Eliminationist, perigenocidal rhetoric was a part of the Republican Party for decades, albeit a fringe. A levee separated what was talked about in polite quarters on the Sunday Morning shows from what swam in the recesses of the lower tier talk radio shows, and later the vilest of Internet sites. Trump was the first, in many ways, to breach this barrier.
But why was there such a barrier in the first place? Remember, the purpose of the Murdoch Media empire et al. was not just to drag the National discourse rightward and electorally kneecap Democrats, it was to constantly keep the crazy at bay. Republican strategists knew the fringe was electorally toxic. Think Todd Akin, who blew an easily winnable Senate race in a red state.
The President’s Party almost always has a bad midterm. Democrats don’t hold a large majority in the House, and the Senate is split evenly. President Biden hasn’t been that popular, although I don’t believe the polls are accurately capturing his approval. It would have been safe for Republicans to assume that the thing that always happens would just happen again.
So why take on a crazy pandering strategy of reigniting the culture war? Remember Todd Akin? The culture war was “lost” June 26, 2015 when the Supreme Court ruled in Obergefell v. Hodges. The 2016 and 2020 Elections were hardly about cultural issues. Republicans attempting to get the culture war going again is like Vladimir Putin trying to get the Soviet Union back together by invading Ukraine(1) .
And in just the past few weeks, Republican recommitment to the culture war crazy has only gotten worse:
One of the abiding features of early 21st century American politics is that a lot of change on the right happens in the subterranean world of what we used to call “the Crazy.” In the pre-Trump years it’s not that any of this was really hidden. ... But it was off the radar of most of conventional journalism and the mainstream political discourse because it wasn’t serious. It wasn’t real. It was just crazy antics on the margins. But as we’ve tried to chronicle for decades now, that was never the case. That was the real GOP politics. It controlled and drove the presentable mainstream leaders — the Boehners, Ryans, McConnells and more. The ascension of Donald Trump was in many ways a simple inversion of this dynamic, putting “the Crazy” in formal and open leadership of the party… Something has happened as recently as the last four to six weeks that follows this pattern, is important and dangerous and is still mostly coasting under the radar of “proper” U.S. political discourse and reporting.
Why engage in such electorally risky behavior? Because Republicans can read the same demographic trends we do, and they’re terrified.
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The younger generation is more diverse than any preceding generation:
Source: Pew (2011)
Different ethnicities have starkly different attitudes towards things that matter to the right. For example, opposition to gun control is a purely white phenomenon.
I acquired this image from a groyper account, fearing for his future in Texas.
While all generations have become more tolerant of same sex marriage, younger generations are more tolerant than older.
Do Republicans think revoking rights once granted in this Country is the way to reverse that trend?
Younger generations are also least likely to religiously affiliate, with regular church attendance being strongly correlated to voting republican.
Remember, this is just religious affiliation. Regular attendance would be lower.
The Pew Study is exhaustive, but it isn’t the only one to find the same results. The Washington Post found the same results in 2012, with a writeup from former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson that now sounds quaint in hindsight:
...Republicans and conservatives will be forced to make some adjustments over time.
The millennial shift will influence the way conservatives argue. The tone of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum on social issues during the recent primary season — itself a throwback to the early days of the religious right — will not be an option. Republican rhetoric will need to be oriented toward shared moral aspiration instead of harsh judgment.
It’s been said that all generations become more conservative as they age, but this is not entirely true. How generations initially vote tends to leave a lasting bias towards how they vote in subsequent generations.
There is a strong, older Republican contingent. But this was generated in 2011, meaning these ages are now 10 years older.
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The above graphs don’t yet include Generation Z, which Pew studies separately. Suffice it to say the same social trends discussed progress to the younger generations.
What does all this translate to?
Electoral vote map in 2020 is only those age 18 to 40 voted. It is safe to assume that come 2024, this map would represent 18 to 44 year olds.
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If we had a functional media (the topic for a separate diary), the Sunday Morning discussion would be whether the Republican midterm strategy makes sense? Or whether it is alienating younger generations? My suspicion is that there is no strategy, and current actions are a blind panic slash rage towards a changing America. But none of our esteemed pundits would dare press that question. Still, let us not presume what we’re seeing, as dangerous and harmful as it is, is borne from some great strategy.
This is the dangerous behavior of a cornered wild animal.
Notes:
(1) Just as Vladimir Putin has the capacity to do great damage fighting an ultimately losing war, Republicans will have the same affect reigniting the culture war. Questioning their actions in no way means to belittle the very real risk Republicans pose. If you know someone who is LGBTQ+ and maybe not paying attention to politics please share Josh Marshall’s article with them.
