Beware the Ides of March.
US-China Perception Monitor:
Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
Update on March 13, 2022: The following article was submitted by the author to the Chinese-language edition of the US-China Perception Monitor. The article was not commissioned by the US-China Perception Monitor, nor is the author affiliated with the Carter Center or the US-China Perception Monitor.
Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controversy in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.
Fascinating piece, worth a read.
Francis Fukuyama/AMERICAN PURPOSE:
Preparing for Defeat
I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.
I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:
- Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
Politico:
As Russia gets bogged down, negotiations heat up
There are a lot of weekend developments from Ukraine, and most of them are driven by a single fact: Russia is losing — or at least not winning — its war.
There’s economic fallout all over the world. This is a sample of analysis on Russia’s economic collapse roiling the nickel market in London.
Think Trading Places (the movie ending explained in the link), except nickel instead of orange juice futures:
WSJ:
JPMorgan Leads Talks to Contain Nickel Crisis Damage
The meltdown bled into the financial system, with nickel giant Tsingshan’s brokers owed several billion dollars in the upfront cash required to make trades
Nickel prices began to rise after Russia, a major producer of the metal, invaded Ukraine, a high-profile example of how the war and punishing Western sanctions have upended the world’s commodity markets, sending prices for metals and energy to their highest levels in years.
The rally morphed into a crisis for the LME last week. Producers such as Tsingshan often sell forward contracts as a way to lock in prices on the physical nickel they mine and refine. In effect, they hold positions that benefit when prices fall, and lose money when prices rise.
Some of Tsingshan’s brokers desperately tried to buy those nickel contracts back to stem losses and avoid escalating margin calls. That buying pushed prices for benchmark three-month forward contracts up 66% in a single session.
Quartz:
Why the surge in nickel prices is bad for a Chinese nickel giant
The London Metal Exchange was forced to suspend the trading of nickel yesterday (March 8) after prices for the metal surged some 250% in just over 24 hours.
Prices for nickel, used in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, had already been rising in recent weeks due to concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. A short squeeze pushed prices into a self-reinforcing upward spiral, hitting $100,000 a ton yesterday from $25,000 just a week ago.
Julia Davis/Daily Beast:
Russia’s Big, Bizarre ‘Thank You!’ to Tucker Carlson and Josh Hawley
Their criticism of American support to Ukraine has not gone unnoticed by the Kremlin and its propaganda machine.
Carlson, who has been described as “practically the co-host” of state TV propagandists and “a voice of reason,” is often quoted to support official Kremlin narratives. Russian senator Alexey Pushkov claimed that the West—and not Russia—is “provoking war.” He asserted: “This isn’t just my opinion. Prominent Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson says that the mainstream media is getting us ready for war, demanding war.”
Politico:
‘We told you so!’ How the West didn’t listen to the countries that know Russia best
Poland and the Baltic states understand the Kremlin better than Western governments, but found their warnings about Putin ignored.
For years, Western Europeans have been dismissive of politicians from Poland and the Baltic countries whenever they sounded the alarm over the expansionist threat posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
They now realize they should have listened to countries with a far deeper knowledge of the Kremlin and a bitter historical memory of the violence that Moscow is willing to unleash to pursue its goals.
Instead, the Westerners followed a path of commercial and political appeasement of Putin, led by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which has now spectacularly backfired with the invasion of Ukraine, the bombardment of its cities and mass emigration.
EJ Dionne/WaPo:
The case for hopeful realism
Hopeful realism is both “centrist” and “progressive,” yet also neither. It would push aside abstract debates about whether programs were too radical or insufficiently bold, too big or not big enough. The focus instead should be on what can be done, now, to deal with problems that moderates and liberals alike see as urgent.
Three developments undergird the case for this approach, which increasingly defines thinking in the White House and among congressional Democrats.
By making the stakes of politics so high, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reminded us of how puny and recklessly trivial our nation’s debate has become. It is wholly unequal to the threats facing democracy, world order and freedom.