Consider two ways to gauge Russia’s progress in its invasion of Ukraine.
Version 1:
Version 2:
They both show the same thing, but not really the same thing. The typical map of Russian territory assumes all ground to the rear of a spearhead unit is now Russian occupied. The bottom one assumes that the only thing held by Russia is its previously occupied territories in Donbas and Crimea, and the roads upon which their vehicle are traversing.
So which one is more “accurate”? Both, and neither. The Russian advance is pushing the Ukrainian army back from multiple axes, and so it could be assumed that the now-vacated territory is held by Russia. On the other hand, we haven’t seen much evidence that Russia is expending precious troops in actually, physically, occupying territory. You see some patrols in some cities, but is Russia really flying the flag in every hamlet and acre of land between their spearhead elements and the Russian/Ukrainian/Crimea/Donbas borders?
I consider both maps valuable. The first one to demonstrate the extent of conventional Russian gains, and the bottom one to demonstrate just how thin Russia is spreading itself out. I wrote yesterday that Russia had spread itself thin on 9 axes, straining already weak supply lines and diluting the mass of their troops. Well, looking at that bottom map, I see 15-20 or maybe even more, depending on which tendrils count as a separate axis. Bottom line, its a shit-ton, and all of them need food, ammo, fuel, medical supplies, mechanical parts, and all the other necessities of modern war. That second map demonstrates, quite vividly, how the deeper into Ukraine Russian forces push, the more exposed their supply lines become. Just yesterday, we saw examples of Ukrainian supply-line raids here, here, here, here, and here. And here and here. And this delightful one here. Because while the regular Ukrainian army is indeed pushed out of those “occupied” regions, Ukrainian territorial self-defense forces have not been, and are still operational. They’ve been organized and trained in guerrilla combat. So are Ukrainian SOF (special operations forces). So are Bayraktar TB2 drones and, apparently, much of the Ukrainian Air Force.
So yes, there are many ways Ukrainians will happily continue to harass Russia’s rear. But can those Ukrainians behind enemy lines get resupplied? No! The roads are under Russian control. And that matters, because those territorial defense forces must then rely on whatever they had pre-invasion, and whatever they can take from occupying Russians themselves. There are no supplies coming from Ukraine HQ, and no more missiles from the West. So it’s not fair to say that such territory is contested in the same way as areas that haven’t yet been taken by advancing Russians. So in the end, both maps have their purposes, even if neither paints the full picture.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 1:11:24 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Over the last day, a corridor has been opened out of the encircled southern city of Mariupol through which a significant number of civilians have been evacuated. To create that corridor, Ukrainian forces removed barricades and mines that had been placed along the route.
Now multiple reports indicate that Russian troops have begun shelling civilians in the corridor, and are using this path in an attempt to invade the holdout city.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 1:23:56 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
For humanitarian corridors to work, Russia has to want them to work, rather than just using them as a means to both weaken defenses and concentrate civilian targets. So long as Russia is using attacks on civilians as a strategy, these corridors are likely to make implementation of the strategy easier for them.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 1:26:42 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This morning, U.S. newspapers are already blaring headlines that proclaim the highest gas prices in history. Meanwhile …
Everyone understand exactly what Republicans are doing: Pretend that they’re making a call to be tough against Russia, but use the results as an attack on President Biden and Democrats in the mid-term. It’s as clear as Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine. And no more likely to stop just because people call them out.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 1:41:55 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Kupyansk is a city southeast of Kharkiv that, like that city, is only about 25 miles from the Russian border. Kupyansk appeared to fall without much struggle—except for some incredible actions by civilians—which has led to charges of treason against mayor Hennadiy Mazehora and other local officials who supposedly surrendered the city without a fight.
A week later, Kupyansk is more or less intact, but occupied by Russian troops and a clear route for Russian forces moving to attack other locations in Ukraine. These forces are likely heading toward Kharkiv, which has been under active shelling and rocket fire every day of the invasion. That’s the stark dichotomy that many Ukrainian towns and city have already faced, and which more of them will face — surrender and live under the Russians, or fight back against an enemy that is making utter destruction a policy.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 2:02:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The pressure to exclude Russian oil from the world market—which is somewhat difficult, considering the fungibility of oil—is gaining steam. The U.S. is now expected to join a ban of Russian imports today. That expectation is driving up oil prices. Again.
Since Russia provides about 10% of the world oil supply, but oil prices are already up over 50% since the start of the conflict, many observers have been accusing oil companies of manipulating the market. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
While speculation can certainly drive the price of oil higher or lower, the market is generally a good demonstration of basic supply and demand.
At any given time, the global supply of oil is likely to be very, very close to global demand. Lowering prices can generate a higher demand (i.e. “hey, gas is cheap, let’s buy that SUV!”) but is also likely to idle exploration and other projects that could increase production. When demand touches production, prices rise until demand is checked (i.e. “gee, airline prices are so high!”) and projects that might increase supply are more likely to move.
The rapid removal of 10% of production from the market means that, for the moment, demand is exceeding supply. Because adding production, even from existing sources, takes some time, the first thing that will happen is that prices will rise until demand is checked.
How high? Russia — and some economists rambling on CNN — are predicting $300 a barrel. However, the markets for future contracts don’t appear to agree with that sentiment. At the moment, oil is trading around $125 / barrel, up $5 on expectations that the U.S. will ban Russian oil imports. But futures prices are actually lower, suggesting that the market expects production and demand to meet within the next few weeks.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 2:04:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Attacks on that humanitarian corridor at Mariupol aren’t just stopping the evacuation of civilians, they’re also preventing food and other essentials that were planned to arrive today from entering the city. Russia appears to be specifically targeting these supplies as part of its attack.