Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also analyze how the war in Ukraine is playing out in U.S. elections, the status of redistricting in the five laggard states that have yet to adopt new congressional maps, and a lawsuit challenging whether Oklahoma can hold a special election for the Senate this year. You can listen to The Downballot on all major podcast platforms.
David Beard:
Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.
David Nir:
I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. You can drop us a line with your thoughts at thedownballot@dailykos.com.
David Beard:
Please subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts and leave us a five-star rating and review. But let's go ahead and get into today's episode. What are we going to be covering today, Nir?
David Nir:
Today we will be talking with Daniel Nichanian, who is the editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, a digital magazine devoted to down-ballot elections for races that affect voting rights and criminal justice. But first, we are going to discuss how the war in Ukraine is playing out in U.S. elections. We're also going to take a look at where redistricting stands in the five states that have yet to complete new congressional maps. Finally, we're going to check back in on a strange special election for the senate in Oklahoma.
David Beard:
Great. Let's get started.
David Nir:
It's now time for our weekly hits where David Beard and I will run through some of the stories that are making headlines or that are not making the headlines they should be in the world of down-ballot elections. What are you starting us off with, Beard?
David Beard:
I wanted to continue an interesting discussion that we had last week a little bit, which is the influence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the ongoing GOP primaries. We saw last week that the North Carolina Senate had an ad about it, and now we've seen two more Republican ads related to it. One pretty straightforward in Ohio, and then one strange one that I'll get to afterwards in Georgia.
David Beard:
In Ohio, there's a five-way Senate primary for the GOP nomination. This involves really two candidates: former Ohio treasurer, Josh Mandel, and former Ohio Republican party chair, Jane Timken. Mandel's been endorsed by the Club for Growth, and they've been spending money on his behalf. And so, they've started airing an ad hitting Timken for her family's business dealings with Russian oligarchs. The ad claims that Vladimir Putin's old oligarchs partnered with Jane Timken's family business to build high capacity freight rail cards.
David Beard:
Then it claims that this is that this is essentially supplying Putin's government with military grade machinery, and then ends saying Timken's family gets rich, Timken money funds her campaign, and she has the gall to run for the U.S. Senate. That's how the ad ends. It's really a little bit lots of connections, as opposed to the first ad being very straightforward like, "These were things that Bud said and things that Bud voted for or against."
David Beard:
This one is connecting Timken's family and her business dealings, with the business dealings of Russian oligarchs and what they're manufacturing and how that would be contributing to the effort, which could certainly be effective, but certainly requires a couple more hoops to jump through than the North Carolina ad. It is worth noting that Ohio does have the fifth largest Ukrainian population in the United States, particularly in the suburbs of Cleveland.
David Beard:
So we can certainly see that could be effective, and we'll see if it's an ongoing issue that makes a difference in this primary, that has a lot of competitive candidates. And so, has a lot of back and forth and things going on with it. Then separately, there's this very crowded primary in Georgia's 10th district, which covers the central and eastern parts of the state, where the incumbent Republican, Jody Hice is running for secretary of state.
David Beard:
One of the many candidates running here is Mitch Swan. He's a retired Marine colonel. He's running this very strange ad where he starts off talking about the biggest European land war in Europe since World War II, so obviously talking about the Russian invasion. He talks about how Putin is reviewing nuclear options, in a very scary way. Then he claims that the problem with all this is that America is allowing trans service members into the military and that's going to destroy our military somehow.
David Beard:
He says that woke indoctrination will destroy our military in the ad, which is just so extremely strange that the takeaway from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the failures of the Russian military, what he takes away from this is that America shouldn't have trans service members in their military. I'll just observe that the Ukrainian military allows LGBT soldiers to serve openly like we do, while Russia clearly does not. Russia's extremely homophobic, from a policy standpoint.
David Beard:
We've seen who has the superior fighting force, by and large here. So I don't know where he gets the idea that trans service members are a problem. If anything, they should be a strength considering what we've seen.
David Nir:
That's such an amazing point. I always thought that if you want to maximize your military readiness, the worst thing you should possibly do is tell people willing to fight for you that you don't want them to fight. Vladimir Putin did that and Ukraine didn't, and like you said, we're seeing the results. We're going to switch to an entirely different topic. I want to talk about congressional redistricting. We're reaching the end game in what has been a long but somewhat rush process because of the late release of census data last year.
David Nir:
As of now, there are only five states that have yet to draw new congressional maps. Now this doesn't include some other states or there's pending litigation and maps could get unended, but that maps have actually been adopted. These are five states with no legal map for the 2022 elections. I'm going to briefly run through each of them because they're all screwed up in a different way.
David Nir:
At the top of the list is Louisiana. That's a particularly fascinating situation. Republicans drew a new map there that by and large looks like the old map. And Democrats, including the governor, John Bell Edwards, are very unhappy with that map because about a third of Louisiana's population is Black, and there's only one district with a black majority, the second district. Reformers have demanded a second Black district and, of course, Republicans have refused to draw one because it would almost certainly elect a Democrat.
David Nir:
Edwards vetoed the map and now Republicans are seeing whether they actually have enough votes to overturn that veto. They fell short of the two-thirds super majority on the initial vote, and there were some Republicans who actually voted against the GOP's own map. The really interesting thing here is that in the 200 plus years that Louisiana's been a state, there are only two known instances that a governor's veto has ever been overturned.
David Nir:
Governors are unusually powerful in the state, and there is a good chance that Edward's veto will get sustained, which would then likely mean that the courts will draw a new map. And if the courts take reformers views to heart, we could see another Black district in Louisiana.
David Nir:
The next and possibly even crazier... No, I'm going to say it's crazier, is Florida. Their Republicans have passed an unusual two-map plan where there's a map A that they seem to prefer the most, but they say that if map A gets struck down, it'll be replaced by map B, which is somewhat less aggressive of a gerrymander. But Ron DeSantis, who is also a Republican, he's the governor, he is completely pissed off about the approach the legislature has taken.
David Nir:
He wants them to go crazy, ultra, super, max, hyper, mega gerrymandered, and tear apart a Black plurality district in North Florida, make every district in the Northern part of the state leaning Republican. A lot of other Republicans are not interested in pursuing that route. They think that such a map would get struck down in court. DeSantis has pledged to veto this map or this two-map plan that Republicans have passed, except he hasn't yet.
David Nir:
The reason is very strange, which is that the legislature has yet to forward the bill to him, and it's not clear why. What they're waiting on may have some something to do with machinations surrounding the budget that they also just passed. But that one is totally up in the air. If DeSantis does veto this and Republicans can't overturn his veto, then, again, we could see court drawn maps.
David Nir:
Very quickly I'll run through the other three states. In Missouri, which we discussed on an episode a few weeks ago, hardcore far right hardliners are insisting on a map that creates seven Republican districts in just one democratic district. The GOP leadership wants a 6-2 map. That's essentially the same as the current map with some changes. Missouri has an unusually strong filibuster in its state Senate, and the hardliners have been filibustering for weeks now, and there is just no end in sight.
David Nir:
A couple of lawsuits have been filed asking courts to take over redistricting because of this impasse, and time is really running out because the candidate filing deadline is at the end of the month in Missouri. There doesn't really appear to be any exit strategy here at all. So it's very unclear what's going to happen.
David Nir:
Ohio is also up in the air because the state Supreme Court has struck down the GOP's congressional map as an illegal partisan gerrymander in violation of the state constitution. Republicans went and passed another map that looks very much like the first map. It seems extremely unlikely that the Supreme Court will be happy with that one. It could strike it down. Again, it's not clear where this leads. It's possible we could wind up with some sort of court drawn map, all because Republicans refuse to pass a map that is less gerrymandered than the one they're insisting on.
