Russia’s Vladimir Putin was seething. It was obvious to him that Russia was a glorious SUPER POWER of unheralded strength and might, yet his biggest foe, the United States of America, yawned in his face and announced to the world that it was going to go over there, where its real challenger stood—in Asia. So in the mold of Kim Jong-Un, Putin threw a tantrum to get the world’s attention, massing 190,000 troops around Ukraine and in Belarus to, as one observer noted, “remind Western leaders of Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower, and the risks associated with confronting it militarily.”
Well, no one was confronting it militarily. The one time the United States military came into contact with Russian “mercenaries” in Syria, 200-300 Russian soldiers “mercenaries” ended up dead. Guess how many Americans were killed? Of the 40 involved, zero died. Oh, and zero were injured. You can bet Putin took note—just one more indignity in a long litany of indignities. Indeed, Putin called the breakup of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” A century that included the Holocaust, mind you, not to mention 24 million dead Russians in World War II.
So Putin embarked on a military “modernization.” His army would rely less on low-quality conscripts and more on professional contract soldiers. His soldiers would be equipped with the best and greatest gear, tanks, planes, missiles, you name it. His propaganda machine mastered social media to the point where it elected him a favorable American puppet president. Had he been reelected, NATO would’ve been smote forever! He successfully fomented rebellion in Georgia and Ukraine, thus blocking their acceptance into NATO (which doesn’t allow new members with simmering territorial disputes). He propped up puppets in Belorussia and Kazakhstan and supported Armenia in its war against Azerbaijan. He goaded several former Soviet republics to join Russia in its Collective Security Treaty Organization, tying them firmly to Moscow. And he had a favorable stooge running Ukraine! Until he didn’t after a popular revolt overthrew that government, leading to the split of the Donbas region, eight years of war, and now Big War.
Putin propagandist and Duma parliament member Oleg Matveychev spoke on air to the feeling of being aggrieved that Putin is channeling so poorly. “We should be thinking about reparations from the damage that was caused by the sanctions and the war itself, because that too costs money and we should get it back. The return of all Russian properties, those of the Russian empire, the Soviet Union and current Russia, which has been seized in the United States, and so on.” Among those properties? Alaska and California. Russia is a victim. Everything was taken from them. But they are so MIGHTY! And now they’re taking it back! And the world was worried. Diplomats shuffled around European capitals trying to appease Putin, finding the magic words that would see him back off his invasion threats. However, Putin never saw this as an invasion, just the return of Russia’s rightful property. “I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”
So the world watched in dread as Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine while Russian planes and missiles pummeled targets. We were about to witness a global superpower’s shock and awe, just as we had seen in Iraq as the United States invaded in 2003. Except we’ve seen a different kind of shock and awe. This isn’t precision-guided munitions systematically targeting government and military targets, air defenses, weapons depots, and military formations. Russia doesn’t have that capability. They have mostly dumb bombs. And while Baghdad fell in three weeks as American troops systematically worked their way through 800 kilometers (500 miles) of towns to get to Baghdad, Russia still hasn’t taken a city on its border. It’s as if the United States invaded Mexico and couldn’t manage to enter Cuidad Juarez or Nogales. We’re not even talking guerrilla warfare here. They can’t even punch their way into towns a few kilometers from Russia itself! They don’t even need supply lines for those towns.
Russia has nuclear weapons, but that doesn’t make them a global superpower, as Pakistan, France, the U.K., India, North Korea, and Israel well know. China has achieved superpower status on the strength of its economy, the second largest in the world. Russia ranks 11th in GDP behind Italy, Canada, and South Korea. It’ll be far lower down that list once 2022 numbers are compiled. When the United Nations called a vote on the matter, most of Russia’s friends—including Cuba!—nervously avoided eye contact, with only four rogue regimes siding with the murderers (North Korea, Syria, Belarus, and Eritrea). Supposed ally Venezuela couldn’t even be bothered to show up.
