In my twitter stream there’s a debate between self-styled realists who expect an outcome of negotiated truce in Putin’s war, versus those who think the West needs to help Ukraine press for a greater victory. As I debate with myself about which is right, there’s a pretty bad scenario that stands out. Maybe not a worst case scenario, because I’m sure people here can think of even more terrible ways for things to go badly.
Anyway the biggest question is, given some combination of ideology and mortality, how motivated is Putin? Can he settle for less than empire, or is he a follower of the fascist political writer Alexandr Dugin? If the latter, he wants to retake a substantial amount of territory that belongs to sovereign nations that are part of the NATO treaty.
That would trigger Article 5 of the treaty, requiring all the allies to defend the invaded nations. And you probably know that, but the point is Putin knows that. He knows a conflict with NATO is inevitable if he persists on his project of empire. If he’s motivated and able, he will persist, and the time frame for his project will be in his lifetime. (Because he’s a narcissist, and he wants to have a big plaque about his accomplishments set alongside his preserved corpse.)
How healthy is Putin, btw? Others in my twitter stream speculate that he’s unwell. I’d add that he’s probably aware it’s only a matter of time before one or another assassin catches up with him, unless he cracks down by becoming even more fascist.
To sum up the pretty bad scenario, Putin is trying to create a fascist empire during the next several years, or at least set Russia solidly on that path. And because he’s a psychopathic narcissist, he’ll probably think of ways to prevent Russia from backing down later. Maybe he’ll choose a successor who’s as much of a traditionalist, empire-building maniac as he is.
Let’s assume for this scenario that Russian battlefield conflict with NATO allies is inevitable. The next big question is, how far will each ally actually go to meet its Article 5 obligations? We’re in a Russia-NATO war scenario on one scale or another, and Putin knows this too. He’s expecting it in his lifetime, which might be short.
Putin wants to move quickly to weaken or fracture the NATO alliance. He wants to give some of the allies cold feet about participating in ground and air battles with Russia. To do so, he demonstrates the cruelty he will inflict on those nations if they oppose him. He demonstrates that cruelty in the way he has devastated Mariupol. As with fascists everywhere, the cruelty is the point.
If Putin believes he needs to demonstrate even greater brutality, we might see the use of weapons of mass destruction. We’re already seeing his forces use white phosphorus. All of this will precede an actual invasion of one or likely several NATO allies.
This is the scenario where things keep getting worse, until somebody finally backs down, which might not happen.
And during the escalating crisis, minions local to western countries will find ways to be disruptive, both within and outside the law. We could expect computer hacks, terrorist events, or “lone gunman” situations here on non-Ukrainian soil. Because we would be at war with Russia, and Putin follows no rules.
Unless Putin is removed from power. (And even then, there are potentially very bad scenarios, but let’s not go there quite yet.)
Anyway. Unless...
All of this suggests a strategic and policy direction. Don’t focus on giving Putin off-ramps. He’ll find a way to turn every one of them to his advantage. Instead focus on providing potential off-ramps for every Russian who has power through their station or wealth. Give every one of those detestable people an incentive to remove Putin and pull back the invasion. Maybe also put the word out that anybody who doesn’t help will not be reunited with their yachts.
There’s an up-side to the fact that Russia’s powerful and wealthy individuals are for the most part detestable. Detestable people who are powerful and/or wealthy get things done, for their own personal benefit. Some of them are even war criminals. Let’s maximize the incentive for one of them to get things done, and we can proceed from there.
An aside: I said the biggest question is, “how motivated is Putin?” Another really big question is whether Russia has the military resources to continue its invasion on all the necessary fronts. Or maybe whether they have the resources to prevent being pushed back into Russia. I don’t know enough about that kind of thing to speculate. This scenario assumes they somehow have the resources, or can re-build them in whatever time they can buy for themselves. They certainly aren’t doing things very well right now.
Also it occurs to me that if Russia is losing the war, which it seems to be doing in spectacular fashion, that makes it even more urgent to take Putin out of power before he does something desperate.
Anybody is free to try to talk me down from the ledge if you like. Have a good evening.