Every day since the war began, it seems that CNN has led every single hour of the day with some version of “Russian forces have closed to XX miles of Kyiv” or “there is a XX mile long convoy headed toward Kyiv” or “Kyiv is bracing for the largest assault ever by Russian forces.” Other media outlets have been much better. Yes, war is terrible. Yes, this war is terrible. Yes, cities like Kharkiv and Sumy and Mariupol have been heavily damaged by artillery. Yes. thousands have died. Yes, almost a thousands missiles have fallen. And yes, artillery is shelling the outskirts of Kyiv even as missiles and rockets plunge toward the heart of the city.
But Kyiv has not fallen. It’s not about to.
On Tuesday afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense put out a statement assessing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as we move to the third week of this war. To say that statement is contradictory of CNN’s breathless End-Times-All-The-Time approach is underselling it.
“On day 20 of Russia’s war, we continue to assess limited to no progress by Russian ground forces in achieving their objectives,” says the Pentagon spokesman. “Kyiv remains under bombardment by long range fires, with civilian targets—including residential areas—being struck with increasing frequency. But leading elements of Russian forces have not appreciably advanced on the city."
For those who really must have numbers, the Defense Department estimates that Russian forces are still about 15-20km away from the city on the northwest, and about 20-30km away on the north east. That’s pretty much where they have been since about the second day of the war. “Ukrainians hold Brovary and are still defending Kyiv,” says the Pentagon.
The areas that are isolated — Mariupol and Chernihiv—remain isolate, but Ukraine is working to restore some kind of contact and coordination. Meanwhile, “stiff Ukrainian resistance” has prevented any Russian progress at Kharkiv or on the approaches to Mykolaiv.
And here’s a statement that provides some definite relief, especially considering where the morning began: "While we have observed some LSTs operating in the northern Black Sea, we are not seeing any imminent amphibious movement toward Odesa."
Russia still has roughly 90% of the force it had at the start of the conflict. So does Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Pentagon sees no sign that significant additional forces are on their way to help Russia break out of this stalemate. In fact, they report “We’ve seen no evidence of Russian efforts to flow in additional supplies from inside Russia or from elsewhere." Which is genuinely shocking.
Ukrainian cities are burning. Russia’s economy is collapsing. And Russia may be out of supplies to send. Stay tuned.
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