David Nir:
Finally, there's the strange case of New Hampshire. It only has two congressional districts. Republicans are working on a map that would try to target one of the states to Democrats by upending a district line that has been pretty much in place for 140 years. They want to gerrymander the first district. But for some reason, action has not been completed on that map, hasn't been signed. So not really sure what the delay is. But, again, the redistricting process nationwide will not be complete until these five states get their act together and actually enact new maps.
David Beard:
We'll be continuing to track this, and once these maps do get finalized, whenever that is, we'll definitely bring you full analysis of the results of those maps. One other follow-up that I wanted to make from a previous thing that we talked about, two weeks ago we discussed Jim Inhofe, the senator from Oklahoma, his prospective resignation where he announced that he would be resigning next January so that he could set up a legally questionable special election this November.
David Beard:
A question we had at the time was, is there any way to stop this or have a lawsuit about it? We weren't sure because it was unclear who might bring that suit or half standing. Somebody is at least giving it a go. Republican attorney, Stephen Jones, is asking the Oklahoma Supreme Court to bar the state's election board from carrying through with this special election that's been called later this year.
David Beard:
Jones gained prominence nationally for representing the Oklahoma city bomber, Timothy McVeigh. He was also the GOP Senate nominee in 1990 in Oklahoma. So he's been around in the state for a long time. He's arguing that a special election can't be held until after the senator actually resigns. He's pointed to the 17th amendment, which he claims only allows the governor to call a special election after the seat has actually been vacated, not for a scheduled resignation in the future.
David Beard:
Of course, if that's true, federal laws, including the 17th amendment to the constitution, would supersede any Oklahoma state laws on the matter. Of course, the biggest question, as we mentioned, is one of standing as Jones is simply representing himself in his capacity as a citizen of Oklahoma. So it's not clear exactly what injury to him is actually taking place by this election going forward. But we will at least see this addressed in court and have an opportunity to have a judge rule on a case.
David Nir:
Another point that Jones made is that Jim Inhofe could retract his resignation, there's nothing legally binding about it, after the special election in November, which would create a totally bizarre situation of having, essentially, a fraudulent special election for a senate seat. So there really is good reason to listen to the points he's making. But like you said, we'll have to see whether a court allows him to proceed with his case.
David Nir:
Up next, we will be talking with Daniel Nichanian, who is the editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, a new digital magazine devoted to covering down-ballot elections, particularly those that affect voting rights and criminal justice. He is also a former contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections. So please stick with us when we come back.
David Beard:
Joining us today is Daniel Nichanian, also known as Taniel on Twitter. He's the founder and editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, a digital magazine that focuses on local elections, particularly in the areas of criminal justice and voting rights. He's also a former contributor to Daily Kos Elections. So a big welcome, Daniel.
Daniel Nichanian:
Hi. It's really great to be here. A huge fan, obviously.
David Beard:
Well, Bolts Magazine is a very new publication. It just launched this year. What was the inspiration for starting something like this and how did it come about?
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah. First of all, thank you for having me. It's really great to talk to you, especially about Bolts and about the work we've been doing, because you all and the work you've been doing is really an inspiration behind some of it. I think the idea behind it is that I'm someone who cares, as I'm sure a lot of people who are listening, about voting rights, criminal justice, and just really a whole host of issues where local governments and state governments have such paramount importance.
Daniel Nichanian:
The difficulty that anyone who tries to follow these issues and understand what's going on is as twofold. One, it's [inaudible 00:14:33] difficult to even know who has the authority to do what, like what does the prosecutor do? What does the sheriff do? What does the county clerk do? Obviously, in different states, those have different names. The powers of these places are different. So if you're just trying to follow these issues, it can be very tricky.
Daniel Nichanian:
And then, second, the informational structure, the void around these elections, these powers is really great. And I think that's something that anyone who's probably listening to this will really understand that that's so much of what the elections does is trying to provide resources and start filling in the gap with lower level federal elections and higher level state elections. But there's just so much to do on trying to chronicle, track, report on these local institutions.
