As Ukraine moves into Thursday evening, it’s clear that Russia has abandoned any intention to confront the Ukrainian military. Instead, Russian forces are sitting back and bombing civilian population centers. In both Kharkiv and Mariupol, this means firing weapons from across the border in Russia. Zero miles from home is apparently a workable distance when it comes to keeping Russian weapons functional and supplied.
North of Kyiv, that convoy that looked so fierce (and bizarre) when it left Belarus, is still strung out along miles or road, suffering from lack of fuel, lack of food, and attacks by the Ukrainian Air Force. But the original Russian plan to surround Kyiv, march in, and install a puppet regime seems to have been replaced by the “plan” being executed by Russia at all points today: Break things. Kill people.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave an estimate on Thursday that over 9,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far in a week of fighting. Officials elsewhere have indicated that this number is fairly accurate. If so, that’s about 5% of the force that had gathered around Ukraine before the invasion. How many others have been injured or captured is unknown, but there are images of trucks carrying wounded soldiers back into Russia.
Despite surrounding Mariupol for two days, Russia has not moved into the city. Despite Russian troops being on the doorstep of Kharkiv since the start of the war, Ukrainian forces are still holding the city core. That’s because Russia isn’t trying to win the war in the sense of beating the Ukrainian army in head to head combat. It’s trying to reduce Ukraine. To destroy it’s homes, schools, hospitals, and businesses until the Ukrainian army has nothing left to defend. They’re out to be Kings of the Ash heap, just as they were in Syria an Chechnya.
Russia is using long range missiles, GRAD systems, artillery, and aircraft to murder Ukrainians en masse. That’s what this is. War without even the pretense of rules. Simply murder.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 4:52:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In a lengthy conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin refused to give any ground. No agreements for humanitarian relief. No provisions for a ceasefire. Nothing short of total conquest of Ukraine.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 4:56:02 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports that Russia is trying to take Energodar. This is the site of those elaborate blockades seen over the last two days, where civilians are placing rocks, cars, trucks, concrete, and their bodies in the path of Russian vehicles.
Energodar is well off the main road and doesn’t control any crossroad or bridge leading to other cities. The only purpose in capturing it would seem to be control of the large nuclear power plant.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 5:00:48 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
If you’ve been watching some of the multi-camera views of cities across Ukraine, you’ve probably seen that lovely glass dome that is somehow still intact in the center of Kyiv’s Independence Square.
If you’ve wondered what might be under the dome — it’s actually over the stairway leading down to the central subway station. For the moment, some of those moving down to shelter in the subways beneath the capital are still passing through this beautiful space.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 5:12:45 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Are those old handheld anti-vehicle weapons, like the ones reportedly being sent from Germany, still any good? Well …
Translation:
Man 1: “Fucking Katsapis. Get away, Zhenya!”
Man 2: “Poltava is at work. [explosion] Suck it! Glory to Ukraine!”
Katsapis is based on a Turkish term for Russians. It means “slaughterers.”
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 5:15:40 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
What’s happening in Energodar. It’s not so much that Russian tanks rolled over those people and obstacles in the road. It’s that they waited until night, and now they’re just bombing the hell out of people in their homes.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 5:28:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A broadcast speech from Putin to his own security cabinet — which notably is now not even in the room with him (desk length: infinity). In this speech, Putin insists that everything in Ukraine is going according to plan. He’s lying, of course. But it would be even more horrible if he was telling the truth.
Note that this is not the big address to the nation which is still expected in the next few hours.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 5:47:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The note indicates that these were “abandoned” rather than “destroyed.” Other links have indicated that Ukrainian soldiers came across these vehicles already burning, meaning that they either had some kind of breakdown or ran out of fuel.
It also means that Russians are getting tired of videos of Ukrainians joyriding in left behind T-72s.
This flaming bit of wreckage includes at least four short-range air defense weapons. They’re meant to keep armored columns safe from attack by air.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 6:18:03 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The negotiations in Belarus have ended for the day. There seems to be one positive outcome. However, it should be remembered that Russia also agreed to “safe corridors” in Syria in 2019. After that, Russia constantly violated the agreement. Let’s hope there is something to this.
In terms of broader agreement, there was none. Ukraine and Russia to meet again “in coming days.”