First two weeks of the war, per posted videos, came from infantry ambushes of Russian troops columns. Third week of the war, Ukrainian artillery suddenly emerged, and drone footage of artillery damage now seems to dominate Twitter and Telegram (like this, this, this, and this just today). Here is some of that artillery in action. This weekend, we saw the first widespread use of roadside mines and synchronized daisy-chained explosives. There were reports on Twitter, hastily pulled, that there were United States special forces (Delta Force and Navy SEALS, specifically), on the ground advising Ukrainian forces. No one will ever confirm that, but it would surprise me if there wasn’t such a presence on the ground, perhaps even wearing Ukrainian army uniforms, teaching and advising Ukrainian forces on these new tactics. (And not just US, but from all over NATO.) Ukraine’s skills seem to be rapidly improving, and maybe it’s all home-grown ingenuity, but I’d wager they’re getting help.
In my next update, I’ll take a closer look at the Ukrainian counter-offensive down south near Kherson, as more info emerges from the region. But right now, let’s take a closer look at northwest Kyiv, were Big Things are happening.
Oooh, this is exciting. You can see more clearly what’s going on with this map:
Makariv is now in Ukrainian hands, and those little dots between it and Kyiv are reportedly in Ukrainian hands. That exposes Bucha and Irpin, the current front lines on the edge of Kyiv, to a southern flank. And just as importantly, if not more so, you can see Makariv is on a major highway connecting Kyiv to western Ukraine. With Russian forces occupying that region, Ukrainian supplies had to route south, creating potential bottlenecks and making it easier for Russians to interdict (though honestly, there were no signs Russia ever bothered trying to do so). Now, with that east-west highway cleared, it’ll be easier to resupply the capital and all points east of there.
But even more exciting, that entire northwestern Russian approach seems to be under assault from its western flank.
There are images emerging from that fight here, here, here, and here. You get the idea. But there’s better evidence of this fight. Meet FIRMS, NASA’s public satellite service tracking forest fires. Turns out, war fires are just like forest fires, so it’s a great way to track military front lines.
Here’s Kyiv region a week ago. I circled Bucha/Irpin, the front lines in the battle for Kyiv since day 1 of the war (remember the ill-fated Russian airborne assault on Hostomel airport? It was there). Kyiv is at the base of that body of water, the Kyiv reservoir. That front has been consistently hot the entire war.
Here’s Kyiv region right now:
Russia’s entire western flank is under assault.
Russia’s entire NW army is under severe assault. If that 40 km convoy is still stuck there, uh oh. Meanwhile, FIRMS isn’t showing much fire activity in Sumy and Kharkiv in the northeast axis. The Donbas front-line is the other hot-hot spot, which I’ll get to in a future update, likely tomorrow.
Overall, Russian combat effectiveness is severely depleted. Leaked Russian numbers peg their manpower losses at 9,861 dead and 16,153 injured. Roughly 26,000 out of 190,000 in the original invading force is an attrition rate of around 14%, with casualties heavily skewed towards combat troops. Remember only about 15% of the invading force is actually combat, the rest support. Rob Lee on Twitter is tracking Russian obituaries, and if you scroll through, you’ll notice that they skew heavily toward VDV forces—that’s Russia’s supposedly elite airborne troops, who have specifically deployed in this northwest Kyiv approach.
Russia is in deep shit. They’ve lost their best troops on this front, reportedly replacing them with conscripts and other scrubs. Now they’re under heavy assault by Ukrainians in an area they’ve had trouble resupplying from the very beginning. There is a very real chance this entire Russian line collapses under the pressure, not just putting Kyiv out of range of artillery, but delivering a crushing blow to Russia’s entire game plan.
Indeed, if Ukraine plays this right, taking a page out of the Taliban’s playbook, best-case scenario is to negotiate (or financially motivate) mass surrenders, earning themselves an entire army’s worth of new offensive-minded equipment. Because if they really want to reestablish territorial integrity, they’ll need plenty more armor and artillery. I can’t imagine Russian soldiers are eager to die for nothing.
Monday, Mar 21, 2022 · 10:30:10 PM +00:00 · kos
The Danes and Dutch are also interested in participating. The US has ruled out being part of it, but promised to “support” it.
Of course, there’s no peace to keep. So is this really combat reinforcements for Ukraine?