Daniel Nichanian:
There are 3,000 counties in the U.S., and on criminal justice and voting rights, so much of what's happening is at the county level. The idea behind Bolts was to create a space, an editorial platform publication that is comfortable leaning into those questions. Doesn't have to overthink having to cover something as a national story necessarily, because those are national stories in and of themselves. There is no nowhere else to look, but the county level if you really want to think about prisons and jails and incarceration, that's really where the action is.
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah. We launched a month ago. I invite everyone to go there and both read the stories we have already, but also some of the resources we're trying to put out there, the spreadsheets and databases that try and answer some questions about who has the power to do what, and when they're elected and all of that stuff.
David Nir:
I've had a chance to check out some of your offerings, Daniel, and it really is so much in common with what we do at Daily Kos Elections. You mentioned these spreadsheets of detailed information about these hyper-local elections. We try to get down into the weeds at DKE. But you guys are getting even further at the county level. Why don't we drill down a bit? You mentioned voting rights. Of course, that's going to be top of mind for every progressive in the wake of Donald Trump trying to steal the 2020 election.
David Nir:
Of course, not just that, but the ongoing efforts to allow Trump to pull off what he couldn't do in 2020, the attempts by the GOP to entrench themselves and really undermine democracy. Of course, there are high level stories that do get national attention, but what are you seeing as the biggest stories on this really local county level that you're tracking at Bolts?
Daniel Nichanian:
I think more and more people have come to appreciate the importance of county and local officials in the apparatus of how elections run since 2020, because of what happened specifically in November and December. Millions of people were suddenly watching in Wayne county in Michigan, this board of canvassers that no one had really ever heard of. Suddenly was so important, and it's obviously more appreciation for that.
Daniel Nichanian:
There is also appreciation now I think that there wasn't about attempts on the right to take over a lot of these offices, clerk offices, board of canvassers, and so on, that really control the machine of elections. To some degree, we don't quite know all of that, that can be done in these offices because a new candidate is running for them, potentially in some places trying to take over these county offices.
Daniel Nichanian:
In 2022 and 2024, it could come into play in terms of the biggest story being overturning of the elections. What I think Bolts is trying to do is fill in the space for people who understand that there's this problem now, but don't necessarily know where to go as a result, other than this big national story. What are the hotspots? What are even the officials that are relevant in any state? Because as I'm sure everyone who listens understands, in every state has a totally defense system of who runs these elections locally.
Daniel Nichanian:
Actually, on day one of Bolts, we had a research database published that drills down on every state, in each of the 50 states, on who are the officials at the county level who run elections and run the registration process, and being able to, from that, gain more traction at the level of the county clerks and potentially in some cases statewide levels. One other maybe should stay at the level of generality still. But one thing we're also seeing now is the importance of state courts for voting rights.
Daniel Nichanian:
The Supreme Courts of Ohio, and North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have played a huge role in the past few months alone in who gets to draw the maps and how aggressive the maps are going to be for those swing states. All of those states are going to have elections again for state Supreme Courts in 2022, 2024. That's another type of story that is becoming more and more clear for people, that the more the federal court systems become closed off to claims about redistricting and voting rights, the more these state courts are becoming the central voting rights story, and one that the writer is obviously very, very aware of. And so, we'll see how much attention there is on the other side.
David Nir:
Yeah. We have definitely talked a lot of about the state Supreme Court elections, both at Daily Kos Elections and on this podcast. Looking toward this fall, what elections do you see both on the state level. But also if you want to drill down to the county level, we love getting down into the weeds. So the more specific you want to get, the better. What are the top races that you see taking place in November?
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah. I mean, there's so much to watch. I think number one will be the places where Trumpkin candidates really running on platforms of "Stopping the steel", arguing that '22 election was stolen, and gesturing towards things they're going to do in 2020 to 2024, 2024 mostly, to crack down on these false claims of fraud. At the highest, the most obvious level candidates like Kari Lake who's running for governor in Arizona. There's many candidates in Arizona, in Georgia, in Ohio, who are running for the secretary of state positions on similar claims.
