Update from the four major axes:
Kyiv (north): Not much, Russians “regrouping.” Honestly, not sure what they’re “regrouping,” as recent forays have been anemic in scope. Russia continues to be unable to mount any serious attack. They were silent on the northwest approach (though Ukraine claims to have been quite active), and engaged only in “limited” incursion on the northeastern approach. Looks like that northeastern incursion suffered some loses:
Russians clearly don’t have manpower to mount a serious assault on the city of 2.9 million. Their goal may simply be to get artillery close enough to pull a Kherson or Mariupol—indiscriminate shelling of civilians in an attempt to terrorize Ukraine into submission. The ubiquitous GRAD MLRS rocket artillery systems have a maximum range of 21 kms, which right now only reaches some of the outer suburbs. Continuing to keep them out of range is a top Ukrainian defensive priority.
Kharkiv/Sumy (northeast):
The map hasn’t changed. The Institute of War recaps, “Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.” Previous days brought reports that Russian troops encircling Kharkiv had also been pulled to help with securing those lines.
Remember, Russia doesn’t have that many troops. 190,000 sounds like a lot, but only a small percent of those actually shoot anything—the vast majority are support (truck drivers, supply, mechanics, medics, command and control, fuel, etc). Then, spread them out along four major axes, and over a dozen lines of attack, and suddenly things don’t look so daunting. It can’t be stated enough—this is the reason Russia is trying to terrorize Ukraine into submission. They just don’t have the forces to actually win on the battlefield.
So they have to pull forces from Kyiv axis and the siege of Kharkiv, but not for new offensive efforts, or to finally take Sumy and secure that territory. But to protect their lines.
Let me stress that: They’re taking precious troops away from the sieges of both Kyiv and Kharkiv, just to guard their supplies, lest, they keep suffering more of this:
So if they can’t secure their lines, how are they going to actually take on cities with hundreds of thousands to millions of pissed off, motivated defenders? On top of that, they’re suffering serious battlefield casualties.
No more reinforcements are coming from Russia, at least not anytime soon. Meanwhile, replacing dead and injured Russians with low-quality Belorussian or Syrian mercenaries with no real skin in the game won’t fix their problems. That’s just more bodies to equip, feed, fuel, and supply, but with fewer support troops and no experience integrating into Russian operations. (Though honestly, that might not be a bad thing now that I think about it...)
Donbas (east): Mariupol, on the far southeastern corner of Ukraine, is surrounded, under massive bombardment, running out of food, no electricity, and it’s still holding on. Russia did make a move on the city’s western edge.
Here’s video of one Russian tank participating in the incursion. There were conflicting reports over whether Russia held any new territory, though these guys mugging with that destroyed Russian equipment suggests that the incursion was repulsed.
They look like they’re downright having fun, instead of being trapped in what might be the most hellish place on the planet right now. But here’s the thing, by all indications this was a few armored vehicles, pushed back with relative ease. Russia is still unable to bring massive force to an objective. Imagine a wave of 2-3,000 infantrymen, supported by armor, artillery, and air support. The fact that Russia can’t manage to send more than a few hundred men into battle at any one time continues to confirm Russia’s inability to coordinate combined-arms actions.
As a result of their shocking ineptitude, a big chunk of Russia’s already thin forces are stuck in a corner that should’ve long-ago been secured. Those are troops that can’t work to encircle Ukrainian defenders on the separatist Donbas border, and they can’t help secure supply lines supporting the siege of Kyiv. I almost wrote “and they can’t help take Sumy or Kharkiv,” but given how inept they’ve been outside Mariupol, I doubt anything can help Russia take those cities.
Crimea/Kherson (south): IFW writes, “Russian advances from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours.”
Mykolayiv is on the Southern Bug river, and all crossings are all solidly in Ukrainian hands. Russia has solidified its hold on Kherson, but supply lines from there to Mykolayiv are 72 km long (~40 miles), and Ukraine territorial defense forces are actively harassing those lines.
So stop me if you’ve heard this story before—Russian advances are stalled because of logistical problems. Instead, Mykolayiv is being leveled by Russian artillery.
Elsewhere, I never bought into predictions that Belarus would enter the war, opening up a new front in western Ukraine. How could they? You think Russian troops are bad, Belarusian ones would be exponentially worse. And they were then supposed to maintain yet another line of supply? Belorussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has turned Vladimir Putin’s conspiracy theories against him as an excuse to not engage militarily:
Lukashenko has previously claimed Belarus will not participate in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine so that Belarusian troops can defend Belarus from what they allege to be a planned NATO attack through Poland and Lithuania
Note, there is no indication that Belarussia has actually deployed troops in defensive positions on the Polish and Lithuanian border. Lukashenko is full of shit, Putin knows he’s full of shit, and there’s nothing Russia can do about it.
Sunday, Mar 13, 2022 · 1:58:14 PM +00:00 · Barbara Morrill
If confirmed, this would surprise no one.
On March 3, as Russian military forces bombed Ukrainian cities as part of Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of his neighbor, the Kremlin sent out talking points to state-friendly media outlets with a request: Use more Tucker Carlson.
“It is essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who sharply criticizes the actions of the United States [and] NATO, their negative role in unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, [and] the defiantly provocative behavior from the leadership of the Western countries and NATO towards the Russian Federation and towards President Putin, personally,” advises the 12-page document written in Russian.
