Here’s the current state of play in Ukraine:
I dug deeper into it on my last update yesterday, here, but in short, Russia attacked on four main axes—Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv/Sumi in the northeast, Donbas in the west, and Crimea in the south. As you can see with all the tendrils above, each of those four axes have splintered into over a dozen main avenues of advance. That means that Russia’s 190,000 staged troops are now dispersed over a wide field, rendering none of them overwhelming. Even if all of them were concentrated on Kyiv, that is a city of almost 3 million, hundreds of thousands of them armed. For context, the United States’ invasion of Iraq had one main axis—from the south, and a “1b” diversionary airborne assault in the north.
Meanwhile, we’ve talked ad infinitum about Russia’s logistical issues. The U.S. had trouble keeping one axis of attack supplied. Russia sucks at logistics, and yet they’re trying to keep a dozen lines of attack operational. Yeah, no wonder they’ve mostly grinned to a halt. Let’s zoom in on that Kyiv and Kharkiv/Sumi axes:
See that long tendril from Sumi to Kyiv? That exists because Belorussia is north of Kyiv, Sumi is Russian border. It’s easier for Russia to get its supplies into the Kyiv area through Sumi than it is through yet another country. Yet despite being just kilometers from the border, Russia has been unable to take it. And that means that long tendril is 334 kms long (~210 miles), none of it secure, all ripe pickings for Ukrainian territorial defense forces—locals with guns and, increasingly, anti-tank missiles.
Same with that tendril from Chernihiv down to Kyiv. Russia can’t take the city, tries to go around it, suffers because of it.
So Russia is suffering from 1) dilution of its forces, and inability to mass for large-scale assaults, and 2) insecure supply lines. Well, people say, Russia will learn from its mistakes! It’ll adjust its tactics! But… how?
Remedying the first problem would require what, pulling everyone out, and re-invading from a single point? Not going to happen for a bunch of reasons, most of which should be obvious (like ceding hard-won territory back to Ukraine). The second necessarily follows the first‚ so long as Russian troops are strung out around 12 different points, there’s no way to “fix” those lines.
And then there’s this: “Individual Russian attacks at roughly regiment size reported on March 8-9 may represent the maximum scale of offensive operations Russian forces can conduct on this axis at any one time.” (Emphasis mine.)
A regiment is around 600 soldiers, and they’ve shown no ability to mass larger groups for major assaults. One POW was complaining that his unit took more casualties from their own artillery than Ukrainians. Air cover is severely limited, likely for the same reason. Russian communication gear is literally commercial walkie talkies. Their $30 million advanced fighters have Samsung GPS units fixed to their windows. They can’t communicate, they can’t coordinate. This is the sort of thing western militaries practice time and time and time again. It’s expensive! It’s complicated! But our commanders don’t take the money and spend it on Italian villas and vodkas instead.
Now ponder how Russia is expecting to take Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million, pre-war of course), Sumy (pop. 265,000), Kyiv (pop. 2.9 million), Odesa (pop. 993,000), Mykolaiv (pop. 486,000) and Chernihiv (pop. 285,000) if they can’t even pull together 1,000 troops for an assault. No wonder they’ve settled on trying to terrorize civilians into compliance!
So strategically, Russia is a mess. They shouldn’t have attacked from so many different places, spreading their forces too thin. Operationally, they can’t handle supply lines. Not sure how you “fix” that. And tactically, they can’t manage to cobble together more than several hundred men for any assault, which is perhaps we don’t see armor and infantry and artillery and air all working in “combined arms” fashion.
None of those are things they can “fix” in a matter of days or weeks.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 4:37:20 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Following what appears to be a false flag attack staged by Russian forces on a site near the Belarus / Ukraine border, there are reports that convoys of military transport trucks are bringing Belarusian troops to the border. Video has indicated troop movements along highways only a few miles from Brest, which could position these forces for an attack far to the west of current combat in Ukraine.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 1:58:44 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In his latest speech, Vladimir Putin announced that foreign “volunteers” are on their way to help with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This most likely means fighters transferred from Assad’s regime in Syria. How many will actually appear is unclear, as is what they would do.
The supply of anti-tank weapons available to Ukraine has gone a long way toward neutralizing Russia’s massive advantage in terms of tanks are other armored vehicles. So far, Russia seems to be largely staying out of cities and using artillery and multi-launch rocket systems to reduce buildings to rubble, with a particular emphasis on attacking schools, hospitals, and public infrastructure. But if Russia actually means to take Kyiv and Kharkiv, that may come down to street-by-street infantry fighting, which is something where veterans of the Battle of Aleppo might be useful.
Assad is utterly dependent on Putin, giving him good incentive to dig up some “volunteers.” There have been a number of pro-Russia rallies in Syria over the last few days, with vehicles sporting the “Z” symbol. But to what extent these are spontaneous vs. being a government product, is impossible to tell.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 2:16:23 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Well, here’s a not-at-all Freudian slip in Vladimir Putin’s latest statement.
There’s no doubt that Putin is deeply mired in his ego-driven delusions about restoring the USSR. Hopefully, he’s not convinced that this is 1981.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 2:39:51 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Belarus may not be officially sending in troops to assist in the Russian invasion, but over half of all missiles launched into Ukraine have come from sites in Belarus. The same is true of aircraft.
Despite how many Russian planes Ukrainian forces have now downed (12 planes, 13 helicopters according to Oryx, over three times that number of each, according to the Ukrainian military), many more are positioned just 30 miles across the Belarus border at Luninets. The Su-25s in the tweet below are ground-support aircraft, the kind that should be flying patrols over those Russian columns, but which have been mysteriously absent in several troop movements. The five plane difference between these two days matches exactly the number of Su-25s known to have been downed in Ukraine in the first five days of conflict — so maybe their absence isn’t so mysterious.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 2:43:47 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There are now reports that Ukraine has struck at targets inside Belarus, with smoke reportedly coming from a village near the border. However, there are also claims that this is a “false flag” attack staged by Russia to generate anger in Belarus. Waiting for more details.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 3:00:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This appears to be the same incident reported above. If Ukraine was going to actually hit a location inside Belarus, all those planes on the ground at Luninets are a big, fat target. The fact that they’re still there shows how carefully Ukraine is painting within the lines.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 3:08:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has officially claimed that Russia struck at targets inside Belarus. However, these targets appear to be very close to the border and, considering Russia’s ongoing efforts in this war, it’s not clear that this was a deliberate attempt to involve Belarus forces rather than the latest screw up.