Daniel Nichanian:
I think what is becoming very apparent is that can that candidates or incumbent Republicans who are not really part of that crowd, first of all, always were obviously doing things that were threatening voter access. It felt like they waited for Trump and for 2020 to suddenly start purging voters, to start closing down polls. This has been a very, very, very, very long game on the right. Some of that are starting to take on increasingly the language of widespread voter fraud in the context of 2020 to argue for more.
Daniel Nichanian:
We are seeing that in Ohio, for instance, where the Republican incumbent in the race for secretary of state, is known as an establishment Republican. But he has started to talk more and more about fraud as well. So that's a story to watch on how far they're going to go. At the county level, we've already seen some elections, one, for instance, in Texas a month ago, by Stop the Steal candidates, both at the federal level and county level. So that's something to continue watching what kind of authority they're going to accumulate.
Daniel Nichanian:
There's so many judge races, and I was mentioning the ones that have to do with... The more obvious ones are the state Supreme Court races. The majority in North Carolina is at play for instance in 2022. One election that we are paying attention at Bolts and we ran a story on is in Franklin County in Kentucky, which is a very small county, but it also is where the state capital is, in Kentucky. As a result, a lot of the lawsuits in Kentucky, that have to do with voting rights or civil rights end up going in front of this very court that only has two judges sitting on the bench.
Daniel Nichanian:
Conservatives are trying to oust a judge who's been on that bench for 16 years this year. The conservative candidate has already gotten a lot of funding actually from conservative groups that are attached to Mitch McConnell. The incumbent has just a fraction of that amount of money. That, to me, seems like the kind of race that the right has been very good at identifying, seeing, finding, giving to, but are just undercooked on the left, that people on the left are not paying enough attention to them.
Daniel Nichanian:
And then, the last thing I also want to mention, I think we just talked a lot about the Trumpkin candidates and the Stop the Steal candidates. But there's so many people who are also running for these offices from a progressive standpoint, that feel like not enough is done from a county position, but also a statewide office, to expand the ballot. I mean, we are seeing still states not have automatic voter registration, online voter registration, or the questions about rights restoration.
Daniel Nichanian:
Some of that is also governed at the level of state officials and local officials, and they don't necessarily need a law to be passed. So I think some of that paying attention to the progressive candidates as well will be interesting. Just one example, there was a bill in New Mexico a month of ago that was meant to do so much on voting rights, including pass AVR—automatic voter registration—restore the right to vote to anyone who's not in prison, and a number of other things.
Daniel Nichanian:
It's a democratic state with huge democratic majorities, and the bill failed in part due stalling by Republicans, but also by Democrats. So paying attention to who stalled that, who is running to make sure that in places where it's not about Republicans, the things are also moving towards universal suffrage.
David Nir:
You raise such an interesting point. We think about so many of these elections, especially for local office, as really defensive actions about trying to prevent these Trumpers and Stop the Steal types from getting into office. But you point out that progressives can do a whole world of good when they win these races. Are there any interesting examples that come to mind of a progressive winning something like a county clerk's office in recent years, where they have really instituted reforms that have helped expand access to the ballot?
Daniel Nichanian:
Well, the thing that immediately comes to mind when I hear your question is not quite that. There was just an election in Texas, in Travis County, which is Austin, also the bluest part of Texas, for the clerk position. What was interesting in that election is that it's obviously operating under massive constraint of the Republican law that passed last year, but also earlier laws that we box in what an official can do at the local level in these blue areas.
Daniel Nichanian:
We ran an article where both of the Democrats who were running were talking about the importance of getting creative, of getting creative and trying to find ways within the law to continue pushing as much as possible, even if the Republicans have constrained that. For instance, in 2020, a huge story in the fall was someone else in Texas, in Houston. The county clerk there had really gone very far in trying to make sure that it's as easy as possible to vote, including having some places that were open for 24 hours a day.
