The French newspaper, Le Monde, calls the final push before the first round of voting on Sunday, April 10, a race against time for Macron. The chart below shows the trend indicated by polls conducted over the last two month.
Macron’s lead skyrocketed after Russia’s war in Ukraine began, a rally round the flag effect, according to Le Monde. By March 10, he was leading his nearest opponent, Marine Le Pen, by 13 points. Now, that lead has been cut in half. www.lemonde.fr/...
So, what happened? Macron’s Ukraine war bounce was destined to fade. At the same time, Le Pen modified her image by softening her rhetoric, leaving the inflammatory statements to her far-right rival, Éric Zemmour. Six months ago, when he started running by standing even farther right, he stole her thunder and made her look like yesterday’s news. Now, she’s calling on his supporters to use their ballot strategically, by voting for her instead of him, because she has a better chance of winning. Coincidentally, she’s up in the polls and he’s down.
The big hornet’s nest for Le Pen to escape was Russia. Everyone remembers how she suspended her campaign in 2017 for a photo opportunity shaking hands with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin and that her campaign was financed by a Russian bank.
To make people forget about that, she focused on the cost of living, the #1 issue in the campaign. With the price of gas at the pump reaching $8 a gallon, she said she would prioritize the French first when considering sanctions that may hurt household budgets. She also modified her position in favor of leaving NATO, saying that France would stay put until the war in Ukraine is over and then she would only opt out of the Strategic Command. www.lemonde.fr/…
Meanwhile, Macron’s missteps multiplied. He refused to debate the other candidates before Round One, saying that it would turn into a pile-on of 11 against one in violation of the equal-time rule that the media must observe during elections.
In his platform, he proposed raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. None of the other candidates followed suit, except the center-right Valérie Pécresse. Le Pen promised to keep it at 62. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon proposed lowering it from 62 to 60 and he surged into third place in the polls.
Macron also proposed requirements that would make it harder for low-income workers to qualify for income support payments. Meanwhile, the media saturated the public with news of a scandal: Macron’s administration used consultants from the private-sector McKinsey and Company to prepare reports on public policy proposals.
Assuming that Macron and Le Pen finish in the top two of the first round and they go on to run against each other in Round Two, how would that play out?
The latest polls show that Macron would prevail but, consistent with Round One polling, his margin is narrowing. In a hypothetical matchup between Macron and Le Pen, he was ahead by 17 points only three weeks ago. In a composite of the latest polls, he would win 53.4% to 46.6%, a 6.8% lead. He beat Le Pen by 32 points in 2017.
Already, the strategizing for Round Two on April 24 has begun. Since Macron, the centrist, is often criticized for leaning too far right and for being the “President of the Rich,” there is concern that voters on the left won’t support him in Round Two to block the far-right like they did in the past. Polls show that some of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Left-of-the-Left supporters would actually vote for Le Pen in Round Two, instead of Macron. Mélenchon has surged into third place and his bloc of voters may matter. He didn’t endorse Macron for Round Two in 2017 and he almost certainly won’t this year, either.
No matter how one adds up the numbers, it’s obvious that Macron is going to need votes from the left. This reality is what led to an unlikely spectacle on Sunday.
Speaking at a campaign rally in La Defense, the financial district of gleaming, ultramodern, steel and glass skyscrapers on the affluent west side of Paris, Macron was reciting leftist slogans. “Our lives are worth more than your profits,” he said. He also warned about election outcomes that were once considered unlikely, such as Brexit, that somehow happened anyway and he spelled out his strategy, “a united front with [center-right] Gaullists, environmentalists and social democrats, which is his only path to victory.” www.lemonde.fr/…
(All of the links in this story go to articles on the campaign that Le Monde printed in English.)