We are now knocking on doors of Democrats and independent voters in five Swing States that will determine the majority in the U.S. Senate in 2023. We start canvassing again in Wisconsin this morning, and, later, after the primary, in Pennsylvania. This is our weekly canvass round-up reporting the numbers from our spring canvassing in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years.
964 volunteers came out to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC last Saturday. They knocked on 68,492 doors, and talked to 6,331 voters.
We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 3,925 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part. Almost everyone who responded answered at least two of the questions (‘do you have a message for your Congress critter’ and ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’). 2,500 (!) voters told us that they have a favorable opinion of Biden. 988 voters didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 437 said they had a negative impression.
Inflation remained the Top Issue from our questionnaire in all five states. Repeating from several weeks, we continue to hear from voters, “I’m glad Democrats are talking about that,” as well as, “The president (or federal government) has to do more about [it].” The number 2 issue was different in most states: Crime in Florida and North Carolina, Personal Security in Arizona, Education in Georgia (again) and Nevada. The number three was different in all five states last weekend. Education was third in Florida (again), Reproductive Rights was third in Arizona and Nevada, Crime was third in Georgia, and Schools was third in North Carolina.
Almost everywhere, there was an uptick in comments about the threat to Reproductive Rights, and not always in the question, What Issue is most urgent? We got abortion related comments on the question, If you could send a message to your Member of Congress as well as the ‘Anything to add’ part. And volunteers repeatedly said that there were abortion related comments that were fraught with fear and concern from the voters who voiced them. Anger, even
Hope Springs from Field PAC is knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to increase awareness of the fact that Democrats care about our voters and are working to protect their rights. We are thinking about how to mitigate Voter Suppression efforts, get around them and make sure we have "super compliance," both informing and helping our voters meet the requirements and get out and vote. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. The approach we adopted was focused on listening, on connecting voters and their story to the candidate and our cause. Repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races in 2022 as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year. As not every state has completed their re-maps, re-districting hasn’t yet made those opportunities/needs apparent. The Senate map started out clear. That may be changing. There are places we need to defend (Georgia, Arizona and Nevada) and there are opportunities. Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are such opportunities.
We ask people who talk to us whether they approved or disapproved of the job their incumbent Senator (up for election this year) was doing. In Florida, 64% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden but only 16% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. Only 11% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 41% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and more than a majority (52%) disapproved the job by DeSantis.
In Arizona, 65% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 75% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly. It is kind of interesting that Kelly is generally polling above Biden. 24% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 26% had an unfavorable view.
In Georgia, 64% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 78% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 19% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 66% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams.
In North Carolina, in our fifth week of canvassing, 59% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 51% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing.
In Nevada, in the second week of canvassing, 61% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 41% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing.
Democratic Party Approval
DKos user decisivemoment posed an interesting question that made me want to look at how the Democratic Party is viewed over time. There is quite a bit of variation in voter approval of the party here, and I think this will be interesting to watch over the next few months (I am not sure that party approval really means a lot without the ability to compare it to how Republicans and Independents feel about the GOP though).
But this begs the question of disapproval of the Democratic Party by the Democrats and Independent voters we talk to. The one thing, though, that I’d note is that we only get about a bare majority of the people who answer questions from the Issues Survey to respond to these particular questions.
Disapproval of the Democratic Party
133 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing and another 364 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we plan to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering.
We collected 201 Constituent Service Request Forms this week. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We continue to walk with Incident Reports but only 24 voters filled out on last Saturday. We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
Poll
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Is There Anything that President Biden or Democrats in Congress Can Do to Help Boost Democratic Voter Turnout in November? (feel free to say how in comments)
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Is There Anything that President Biden or Democrats in Congress Can Do to Help Boost Democratic Voter Turnout in November? (feel free to say how in comments)
Maybe, but time is Running Out
Nope. This election is Baked In
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