Daniel Nichanian:
We didn't see that in our other places that had democratic the clerks in Texas. Now that specific reform has been banned by the Republicans. But these candidates in Austin we're talking about trying to extend... I think now polls can be open until 10:00 PM. So trying to make sure that they're being as creative as possible in getting there.
Daniel Nichanian:
The other thing that immediately comes to mind is something that is so at the control of local officials, is how easy it is for people who are in jail to vote... By people in jail and people who have never been convicted of a felony and are just being held on bail or are being held pretrial and have the right to vote. By law, they should have access to the ballots, but that very, very frequently, almost always, really depends on the goodwill of the sheriff, or of the county clerk, or of the work between them of making it possible. We are starting to see, in a few places, efforts by sheriffs and clerks to make that a little easier.
Daniel Nichanian:
Again, in Houston, actually there was a polling place set up at the jail. It's one of the only places in the entire country for people who are held in jail, but are eligible to vote to have access to the ballot as easily as possible. That's something that we really only see in a few places and that anyone could try and ramp up around the country.
David Beard:
That really transitions us really well into the other big issue that Bolts Magazine covers, which is criminal justice and criminal justice related elections. We've seen that district attorney races have really become much more prominent in recent years. We've had a number of big races in big cities across the country where progressive DA candidates are challenging incumbent establishment candidates. How have you seen those races evolve really in the past five or 10 years to where they are today?
Daniel Nichanian:
Oh, the change on the elections has been really huge. I think the very first thing to say about them is the very fact that we're in conversation about them, is something that has evolved over the past five to 10 years. Of course, they were the elections a long time ago. Some of them were very high profile in some cases, especially when they involved someone who had particularly extreme views or particularly controversial record. But those were I think extreme cases, typically.
Daniel Nichanian:
The fact that the vast authorities that DAs have to shape the criminal justice system and the scope of incarceration, and that that has come into you not just in extreme cases where someone is particularly where just there was outrageous cases that really land them, like everyone can immediately see. But the cases that do take explanation and understanding that within the scope of what someone can do within the law, before we go to what is illegal or unethical that prosecutors do, there's such a huge amount of difference that can be done.
Daniel Nichanian:
There's more and more candidates that have different platforms than the traditional approach of prosecutors has been for the past 20, 30 years. There's been more and more candidates who have jumped in, who are using the elections as a path to lowering incarceration and changing approaches to criminal justice. The modest candidates have come in really since the BLM movement started in 2014, 2016 and picked up steam from there. That's really when these offices became more into the view of the mainstream conversation.
Daniel Nichanian:
As there are more and more candidates who jump in, there are more and more issues, I think, that are being debated. A lot of conversations, like for instance, there are many more candidates now who are running on platforms of saying they will never file charges when it comes to some lower level offenses, like certain lower level drug offenses. There was an election in 2018 where the person was elected of Boston, ran on such a platform of not charging.
Daniel Nichanian:
It was a huge deal in the sense that they weren't that many who had run on that. But now it's become more common for candidates to run for these offices saying something like that. That has changed a lot.
David Beard:
We've seen some real successes in electing progressive district attorneys. And then we've seen some equally strong pushback from a lot of the establishment, particularly sometimes within the district attorney offices themselves, from police officers and police unions. We've seen Larry Krasner in Philadelphia, George Gascon in Los Angeles, Chesa Boudin in San Francisco were all some notable examples of progressive victories that then received a lot of pushback.
David Beard:
Boudin in particular is facing a tough recall election later this year. What have you seen the establishment strategy having been, and what do you think are the best ways to push back against this when they come after these progressive DAs who have been elected?
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah. I think it's important to take a step back here in thinking about this question, because it really gets to the prior question we were talking about. When you think about someone like Krasner, or Boudin, or Gascon, or really a lot of other people around the country, those maybe have been the highest profile, but also places like Austin, Texas, the suburbs of Washington, D.C., in Virginia and a number of other places, if you had told people in 2016, 2017, that candidates, which is just four or five years ago, that candidates with such profiles and such platforms would come into office on the stuff they're saying, it would be such a humongous break with the status quo.
