For days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been begging NATO or the UN to impose a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. That would end at least one vector of the bombardment that is leveling Ukrainian cities, and allow Ukrainian forces to defend locations or move forces without the fear of Russian aircraft.
There’s no doubt that Russian aircraft have already been a factor in this war. Some of the moves made by Russian in bringing in airborne troops have been even more disastrous than their poorly planned movements on the ground. That includes moving a handful of forces in early in an attempt to hold Hostomel airport, or dropping more forces in the Kyiv suburbs on the second night of the war, or attempts on Wednesday evening to use airborne forces in Kharkiv. In each of these cases, Russia might as well have fed these men directly into a wood chipper — then at least they wouldn’t have wasted helicopters in the process.
However, aircraft have been responsible for several of the missiles launched into Ukrainian cities, including on that punched through a school gymnasium just minutes after a Ukrainian soldier posted social media images from that location. Aircraft — both planes and helicopters — have been responsible for bombing attacks on Ukrainian towns and villages, many of which don’t have anti-aircraft systems, and they’ve allowed Russia to shuffle around some forces to get them past places like Kharkiv or Kherson that had proven to be stubborn roadblocks.
Overall, it’s easily understandable why Zelenskyy would ask for a No-Fly Zone. It’s equally understandable why no one wants to give it to him. Because declaring a No-Fly Zone isn’t enough. Someone has to enforce it. That means the U.S., or Poland, or some other NATO member has to hurry out there when a Russian plane violates the zone and either run them off or shoot them down. A No-Fly Zone doesn’t just tempt the possibility of direct conflict between NATO and Russia, it’s all the way across that line.
So what’s the alternative? It’s the one that was previously promised, and which Zelenskyy is asking for directly. Give him more planes. Multiple countries had promised Ukraine they would hand over MiG-29s and various other models of former Soviet planes that are familiar to Ukrainian pilots. But then, even as those pilots were in Poland expecting to take delivery, those transfers were called off. That’s because, as the Air Force Times reports, giving Ukraine more planes is considered “military interference in Russia’s invasion.” Anti-tank missiles? Sure. Small arms? You got it. Planes? Well, I don’t think…
This is bullshit. There are lines that definitely shouldn’t be crossed, but the West is drawing this one themselves. Give Zelenskyy the planes. Give Ukraine every damn MiG-29 on the planet. So that no one will ever actually need one of these planes again.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 9:07:57 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Several times today, there have been news stories in which members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have pushed to implement what’s called the Moscow Mechanism. Or even the Moscow Invasion Mechanism.
This does not mean the OSCE is calling for an invasion of Moscow. It means that members are calling to implement a mechanism that was worked out in Moscow in 1991 that allows for sending teams of experts into nations involved in a conflict as part of the effort to track conflicts and resolve issues. Russia is a signatory to that mechanism.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 11:33:40 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Zaporizhzhya NPP, along the Dnieper River south of the city of the same name, appears to be under attack. There was an explosion at about 1:19 AM local time, and there is now a fire burning inside the compound.
This is the plant next to the town of Enerhodar, where citizens had tried to block the road with rubble, trucks, and their own bodies to hold back Russian forces.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 11:39:44 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A better view of the plant. There have been a series of small explosions, a string of parachute flares drifting down in the plant, and what appeared to be some small arms fire. Unclear if the plant is been damaged, or if any combat is actually occurring with the compound. What’s been seen so far could have been the results of fighting outside the plant. A better view is available here: