Pressure inside Ukraine and among many of its allies for a no-fly zone over its skies has grown in recent days as Russia targets civilian infrastructure in a bid to terrorize Ukraine’s people into submission. No-fly zones have been used over Iraq, Bosnia, and Libya to limit the operation of offensive enemy aircraft, and there is a belief that Ukraine needs one to better protect itself against its Russian invaders.
However, a no-fly zone would be an overt declaration of war against Russia, creating a showdown between nuclear powers (NATO planes would be shooting down Russian violators), and it wouldn’t even protect against the weapons causing the most damage. For example, as of today, the Pentagon had counted “over 500” missile launches, most of them being these guys: the Iskander mobile ballistic missile.
Russian Iskander missile, currently raining death on Ukraine.
Dozens of these vehicles are currently sitting in Belarus raining missiles, launching death on Ukrainian targets.
There’s nothing a no-fly zone could do about these missiles. Nor is there anything it could do against the GRAD multiple launch rocket systems currently turning many Ukrainian cities to rubble.
Indeed, one of the big mysteries of the war is the near absence of the Russian Air Force. Ukrainian aircraft still operate over their airspace, which boggles the mind given the massive disparity between the two forces. From all indications, Putin is happy to throw bodies into the Ukrainian meat grinder and doesn’t seem to care much about his tanks getting destroyed. But his aircraft? Can’t lose those! Thus, the bulk of the carnage is being carried out by missiles and artillery systems.
A no-fly zone would do nothing about those missiles or artillery. To take out the missiles, you’d need an Iron Dome-type system, like the one Israel deployed against Hamas rocket attacks. It’s far too late to deploy anything like that now. Just training Ukrainians in using it would take months. And to take out artillery, drones and special operations forces operating in the enemy’s rear could make a dent.
What Ukraine needs is Stinger anti-air missiles (in the country, with hundreds more en route), and drones. Lots of drones. All the drones. Turkey accelerated delivery of drones it had purchased last year—24. Four or five have been shot down according to video from the battlefield. Can Turkey send more? And it needs intelligence, which it is getting from NATO aircraft, which can track the location of key targets.
We’ve learned, very quickly, that when properly equipped Ukraine can manage its own defense. Would the war end faster with direct Western engagement? Maybe. Or maybe it would spark a wider war, one with the potential to go nuclear. With so little upside to a no-fly zone, why would anyone outside of Ukraine (where people are understandably desperate) seriously advocate it?
Friday, Mar 4, 2022 · 4:49:15 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukrainian forces have shot down two Su-25s today. Each Su-25 costs about $11M. About 1,000 were built, but it’s unclear how many of these are still in service.
The one time Su-25s actually engaged in air-to-air combat against U.S. planes was in the Gulf War, when F-15s shot down four with no losses. Which shouldn’t be that great a surprise, since the overall record of the F-15 is 104 wins and zero losses. That should give some hint of what would happen if the U.S. did actually decide to directly counter the Russian invasion. The F-15 is now 49 years old and two generations of planes behind the current F-35.
Friday, Mar 4, 2022 · 5:39:12 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This has been an extremely bad day for Russians trying to fly anything over Ukraine. This Mi-8 transport helicopter was apparently searching for not the Su-25 pilot, but one of three brought down in the last two days. It’s unclear if any of the jets were brought down by man-carried weapons, but the helicopter certainly might have been. It could have been a stinger, or even some the older systems that Germany delivered to Ukraine in the last two days.
Friday, Mar 4, 2022 · 5:55:26 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There is a lot of video today from Hostomel airport north of Kyiv. You might remember it as the airport that was taken on the first day of the invasion by Russian airborne forces — airborne forces so confident they invited journalist in to watch their operation — only to have the Ukrainian military take them all out just hours later. The airport was retaken by Russian forces three days ago in what appeared to be hard fighting that, among other things, destroyed the largest operational plane on the planet.
And now it appears that Ukraine has the airport again. Ukrainians recapturing areas like Hostomel, Bucha, and Irpin suggests that Russian efforts to encircle Kyiv are still meeting a lot of opposition. And that’s on top of the apparently stalled convoy still spread out along roads to the north.
I have not included video from Hostomel today because the results of the battle there are among the most brutally graphic from anywhere in the war so far. I’m not trying to sanitize this war in any sense, and there are occasions when the most awful images are required to understand events. Just know that if you go searching for Hostomel on social media, what you’ll see today is likely to linger.