Daniel Nichanian:
Not just in recent years, but of 30 years of approaches to criminal justice, which is that the candidates were not career prosecutors. They're people who really have spent their life as their career trying to lower incarceration and champion civil rights. The idea they would come in and change these offices from the inside was really just foreign to what was happening up until 2015, 2016. There's already been such a humongous shift.
Daniel Nichanian:
A lot of the people who are invested in like the other side of this debate, in keeping approaches that are more punitive, whether it's on lower level offenses like the war on drug, or on higher level offenses, because we're also speaking now much more than until three, four years ago about violent crime and approaches to very long incarceration and these higher level crimes, and what is the best way to promote safety to them. There's all these new conversations.
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah, there's a lot of pushback from criminal prosecutors, from police unions. Also increasingly, from Republican statewide officials who are paying attention in a new way to what's happening at the local level, and are looking for ways to preempt it in some places, for instance, there's a Republican candidate who's running for governor in Pennsylvania who might win the nomination. One of his proposals is that Philadelphia should no longer get to elect its DAs. Every other part of Pennsylvania should get to elect their DAs themselves, but not in Philly. And we're seeing some of that elsewhere as well.
Daniel Nichanian:
We're also seeing some pushback within the Democratic Party, especially the past year as crime has increased around the country, including places that don't have anything like a reform DA at their helm. There's been concerns about crime that has led people to champion going back to tough-on-crime policies. I think 2022 is going to be a big test of that. I think people are just used to the idea that tough-on-crime wins elections. I think that's something that's been ingrained in anyone who has followed American elections, for any time since the past 25, 30 years.
Daniel Nichanian:
I mean, anyone who's grown up watching clips of... I mean, CNN always in every presidential season show the clip of the '88 presidential debate where Michael Dukakis famously didn't answer a question on the death penalty the way he was supposed to it. So there's just been ingrained that tough-on-crime wins elections. What we have seen in 2016 and 2017, that that's no longer the case in a lot of these elections, and people are surprised by that.
Daniel Nichanian:
For instance, in Philadelphia, Larry Krasner was meant to be in a ton of trouble in 2021 because he was up for reelection. He won by a lot in both the primary and the general election. And I think 2022, he's going to continue being a test of that question. And-
David Nir:
If you were going to be giving advice to someone like a Chesa Boudin who, as we mentioned, is up for a recall in June, about pushing back against these establishment attacks, what might you say?
Daniel Nichanian:
I think, first of all, that people under-appreciate the degree to which, in many of the places that we are talking about, there's been such an awareness with the harms of mass incarceration because so many voters know someone who has been in prison, who has been in jail, who has lost the right to vote. If you put a ton of people in prison and jail over this long period, there is a very different awareness of the harms of incarceration than there may have been when in incarceration was much lower.
Daniel Nichanian:
I think the candidates we're talking about have been aware of that and have been able to talk to that in a way that's very different by the candidates. And I think they're continuing to do so. One thing that's new this year is there is a lot more conversation and pushback around the rise of violent crime around the country, that I was just discussing. It is very important for anyone who is running on a progressive platform, on a reform platform, to talk about why they think their policies are addressing the harms of mass incarceration and racial injustice, but are also important to promote safety and approach the question of safety in a different way.
Daniel Nichanian:
We saw some of that go both ways, I think, in 2021. I think there was a rehearsal in a lot of elections for mayor in particular, where there were a lot of progressive candidates for mayor who were trying to make the case that we really have it wrong, that addressing crime really means much more investments in transit and housing. We're talking about their platforms on transit and housing and other issues as something that contributes to safety, which isn't necessarily new.
