This morning I hoped that new artillery barrages in Kherson Oblast were presaging a counteroffensive from the besieged city of Mikolayiv, toward Russian-occupied Kherson. It didn’t take long to confirm that yes, Ukraine’s first significant successful counteroffensive of the war has taken place.
Bottom right corner is Crimea, one of the four major axes of this war. Russian troops burst out and captured Kherson (pop. 290,000) within a couple of days, their only significant urban victory thus far. From there, they splintered into three prongs. One group headed east to help with the siege of Mariupol, which remains in Ukrainian hands despite horrific bombardment. The middle prong headed northeast (top right corner of the map above) toward Kyrvyi Rih (pop. 640,000) with a severely undersized force.
And then there’s the third prong, which is most relevant here. Russia wants the city of Odesa, just to the bottom left of this map. It is a city of over 1 million residents, and a major Black Sea port. However, to get there, Russian troops have to cross the Southern Bug river, which is where Mykolaiv and Voznesensk come in, because they have the only bridges in the area able to cross the deep river.
Russian troops got to the edge of Mykloaiv and promptly got stuck, so they did what Russia does and set up some artillery to barrage the city nonstop, punishing their defiance with mass civilian murder. A column of supposedly elite Russian marines then headed north along the banks of the Southern Bug 90 kilometers (57 miles) to Voznesensk, hoping to cross there, but got absolutely mauled. The Wall Street Journal covered the battle for the town with the headline, “A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs: In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers.” Those long supply lines got shredded (warning: graphic link).
Last night, Ukrainian artillery pummeled Kherson airport, which destroyed at least 15 Russian helicopters, but also precipitated a complete withdrawal from the airport. That was weird for two reasons: Russia has expended huge resources capturing airports around contested cities, which allows them to bypass their ground logistical chain (which is broken), and fly in reinforcement and supplies via helicopter. The second is that Russia claimed complete control of Kherson Oblast, but abandoning such a key piece of infrastructure belied that claim. You don’t see Ukrainians abandoning positions because of artillery, and the intensity of the barrages between the two sides aren’t even remotely comparable.
Well, just a few hours ago, we got confirmation that Ukraine had taken Posad-Pokrovskote, which in itself isn’t a noteworthy place. What matters is where it is located: smack center between Mykolaiv and Kherson. That means Russia has been pushed back an incredible 120 kilometers (75 miles) from Voznesensk. More importantly, Russia has been pushed out at least 35 kilometers (22 miles) from Mykolaiv—out of range of most Russian artillery. Ukraine is now less than 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Kherson airport, which would be a massive morale boost. And the airport is just outside Kherson’s city limits. With a restive populace inside the city, many secretly armed as part of territorial defense forces, all it may take is the presence of Ukrainian military over the horizon for an internal rebellion. And from all indications, Russia’s presence in Kherson is little more than a small garrison … at the moment.
Russia might as well forget that push toward Kryvyi Rih. Since it’s hard to see: Kherson is bottom circle, left is Mykolaiv, and Kyrvyi Rih is all the way up in the top right, 140 miles away.
So what next? We wait and see if Ukraine pushes forward, or if it’s content with giving Mykolaiv some breathing room from Russian artillery. (This video from Ukrainian liberators shows us a field of destroyed Russian artillery, batteries that had previously been pummeling civilians.) Meanwhile, Russia will necessarily start sweating Kherson, and will need to divert troops from its other southern prongs—either from the siege of Mariupol, or from that weird underresourced push toward Kyrvyi Rih … 200 kilometers (140 miles) away!
Obviously, it’s impossible for us to know how much firepower Ukraine has in the region and whether it can afford to make a stronger push toward Kherson. Remember: It is far easier to defend than to attack. And Russian troops aren’t just dug into defensive positions in Kherson, but they can use artillery against exposed Ukrainian attackers. That’s why Ukraine might be content with the status quo for the moment. But if they have the forces and the ability to coordinate with the resistance inside Kherson, there’s a real possibility of a (relatively) bloodless recapture of Kherson. Russian troops in the region have low morale. Outnumbered internally and outside the city, would they really have any desire to die for a war none of them asked for?
Now if you’re sitting there wondering why Russia split its invasion into four different axes, and then took that southern axis and split it into three more avenues of attack instead of massing their forces for a more effective fighting force ... well, join the club. Russia clearly thought they would be greeted by liberators and Ukraine would crumble from the shock and awe of a multipronged assault. But that fantasy was gone by the time Russia took Kherson, and they still diluted their combat power further. Whatever the reason, hopefully it leads to an early recapture of Kherson, and the further collapse of the Russian army.
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 · 7:24:00 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Uzbekistan has become one of the models for a post-Soviet republic. Cities like Tashkent and Samarkand have preserved their ancient heritage and created new public infrastructure without trying to erase buildings and statues that are relics of the Soviet era. They also have also achieved about 50% greater wealth per person than Russia and built a diverse economy. They don’t seem to be in a mood to jeopardize that growth now.
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 · 7:32:10 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia has been trying to bypass Kharkiv and open the eastern route to Kyiv since the start of the war. This does not achieve that. Izyum is a relatively small city (pop. 45,884) but its capture does better position Russian forces for a possible move south in a way that could threaten Ukrainian troops fighting on the border of the Donbas region.