And what of its vaunted military? Well, it has a lot of artillery and a complete lack of moral aversion to indiscriminate murder of noncombatant civilians. It certainly isn’t winning any battles with its superior equipment, well-honed tactical brilliance, or smart weapons and munitions. Russia is a dumb, clumsy oaf with a big club as a technologically inferior but nimble, creative, and clever opponent inflicts death by a thousand paper cuts. Worst of all, that enemy is doing a good job of stealing that club and using it against Russia.
Global superpower? Hardly. More like regional bully and soon, Chinese vassal state. Putin is good at lying to his people, so I can’t wait to see what his propagandists come up with to cover for Russia’s inevitable humiliating retreat. “He promised not to join NATO! HUZZAH!” they might bellow, hoping everyone forgets promises of regime change, “denazification,” and full integration of Ukraine into Russia. But Putin will know that European generals will be snickering at him and his military. The U.S. will be like, “Okay ... now back to China!” Ukraine will be the toast of the free world, with hundreds of billions in aid flowing to rebuild both civically and militarily. And all those central Asian satellite states and breakaway regions propped up with Russian paratroopers? Those places are going to get feisty.
But most of all, the world will move on, forgetting about Russia, because no matter how devastating and humiliating Putin thinks the dissolution of the USSR was, this will be 1,000 times worse.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 2:31:15 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In looking at images of Ukraine, you may have noted that Odessa features a prominent statue of a 19th century French royalist with the exhausting name of Armand-Emmanuel de Vignerot du Plessis, duc de Richelieu. In more recent photos, the statue is surrounded by sandbags to protect it from shelling — something Russian warships tried yesterday in a test of Odessa’s defenses.
The statue has been there since 1828, so there’s clearly history and local pride involved in protecting it. But there’s also some deeper context for a city that has a famously important Jewish community.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 2:39:08 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Tuesday, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic did what no other world leaders have done since the war began — they traveled to Kyiv and spoke with President Zelenskyy face to face.
Two of those prime ministers are now pressing hard for Europe, NATO, and the US to provide more weapons, and more types of weapons, to Ukraine.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 2:43:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In his address to Congress, Zelenskyy specifically mentioned the S-300 anti-missile defense system. Now reports are indicating that such systems have already been moved into Ukraine.
These systems were originally made by the Soviet Union, but there are many variants and upgrades. If systems have already made it into Ukraine, it’s likely they came across the border from Slovakia, which was one of three nations outside Russia known to have these systems.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 3:03:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This may be the biggest news of the day when it comes to U.S. support of Ukraine.
Several days ago, Biden mentioned that the U.S. wanted to send Ukraine something that would be better than either Stinger missiles or the aircraft that it wanted. What that better system might be was a mystery — but now that mystery may be solved.
The AeroViroment Switchblade 300 and 600 are not anti-tank or anti-aircraft missiles in the conventional sense, but man-portable “tactical missile systems.” They’re essentially a cross between a drone and a missile that can launch, stay in the air for an extended time, and then dive down to attack a specific target. The common name for this kind of weapon is a “kamikaze drone.”
They’re as small as many observation drones, but they include a powerful warhead that can be delivered by remotely steering the drone to a target on the ground. In short, they’re air cover for troops that don’t have air cover.
They can reach altitudes of 15,000 feet, but are really more useful at extremely low altitudes. They can perform tasks like popping over a line of buildings, looking for enemy troops or vehicles below, then swooping down. Because they’re under human control to the last second, they can also be called off — even allowed to impact without exploding.
Or … it can also be given an image, including an image of a building, vehicle, or even an individual person, and semi-autonomously track down and destroy that target. This is a genuinely revolutionary weapon, and one that the U.S. has not previously shared.
One other advantage of the Switchblade — it’s cheap. Like $6,000 cheap. Meaning it’s much cheaper than even the Javelin anti-tank system.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 5:12:34 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Biden signs legislation that sends 800 anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 more Javelins and similar anti-armor weapons, 7,000 small arms (automatic rifles, shotguns, etc.), 20 million rounds of ammunition, and an unspecified number of drones.
The package also includes humanitarian assistance.
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 · 5:27:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Some reports saying that the US has also agreed to send Ukraine “transport helicopters and armed patrol boats.” If that’s the case … why not send fighter aircraft? What’s the legal difference between an armed patrol boat and a fighter?