In “Preparing For Defeat,” reformed NeoCon, Francis Fukuyama, predicts that a new 1989 is coming:
I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:
1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent… Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition.
5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.
8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world… [like] Trump
9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China… The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations.
12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
Many of you will know Fukuyama from his role in PNAC:
As a key Reagan Administration contributor to the formulation of the Reagan Doctrine, Fukuyama is an important figure in the rise of neoconservatism… Fukuyama was active in the Project for the New American Century think tank starting in 1997
You may not be aware of his subsequent rejection of it though:
Fukuyama began to distance himself from the neoconservative agenda of the Bush administration, citing its excessive militarism and embrace of unilateral armed intervention, particularly in the Middle East. By mid 2004, Fukuyama had voiced his growing opposition to the Iraq War and called for Donald Rumsfeld's resignation as Secretary of Defense… Fukuyama declared he would not be voting for Bush
Fukuyama announced the end of the neoconservative movement and argued for the demilitarization of the War on Terrorism
Fukuyama endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 US presidential election
He even now endorses the rational argument for Democratic Socialism:
“It all depends on what you mean by socialism… If you mean redistributive programs that try to redress this big imbalance in both incomes and wealth that has emerged then, yes, I think not only can it come back, it ought to come back. This extended period, which started with Reagan and Thatcher, in which a certain set of ideas about the benefits of unregulated markets took hold, in many ways its had a disastrous effect. At this juncture, it seems to me that certain things Karl Marx said are turning out to be true...”
And of course, as in his own life:
Fukuyama has also perceived Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election as the result of the Western system's ability to correct mistakes.
This war is a horror show. But if Fukuyama is right and all of the things he’s saying actually come to pass, that’ll be one hell of a silver lining. And in the long run, it could even save us from global fascism’s re-emergence by illustrating its core incompetence when put into practice. If it does, Ukrainians will be the stars of possibly the most important chapter of 21st Century history.