No matter what map of Ukraine you use — one of those that falsely makes it seem like Russia is occupying large areas of the country, or one that shows just how tenuous their control is along way too many disconnected corridors — one thing becomes immediately clear: The action is in the east. All of the major conflicts have occurred east of a line running from the Kyiv suburbs, down to the area around Mykolaiv in the south.
In large part, that’s because the east = Russia. There’s not just the long Russian border that runs past cities like battered Kharkiv, but the Russian occupied areas in Donbas. Until Friday, the westernmost action of the entire war appears to have been bombs that were dropped on a Ukrainian village about 80 miles to the west of Ukraine.
But on Friday came reports that a pair of Russian bombers were engaged in what appears to be a false flag operation, veering into Ukraine, then firing missiles back into a village on the Belarus side of the border. This action took place near a village called Bukhlichi, nearly 200 miles west of Kyiv. The action took place one day after Alexander Lukashenko was called to Moscow, and within minutes of the event, Belarusian troop transports were seen moving along the M10 highway, east of Brest.
All of this suggests the possibility that, should Belarus make its delayed entry into this conflict, troops could enter Ukraine far to the west of current conflicts, opening a western front in the conflict. However, it’s not at all clear this would require Ukraine to shift around forces in the east. For one thing, Lyiv has been the training site for new volunteers within Ukraine. It’s also the entry point for international volunteers seeking to join the Ukrainian cause. Should Belarus come across the border, they could be facing forces that are moving directly north to meet them. And if those Ukrainian forces are mostly green — so are those from Belarus.
One other factor: The western part of Ukraine is not like the mostly level areas that have been visible around Kyiv and points east. The western part of Ukraine is crinkled into the foothills and eastern peaks of the Carpathian Mountains. The area is sparsely populated, cut through with many fewer highways, and more heavily wooded. Any movement into the area is likely to be quickly met with force, because it could threaten both Ukrainian supply lines and the movement of refugees seeking to reach Poland and Slovakia.
Any enemy convoys moving into the region, might want to consider how close they are not just to the point where foreign troops are coming to join Ukraine, but also how handy they would be the the point where NATO anti-tank weapons are making their entry.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 7:24:40 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A thread on what it would mean should Belarus actually deploy troops to Ukraine.
“From a military standpoint, Belarus's forces along with Syrian mercenaries provide Russia with much needed manpower. This will delay official conscription and the entry of Russian reservists not stationed near the Ukrainian border.”
The quality of that manpower, or the actual usefulness of the intervention? That’s a lot less clear? And one thing that Putin might want to consider: By making this not a Russia vs. Ukraine fight, but a Russia and its allies against Ukraine match, they’re making the case for other nations to intervene on behalf of Ukraine.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 7:33:36 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
When it comes to Russian bombs ending up somewhere outside of Ukraine, its aim here seems a good deal more risky. Croatia has been part of NATO since 2009.
However, it’s hard to know how much credence to lend to this story. Zagreb is over 300 miles from the nearest point in Ukraine, and more like 800 miles from the nearest area under Russian control. This is definitely a story that needs more information before it gets waived around as a casus belli.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 7:57:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Quite a surprise to see Russia losing vehicles near Mariupol, considering the concentration of forces in that area. The city has been encircled for almost a week, with Russia shelling civilians who attempted to evacuate after first agreeing to a humanitarian corridor. On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces supposedly pushed into the area, possibly in an attempt to provide some relief to the city, which has also been without food, water, and electricity. Civilian casualties in Mariupol are now over 1,600.
It’s unclear how close Ukrainian forces came to the city, though there were reports of fighting on the outskirts. Should Ukraine actually break through to Mariupol it would be a tremendous victory — both militarily and psychologically. The possibility of this seems remote, but then, the current situation would have seemed impossible two weeks ago.
Friday, Mar 11, 2022 · 8:19:27 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Putin appears to be unhappy with the intelligence he’s been getting in Ukraine. These may be the same guys who told Putin that Kyiv would be a cakewalk. On the other hand, if they had told him what was actually going to happen, Putin would have arrested them weeks ago.
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