Browary on the approach to Kyiv, an entire tank company was ambushed:
There’s good analysis of the attack here, as well as pictures on the ground of the wreckage here. Translation of the intercepted Russian call is here. The exact location on a map, if you need further context, is here.
This video of bedraggled Russian infantrymen under attack, with zero armor, mechanized, or aerial support, somehow got posted on TikTok. They are cartoonishly amateurish, likely conscripts that Russia claims aren’t in the war. And this video is crazy, taken somewhere around Kyiv, where mud literally swallowed these guys up. Who needs Ukrainian resistance when the elements have your back?
Note: Russians are advancing much more easily in the south axis because the region has arid and desert-like conditions. No mud to slow armor down, and no thick forests for ambushes.
As I write this, the tally over at the Oryx website, which only counts kills confirmed by video, is now at 1,031 Russian vehicles and aircraft. That’s a whopping 81 new confirmed kills today, or about 8% of the total! And for the first time, the Institute for the Study of War stated that “The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv.” In fact, there’s a downright giddy tone to today’s update:
Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk [eastern Donbas region] made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations.
It’s weird seeing so much good news! Ukraine has actually fought Russia to a standstill. And while all caveats apply (Russia has much more firepower and, potentially, manpower), every day there’s less reason to think they can turn this military disaster around.
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