Just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine was beginning, something else happened in the world that was fairly significant — the U.S. slipped out of the top spot when it comes to new cases of COVID-19. Oddly enough, that top position is now occupied by, of all places, South Korea. Two years into the pandemic, omicron blew past the steps Seoul had taken to keep the disease in check day to day, and on Friday they reported over 250,000 new cases. Other nations, such as Vietnam, which had largely been able to control the spread of COVID-19 pre-omicron are now in the midst of their worst spikes of the whole pandemic.
Over the last ten days, there hasn’t been much opportunity to do a real update on the situation with COVID-19 in the U.S. Back on the first of February, I wrote this: “Within the next few weeks, we’re going to reach a critical moment in the COVID-19 pandemic—one that will tell us whether we’re in for that long-awaited near-normal by summer, or whether we’re going to go on fuming and arguing over the appropriate level of social distancing indefinitely.”
The good news here is that the U.S. has punched through the “floor” left behind by delta. Even with the BA.2 sub-variant becoming more common, daily case counts and deaths continue to decline. The U.S. is now all the way down at the #10 spot worldwide when it comes to daily cases, and at the moment the math suggests that cases are going to flatten out for a few months between about 20,000 and 30,000 cases a day nationwide. That’s about twice as many as the U.S. experienced in the pre-delta spring and summer of 2021, but its by far the best that conditions have been at any other point in the pandemic. Don’t throw away all caution, but the current conditions are getting better.
However, it’s very much worth noting that one of the nations currently in the top ten list, with a daily count of new cases twice that of the U.S., is Russia. Ukraine was also not in good shape — recording 25,000 new cases on Feb 24. Which was, understandably, the last time anyone in Ukraine was lining up to take a COVID-19 test.
Right now in Ukraine there’s no doubt that the greater threat is death by Russian bullet, bomb, or missile than anything that might come from COVID-19. But what’s happening in Ukraine isn’t just an invasion, it’s an invasion taking place in the middle of a pandemic, between two nations that were among those being hit the hardest in the world. Both soldiers and civilians are crowded together, under stress, poorly fed, and generally in every condition you don’t want to see facing a pandemic. What this means for either Russia or Ukraine isn’t clear. It’s also not clear how much effect this will have on nations like Poland which is seeing an influx of over a million refugees. For the most part, this is likely to be just one more misery heaped on top of all the rest.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 4:52:39 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In the read out of a call between Israeli PM Bennett and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy that was published earlier this week, Zelenskyy asked Bennett to act as a potential mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Several other leaders have put themselves, and their nations, forward as potential mediator.
The question is if Putin is ready to listen to anyone.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 4:55:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia is now saying it has “resumed offensive actions” after a “ceasefire earlier in the day to allow residents of two besieged cities to evacuate.”
All on the ground accounts indicate that this “cease fire” last just long enough for about 400 people to escape Mariupol before Russian troops opened fire. Russia is now, of course, blaming the end of the short-live “humanitarian corridors” on Ukraine.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 5:28:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukrainian forces have reportedly turned back a major Russian attack on Mykolaiv. This is a regional capital which is about 30 miles further along the road that runs through Kherson. The fight reportedly included Ukrainian army, regional defense forces, and even the Mykolaiv police.
Military analysis in both Russia and Ukraine is looking increasingly at the south half of the country. Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv have held out against all assaults. Russia is having more success in Kherson and Melitopol, and in encircling Mariupol. Whether or not Ukraine can provide any relief to these areas is a good measure of their military’s ability to do more than slow down the Russian advance.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 7:05:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In case you forgot that this would happening, there are currently a few dozen trucks hanging around Maryland, some of which have come all the way from California to protest … mask mandates that don’t exist? Vaccinations they’re not required to get?
The last thing the group settled on seemed to be a protest of jail sentences for Jan. 6 criminals. Which is a protest that would not exactly win a lot of converts at the moment.
But in any case, Nancy Pelosi is going to be so disappointed that the didn’t fall into her trap.
The people of Ukraine need your help. Over a million refugees have already fled Putin’s invasion, and the situation is only getting worse. If you can, please donate to these charities helping the Ukrainian people in this desperate hour.