Daniel Nichanian:
But I think it's very important because it's not the kind of thing that is going to happen overnight, and having those conversations is going to be very important. The last thing I will say is that I think many of the arguments don't really hold up because when you look at the places where crime has increased, as I was saying, it's increased in so many places that do not have anyone like a reform DA at their head in places with Republican DAs or the many places that don't have... That democratic DA has no particular inclination towards reform.
Daniel Nichanian:
We're seeing the same trends. There's the argument that there's something specific about places like over in Virginia or Philadelphia where the argument is made against the reform camp, just doesn't necessarily hold up in that aspect. It's just very hard to make that argument in the electoral context because that doesn't quite... It doesn't necessarily work to point out the statistics elsewhere in the country or something like that. So I think the being able to connect reforms to improvements of safety is going to be especially important.
David Beard:
Beyond the San Francisco recall that we talked about a little bit, what are some of the key district attorney races on your radar, either in the primaries or in the general election this fall, and particularly any new progressive challengers that you're excited about?
Daniel Nichanian:
There's also going to be a lot of progressive candidates who are running now to take over offices that have long been in the hands of people with much more conventional approach to prosecution. The primaries I think that are most interesting are going to be in places like North Carolina. There's a lot of places around LA and San Francisco., because those are the two places where reform DAs have really made their mark and are now coming under attack.
Daniel Nichanian:
But eight to 10 California counties, the other side stuff is happening where there are progressive candidates that are trying to take over offices, that are anti reform and that have opposed reform at the statewide level. I mean, if you're in California, the chances are you are in a county with like that because there's really a lot.
Daniel Nichanian:
Another one that's very interesting is Clark in Nevada, is Clark in Nevada, which is Las Vegas, where there's a DA there who is among the most prolific in the country in seeking the death penalty in cases. Because the death penalty is an example where it really comes down to the county level. It really comes down to whether the incumbent DA wants to seek the death penalty or not.
Daniel Nichanian:
In some places, it never happens, and just a few counties account for the huge share of new death cases in the U.S. And one of them is Clark County in Nevada, and the challenger there has promised to never seek the death penalty. That in and of itself, could really change the numbers under death penalty across the country, which sounds weird to say because it's just one county. But that's really the scope that we are talking about in terms of the authority these people have.
Daniel Nichanian:
Another one I'll mention is the DAs in Boston. What's interesting in Boston, I was already mentioning it before, is the incumbent just left because she was appointed to a federal office and the Republican governor there just appointed a new DA in Boston who's actually running as a Democrat in 2022 and is facing at least one opponent. The filing deadline hasn't passed yet, so he may have others still. But that is going to be very important race because Boston was one of the key places where progressives took to power in 2018 in these offices. And it's going to be very important to follow this year.
David Nir:
This has been an absolutely fascinating discussion. We have been talking with Daniel Nichanian who is the founder and editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine. You can find him on Twitter at #Taniel, that's Daniel but with a T. But Daniel, why don't you also please tell folks how they can learn more about your work and what they can do to support it?
Daniel Nichanian:
Yeah. Well, again, it was a really great conversation. It's so much fun to talk to people who get the importance of these offices and looking at the county level, state level. Anyone who is interested in our coverage or really learning more about the races that I'm talking about, and seeing the maps we have, and seeing the coverage we have should go to boltsmag.org, and you can explore the page I was discussing that I think has been very exciting to me to have, because I've already learned so much of it, about who runs elections at the county level.
Daniel Nichanian:
You can see some of the maps about the places that are very important in elections at the county level. You can also obviously go to Twitter and find us also at Bolts Mag and on and on Facebook. We have a newsletter. We have a Support Us page and everything else that you might want to support us.
David Nir:
Well, thank you for joining us. We look forward to having you back on soon.
Daniel Nichanian:
Awesome. Thank you so much.
David Beard:
That's all from us this week. Thanks to Daniel Nichanian for joining us. The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you find podcasts. You can reach us by email at thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please like and subscribe to The Downballot and leave us a five-star rating and review. Thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya and editor, Tim Einenkel. We'll be back next week with a new episode.