DO NOT TAKE THIS AS ME BEING ANTI-VACCINE. I AM 100% PRO-VACCINE. THIS ARTICLE IS MEANT TO LOOK AT THE NEXT STEPS IF THE VACCINES LOSE THEIR EFFICACY.
So far, the mRNA vaccine has been a godsend. Without it, we could have been in for a world of pain with triple the number of dead and that many more suffering from Long COVID, which is like a living death on its worst days. The mRNA vaccines have cut down on the chances of severe COVID, hospitalization and death, and even Long COVID among those who are vaccinated and boosted.
However, there are problems developing in vaccine paradise, which seem to be mounting with every new subvariant and dose. We are so wedded to vaccines meaning the end of the pandemic that we have put aside all of the other protections that at one time were adopted to protect against COVID. I’m not talking lockdowns — but masking, social distancing, and similar mitigation measures.
It would be a catastrophe if the vaccines stop being highly effective, and that may be what is starting to happen with mRNA vaccines. When “Infection + 2 shots” holds up better than “2 shots + boosters”, we see the problem as outlined below.
FULL THREAD HERE
The problem seems to be around the mRNA boosters. The law of diminishing returns seems to be hitting them HARD, which means that we cannot boost our way out of the pandemic and that eventually the boosters will fail to work. We may have to change strategies to make the boosters more like a live attenuated virus. This of course carries its own risks — as an example the polio virus is mostly vaccine derived these days in the world. But what other choices do we have?
I will explain more below the fold.
WHy is This a Problem?
The problem lies within the fact that we are still using the same mRNA vaccine that was effective and trialed almost two years ago and the virus has and is rapidly changing. The mRNA vaccine campaign needed to have reached vaccine immunity within a certain amount of time for it to have completely stopped COVID as was the bill of goods sold to us at the very beginning to encourage us to take this new vaccine. That conflation of “vaccine = end of pandemic” has probably been the second MOST damaging piece of information told to us by the Biden-Harris administration, only with “COVID is not airborne” beating it out. The goal posts are being moved as we speak.
Omicron is seriously re-infecting EVERYONE, regardless of vaccine status. Luckily, the vaccines seem to be holding the line still and leading to a mild illness for the majority of those getting sick. That still has ramifications as will be outlined below, but the agonizing death that overran hospitals that was the hallmark of previous surges seems to be a nightmare of the past.
The Omicron infection is also hopefully priming our immune system and providing even more protection. I hope that is true because the latest hospitalization data regarding the virus and the vaccines is scary stuff.
The vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization keeps dropping… this is why I think we are in for a world of pain next fall/winter…
Immunity from a bout of COVID-19 may provide some protection against the virus, but a new study suggests it may not be enough to keep you out of the hospital.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention partnered with Epic Research, which shares data to advance medicine and public health, to determine how effective vaccines and boosters are against hospitalization from reinfection.
Researchers looked at electronic health records from over 50,000 patients during both the delta and omicron waves who tested positive for COVID-19 more than three months after a previous infection.
"People had good immunity from (the original strain of the virus) after getting COVID the first time, but after going through the delta period and now the omicron period, we wanted to see what the public health impact would be," said study author Dr. Jackie Gerhart, a physician and vice president of clinical informatics at Epic Research.
During the delta wave, they found a two-dose mRNA vaccine series was about 47% effective against hospitalization due to reinfection and a booster dose was more than 57% effective, according to the study published Tuesday in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
More recently during the omicron wave, the two-dose series was about 34% effective and the booster dose nearly 68% effective.
It doesn’t help when the Omicron strains of COVID are starting to develop the mutation that made Delta so dangerous and deadly. This development is just starting to happen in BA.2, and it appeared nearly simultaneously in BA.4/BA.5 as well. Clearly, it is highly advantageous for COVID to have this mutation if it keeps popping up with each variant.
FULL THREAD
Lost by focusing on the acute phase is the fact that Long COVID is still occurring with every infection. The vaccines aren’t preventing that from happening. Here is an excerpt I pulled out from the article below (emphasis mine).
From published data, the chances of long Covid in those who are vaccinated but suffer breakthrough infections may be halved, but when you apply this to the huge waves we’ve experienced – 3.5 million people infected at a given time – each 3.5 million cases becomes another 175,000 people with long Covid.
This slow rolling nightmare is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. By lowering our guard and allowing this virus to flourish, we risk disabling millions or possibly even BILLIONS of people over the course of their lifetimes. And there are other potential consequences as well.
What Are the Possible Consequences?
I’m going to let this section stand on its own, without my commentary.
Disability Advocates Saying CDC Not Doing Enough to Fight COVID
After the omicron wave of COVID-19 receded earlier this winter, states and cities across the country moved quickly to ease mitigation measures, leaving many officials hopeful that the virus would soon be in the rear-view mirror, ahead of the looming midterm elections in November.
What are the immunocompromised facing as pandemic may be easing?
Much of the public rejoiced when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced it would update its guidance for face coverings, giving the vast majority of Americans the green light to ditch masks indoors, if they lived in an area of low or medium risk.
However, for some high-risk populations, like the 7 million Americans living with weakened immune systems from cancer treatment, transplants or immune deficiencies, a return to pre-pandemic normalcy is still not on the horizon. The CDC's new guidance came with a caveat for the immunocompromised; the agency is still recommending that those at increased risk keep face coverings on.
FULL THREAD
FULL THREAD
What Can we DO?
1) Strengthen the currently failing test to treat program, especially in rural and underserved communities.
2. Increase the supply of Paxlovid, and have doctors start prescribing it more often.
Paxlovid Being Underutilized As People Still Die of COVID
More than 500 people are still dying of Covid-19 every day in the U.S., but an ample supply of a highly effectively antiviral drug is sitting on shelves, unused.
The drug, Pfizer's antiviral pill Paxlovid, was authorized for emergency use for high-risk people in December. Clinical trials found that a five-day course cut a patient's risk of hospitalization and death by 89 percent.
Supplies of the pills initially were extremely constrained, with limited doses doled out to states each week. As the omicron variant of the coronavirus spread, doctors and patients scrambled to find the pills.
Now, four months later, the supply of the potentially lifesaving medication has rapidly improved in the U.S., but in a twist, physicians don't seem to be prescribing much of it.
3. Accelerate work on a nasal spray that can prevent or treat COVID quickly. A COVID nasal spray is doing well in trials in mice.
4.Use other tools that are not as controversial as mask mandates/lockdowns to help fight this pandemic. This author outlines four holes we need to fill NOW to get a handle on this disease.
Conclusion
While most believe the pandemic is about over, I’d argue that in the fall and winter we will be unprepared for a nasty surprise — a resurgent COVID that will have a bite to go along with all of its bark once again. It is important that we keep monitoring situations like Shanghai and Upstate New York to make sure that the virus isn't mutating to the point where our first line of defense, the mRNA vaccine, isn’t ruptured and rendered ineffective. I keep bringing up the Swiss Cheese Model for a reason, because that is what is needed to keep people safe during the pandemic. Too many nations are either *cough* USA *cough* removing slices of cheese right now or *cough* China *cough* insisting that their cheese isn’t Swiss. It is time to fucking set our hubris aside and admit that we aren’t as clever of a species as we seem, and that this virus has licked us good and will continue whaling on us for the foreseeable future.