One of the top points of conversation in the West about the War in Ukraine (outside NATO imposing a No-Fly Zone) is the on-again-off-again Mig-29 transfer to the Ukrainian air force.
I’ll say upfront that I’m not an expert in air power. My service in the Canadian Forces was with an armoured reconnaissance regiment (the 17th aka PEIR) and the last decade I’ve been heavily involved in researching and writing about the Royal Canadian Navy (shameless plug: my book Tin-Can Canucks is the definitive history of the destroyer in the Canadian Navy).
I’m not an air power expert, but Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services institute is.
I first ran across this charming gentleman when I was looking at my arguments against a no-fly zone. Like anyone who has strong opinions, I don’t like having to back down from an argument, so to eliminate that possibility I like to look at what others are saying about a topic I’m opinionated about.
Bronk wrote that “A Ukraine No-Fly Zone Would be Ineffective, Dangerous and a Gift to Putin”. While my argument against the no-fly zone has been based on avoiding escalation that could see NATO civilians targeted by Putin, I think Bronk’s article is a well reasoned argument both from a technical, and also a geopolitical perspective.
More recently I saw an interview with Bronk by Ward Carroll (an ex-Tomcat driver and Naval Institute Press Author) that changed my mind on sending Poland’s Mig-29s to Ukraine:
I’ve been supportive of the idea of transferring the Migs, both because the Mig has some excellent capabilities limited by a range that shouldn’t be an issue fighting over its home soil, but also it’s familiarity to Ukraine pilots since they fly Mig-29s themselves so I expected conversion would be straight forward for pilots and aircraft.
As you can see in Carroll's interview of Bronk, I was wrong on both of these points—at least according to two men I accept as having far more expertise in this area than I do.
Taking together with Kos’ own points about Russian-based S-400 system being able to shoot down anything flying over Ukraine that they want to (also pointed out by Bronk) I’m now convinced that transferring these Migs is something that’s a lower priority than getting more AA defences (from MANPADS to short and medium range ex-Soviet systems) and ongoing supply of all the material a fighting force needs on the ground to the Ukrainians. Perhaps after the war the Migs would be a good resource to send a rebuilding Ukraine, but the manpower required in modification of the air frames and the pilot conversion training is better allocated elsewhere.
Still, the thought of Ukrainian-flown Mig-29s taking out Russian Sukhois is such an awesome idea, I couldn’t leave it be. So I tracked down a 1/72 model kit of a Mig-29 and some Ukraine decals and will focus my spare time on building it. Competitive model building is something I’m good at.
I’ll leave the analysis of air power to Carroll and Bronk.
You can follow Justin Bronk on twitter as @Justin_Br0nk, Ward Carrol as @wardcarroll and me as @whytwolf.
edit (12:09 MST): added Twitter links