On Tuesday, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—the doomsday clock folks—took time out from pondering nuclear holocaust to consider another bleak future. That’s because images posted to Twitter showed that Russia had made use of a so-called loitering munition, in this case, a Kalashnikov ZALA Aero KUB-BLA. That device is described by its manufacturer as a “strike system designed to defeat remote ground targets.”
It’s a small UAV that, says ZALA Aero, can deliver a “special payload based on target coordinates, which are set manually or based on an image from a target guidance payload.” If it’s not clear, that special payload is an explosive.
This is a semi-autonomous “kamikaze” drone, and what concerns the atomic scientists, is precisely the “semi-autonomous” part of that description. “Assuming open-source analysts are right,” writes the Bulletin, “the event illustrates well that autonomous weapons using artificial intelligence are here. And what’s more, the technology is proliferating fast.”
To illustrate this fact, the article appeared exactly one day before the United States announced that it was sending “100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems” to Ukrainian forces. The systems here are Switchblade 300 and 600 “loitering munitions,” which advertise almost exactly the same capabilities as ZALA’s offering.
In fact, because this is 2022, you can watch dueling videos from the two munitions manufacturers.
In thinking about how these systems affect the battlefield, imagine if an individual soldier were capable of throwing a fragmentation grenade into the air, and precisely hitting a group of enemy soldiers seven miles away. Or of taking out a vehicle completely hidden behind buildings or trees—or even completely over the horizon. Add in that semi-autonomous factor, and imagine an individual soldier able to loft a weapon that can remain in the air for an extended period, searching out a specific target.
The war in Ukraine may not actually be a “world war” in the usual sense—thank goodness—but it does seem to be a war that represents the end of an era and the start of something entirely new. It would be nice to think that it’s the beginning of a period in which every national leader understands that launching a war of aggression is so costly that no possible gain is worth the expense. That’s the purpose of the ever-tightening sanctions being levied against Russia.
But at the very least, this is a war that could wave farewell to the weapons that have defined the battlefield since World War II, and arguably since World War I. Armored vehicles, first designed to survive on battlefields dominated by trench warfare, are facing a new generation of portable anti-tank weapons that have seen an astounding 717 tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and armored transports lost. That’s the verified number. And it’s just on the Russian side.
Human-portable anti-aircraft systems are extracting a similar cost on jets and helicopters. At least 13 Russian planes and 32 helicopters have already been removed from Russia’s arsenal. Also taken out: at least 8 drones. Because not only can some of those weapons designed to take down conventional aircraft work with UAVs, dedicated anti-drone systems, anti-drone guns, and even anti-drone drones.
In just three weeks of combat, Ukraine has become not just a war zone, but a laboratory. On the one hand, Russia is using the same tactics of brutality, and the same weapons, that it has deployed for decades to destroy cities and persecute its invasion. On the other hand, Ukraine is defending itself with an arsenal that increasingly depends on weapons designed to take down armor and aircraft. Where Ukraine has been less successful is in degrading Russia’s ability to inflict brutality to civilian areas — but systems like Switchblade might well help with that. Because while a soldier with a rifle can’t do anything about artillery firing from woods five miles away, a soldier with a Switchblade definitely can.
Performing effective counter-battery fire to take out enemy artillery has traditionally involved radar and essentially more artillery. Loitering munitions change that calculation. Guns that were once firing from a position “safely out of reach” just … aren’t.
By the way, if 100 Switchblades doesn’t sound like enough to make a difference, each of these systems typically includes a launcher, controller, and 10 of the one-time-use drones. So it’s not 100 units of Russian artillery potentially going down, it’s 1,000.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a limited war. Everyone should hope it remains that way. But it’s going to reshape the world economically, diplomatically, and militarily. Everyone currently in the business of making tanks, armored transport, or military helicopters … needs to diversify. And the Atomic Scientists need to worry about what happens when the “semi” comes out of “semi-autonomous,” because there’s no doubt that’s on the way.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 1:43:59 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
This is not-quite-live coverage of Putin’s speech. I’m not going to recount everything he says, especially since I’m dependent on those doing running translations. However, I’ll try to pick out anything that gives insight into where things are going.
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 · 11:03:12 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
These warnings have come repeatedly over the last few days, and have been increasing in the last 24 hours. It’s worth remembering that U.S. intelligence was right about Russia’s intentions even when many others were dismissive of the idea Putin would actually launch an invasion of Ukraine.
Friday, Mar 18, 2022 · 12:49:01 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There are now three reports of Russia drones entering NATO airspace. That includes a drone that entered Ukraine from somewhere above Poland. So far, NATO is treating these incidents as accidental, but based on everything else that’s happened, it’s also east to see them possibly deliberate attempts to provoke action on the part of NATO.
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