There’s a line of thinking making the rounds, growing louder every day, that goes like this: Vladimir Putin needs to provoke involvement with the West, because that would be more honorable than losing to Ukraine.
It has its logic, right? Russia clearly harbors deep grievances over the demise of its Soviet empire, and he and his lieutenants stomp around demanding neighboring countries bow to the supposed greatness of Mighty Russia. We’re seen it in Ukraine, but man, they are supreme assholes. This is how they talk to Poland:
In a blistering social media post, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now a top Kremlin security adviser, lashed out at Poland for its support of Ukraine, reviving and escalating decades-long tensions between Moscow and Warsaw.
Poland’s surprisingly spirited defense of Ukraine would prove “expensive and pointless,” Medvedev predicted, ominously adding that he was confident that Warsaw would “make the right choice” and embrace Russia again.
The United States has its own imperialist baggage, without a doubt. But “speak softly” goes along with “carry a big stick.” Russia is a bull in a china shop. Here’s Russia bullying Sweden and Finland:
“It is obvious that [if] Finland and Sweden join NATO, which is a military organisation to begin with, there will be serious military and political consequences,” Sergei Belyayev, head of the Russian foreign ministry’s European department [...]
Russia has essentially annexed Belarus, propping up the unpopular dictator Alexander Lukashenko, after ignoring an overwhelming defeat at the polls. Russia similarly props up a repressive regime in Kazakhstan, with paratroopers recently occupying its capital to “stabilize” the country after anti-protest riots threatened the pro-Putin government. It has troops in breakaway regions of Georgia, Moldova, and Azerbaijan. Indeed, like China, Russia doesn’t really do alliances of equals. It seeks to dominate others as vassal states, seeing itself as superior creatures. That’s why they (and China) can’t fathom a NATO alliance that gives its members an equal voice in decisions. They project and think that the United States is pulling the strings. All the strings.
Yet the myth of the Russian bear is crumbling before our very eyes. It's one thing for Russia to fall to the mighty western alliance. Putin can work with that, continue to stoke nationalistic grievances toward a new Cold War, with nuclear standoffs and all. But losing to Ukraine, which Putin doesn't even recognize as a country? That is beyond humiliating!
Staying out of direct confrontation while fully arming Ukraine is the West's best course of action. Ukraine needs weapons. Lots of them. But spending that money now will save countless trillions down the road. Do it.
There's no way Ukraine is using that many missiles per day. Certainly not Stingers. The West doesn't have that many anyway. But this isn't about equipping the existing fighting force. As we discussed on Wednesday, Ukraine has a lot of soldiers. Not only is it sitting on at least 220,000 in its reserves, but it has a growing foreign legion, and a waiting list for its territorial defense forces. It’s rare to see the Ukrainian Army operating without multiple anti-tank rockets, but Ukraine could double its fighting force overnight if it had the equipment and weapons. And given the stalemate in the east, there’s time to properly train these reservists. Give them weapons, and Ukraine can further counter-attack while shoring up that sketchy eastern Donbas front.
Put another way, Ukraine doesn’t need NATO forces, it needs NATO weapons and equipment. Hand that shit over, and Russia’s defeat can be greatly accelerated, saving countless civilian lives, and the economic impact on the world’s economy (including food insecurity in the Middle East and Africa, which depends on Ukrainian grain). Later today I’ll dig deeper into what exactly the West can do to bolster Ukraine’s army, but given the slowing pace, and Russia’s shift toward defensive posture in much of the country, we now have time to build Ukraine’s offensive capabilities and bring new units online. Heck, send those reservists into Poland and start training them on western weapons systems. Why the heck not? Worst-case scenario, the war ends quicker and there’s no longer a scenario, absent the use of nuclear weapons, in which Russia ends up the victor in the near term.
And by letting Ukraine take down the Russian bear, the myth of Russia is shattered, and its ability to threaten its neighbors dramatically diminished.
Listen to Mark and Markos discuss the war in Ukraine on Daily Kos’ The Brief
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 12:17:13 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
If you have any doubts about the state of Russia’s military, observe the might of this convoy headed for Ukraine. Somewhere, the Russian equivalent of uHaul is right now putting away a lot of hastily filled out forms.
Honestly, if Russia had been making steady advances , capturing cities, and achieving consistent air superiority, such a ridiculously motley collection might be seen as a sign of the contempt Russia held for the threat in Ukraine. But this … is someone really going to waste a javelin shooting at any of these? Maybe this is the time to break out those Molotov cocktails. Or a well-aimed Nerf gun.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 12:23:34 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The biggest news in this war overnight may not have happened in Ukraine. It can be found in the combination of these two tweets.
Putin’s invasion is turning off the only reliable supply of Russian funds. And it’s turning it off much more quickly than anyone expected.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 1:04:30 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
To provide a pretext for using chemical weapons or tactical nukes, Russia is creating a narrative that U.S. bio weapons labs in Ukraine are releasing dangerous diseases across Europe, including something called “hemorrhagic flu.” That all of this is a an obvious lie doesn’t matter. It’s being done primarily for a domestic audience that will be given this story repeatedly with no alternatives, and also for the QAnons of the world, which will pick it up and run with it.
Expect to see Tucker Carlson introducing this material to his audience.
Friday, Mar 25, 2022 · 1:36:57 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports out of Mariupol are that 300 people died directly as a result of the bombing of the theater. It’s not known how many were children.
Other reports out of the city say that people have begun to starve to death.