The fight may be in Ukraine, the burden may be on Ukraine, but it’s not just Ukraine’s fight. The outcome of the contest now taking place in Ukraine is going to affect everyone on the planet for decades to come, if not longer.
At the most drastically awful end of the scale, there are analysts who suggest that Vladimir Putin will almost inevitably be tipped into using nuclear weapons, at least a the tactical level, opening the door on a dreadful future where such weapons are absolutely thinkable on any battlefield. At the opposite end of the scale, there is the possibility that the unity of the world in opposing Russia, and the cost enacted on its economy, could show that there is no longer any possible benefit in a war of conquest.
There is no outcome that says “things go right back to the way they were.” We’re past that.
Ukraine is one nation, but that nation isn’t just pinned in a battle between East and West, it’s the pivot point around which the world is now turning. Every day that Ukraine holds out against Russian invaders, every helicopter brought down, every tank hauled off by laughing farmers, every negotiation on the border with Belarus, every phone call between Volodomyr Zelenskyy and other world leaders, every kid signing in a bomb shelter … it all matters. It will all keep on mattering.
This isn’t something that’s going to be forgotten in a month or a year or a decade. This, right now, is going to shape the world we all live in, for better or worse.
We’re all walking a narrow line right, between ending up on one end of that scale than the other. There are many reasons to be thankful that Joe Biden is president rather than Donald Trump, but I can’t think of one more important.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 10:43:31 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
President Biden’s announcement banning Russian oil and gas is up at the White House site’s “briefing room.”
“We’re banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy. That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports, and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin’s war machine. …
People everywhere — and I think it’s maybe even surprised some of you all — people everywhere are speaking up for freedom. And when the history of this war is written, Putin’s war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger.”
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 10:45:55 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This may be the most tenacious “warning” in history. Mykolaiv’s governor says they’re preparing for an upcoming Russian attack, and sets the scale of that attack by … predicting how many buses they’ll need to haul off Russian prisoners.
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 · 11:51:21 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Military Land’s daily summary of the invasion is up.
- Kyiv: Russia forces have once again entered several northwest suburbs and are establishing positions there.
- Sumy: Russian planes bombed residential areas, killing 21 people, but the humanitarian corridor has actually allowed a substantial evacuation.
- Kharkiv: An airborne assault of “about 120 soldiers” on three helicopters attempted to enter the city, but Ukrainian regulars and Territorial Defense Units repelled the attack. “A dozen of Russian soldiers were killed, the rest retreated towards the Russian border.”
- Mariupol: A humanitarian corridor was opened to allow civilians to evacuate, instead Russian forces used the corridor to seize territory. Civilians didn’t get out. Russians are closer to city center.
- Kherson: More protests, but no military action.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2022 · 12:00:04 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Whatever is going on with those Polish MiGs seems best described as a “mess.” It seems Poland wants to get them to Ukraine, but doesn’t want to be the one who directly hands them over. The U.S. claims to not know about the swap and ship deal.
Unclear now if Ukraine is going to end up with any planes, even though everyone seems to agree they need them.
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