On top of that, we lay into DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney for his inexplicable, selfish decision to run in a new district where three-quarters of the residents are already represented by a progressive Black freshman, Mondaire Jones. And much, much more! Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
David Beard:
Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.
David Nir:
And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. You'd be doing us a huge favor if you subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts. Just open the app on your phone or computer and type in The Downballot and you'll find us right there. You can also find The Downballot on every other platform where you listen to podcasts, just type in dailykos.com/thedownballot.
David Beard:
So we've got a ton to cover this week, big primary night on Tuesday. So what are we going to be talking about today?
David Nir:
We have so much to talk about, so many races to recap. We are going to be discussing the primaries for Senate and governor in Pennsylvania, for Senate in North Carolina, a whole bunch of House races in a variety of different states, including of course, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but also Oregon as well. And we are going to be chatting about many of these races with one of our very favorite people, a long time Daily Kos Elections fan and booster, and a fantastic political strategist and radio host, Joe Sudbay. So let's get this show on the road.
David Nir:
We had a huge primary night on Tuesday in a whole number of states with some very exciting races that have a lot of meaning for November, and we will be talking about all of the big ones on today's show, but we are saving several of the juiciest contests to talk about with our guest on today's episode, Joe Sudbay. So we wanted to discuss a few others that we may not have time to get to with Joe in our weekly hits. One of the states leading the docket on Tuesday night was North Carolina. David Beard is a native of North Carolina, so I think he's contractually obligated to talk about the state in every single episode. What have you got for us?
David Beard:
Well, the most disappointing thing is that there aren't any notable runoffs now in North Carolina because of North Carolina's low 30% runoff rate. So we won't get a second chance to talk about North Carolina primaries later in the summer. So we're just left with this week. And there were a ton of competitive races this week. The Senate race being obviously the most prominent where Representative Ted Budd on the Republican side easily defeated former Governor Pat McCrory, about 59% to 25%. So this was not ended up being a close race at all. And so Budd will face former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley in November. Beasley narrowly, narrowly lost reelection in 2020 by about 400 votes in an awful close competitive race there. So she is primed to go forward and take on Budd there. She had very nominal primary competition and won in a huge landslide.
David Beard:
The most notable thing, because it was pretty obvious that Budd was going to take this for a pretty good while now, is the sort of hopefully final, final demise of Pat McCrory, former governor, as I said, who is most notable nationwide for having passed the bathroom bill that was this anti-trans legislation, and losing in 2016, at least in part because of that, too. And McCrory on election night was a real sad sack about everything. He in his farewell speech was sort of like, and I quote, "Now I have to do some real self-evaluation of where I belong." He was upset about the lack of a sense of civility, a sense of character. And he seemed to think that it was so unfair that in 2016, everyone caricatured him as a right-winger because he passed this super anti-trans bill. And then now, because the party is now super Trumpist and he's not really tight with Trump, he's mad that the Republicans are now caricaturing him in his view as somebody who's not sufficiently conservative enough. So largely it's just a bunch of whining. He talked about how he was called a Republican in name only during the primary.
David Beard:
He didn't endorse Budd for the general election. He seemed to waffle about it. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't come around in the next few days or weeks to endorsing Budd, but he was clearly in no mood to do so on Tuesday night. So really a character I will not miss at all on the front stage of North Carolina politics.
David Nir:
One thing I would note, you mentioned Trump, Trump was a huge backer of Budd and Budd's other patron is the far right anti-tax group, the Club for Growth. And they spent many millions on his behalf. And as our Daily Kos Elections colleague Jeff Singer likes to point out, when The Club for Growth and Donald Trump take the same side in a primary, that person stands a really strong chance of winning. It's in these other races where The Club and Trump have been on opposite sides, for instance, in the Ohio Senate race, where things get a whole lot messier, but when they are united like this truly horrible Voltron with only two Voltron parts, then they're fairly unstoppable.
David Beard:
See, I go back to Captain Planet. That's what I watched when I was a kid. It was like with our powers combined, it's some sort of evil version of Captain Planet where they combine their Trump and Club for Growth powers and then they're unstoppable, but Voltron's a good one, too.
David Beard:
There are a few other congressional races in North Carolina we wanted to cover. North Carolina 11, of course is the one I'm sure everyone's waiting to hear about. We're going to talk about that with Joe a little later on, but there were a couple other big races in North Carolina. First off, North Carolina 13, which sort of, because of its large reconfiguration from the previous maps, didn't really have an incumbent and both sides had a competitive primary on the Democratic side. State Senator Wiley Nickel defeated former State Senator Sam Searcy, 52% to 23%, so pretty strong showing there.
David Beard:
On the Republican side, there were a ton of candidates and the one who squeaked it out at 32%, which is just above North Carolina's 30% barrier to avoid a runoff, was former North Carolina State football player Bo Hines. And this is a little bit like Madison Cawthorn and North Carolina 11, sort of a junior version of that. Bo Hines, no real political experience, just came out and decided he wanted to run for Congress, got Trump's endorsement in part thanks to Cawthorn, and then just started district hopping because the maps kept changing. Started off in the much more western district in the state. And then when it came up that this was the district that was open and competitive to Republican-leaning, he just dived in over here instead. And so Hines is going to advance to the general election without any sort of runoff and really without any good reason other than Donald Trump endorsed him and it was a bit of a clown car of a primary, and hopefully that'll benefit Nickel who he faces in the general election. It's a very, very competitive seat, probably the most competitive seat in North Carolina. It takes in the southern Raleigh suburbs to points south. And so that will be a very close race to watch as we move to November.
David Beard:
The last district I wanted to talk about in North Carolina is the First District where G. K. Butterfield is retiring, Democrat, longtime incumbent in that seat. On the Democratic side, State Senator Don Davis defeated former State Senator Erica Smith, 63-31. Davis is a lot more moderate of the two. He had some not great votes on abortion. He had in the state legislature and Smith really ran more as the progressive candidate, but unfortunately a lot of money was spent on Davis' behalf and it ended up being not particularly close in the end.
David Beard:
On the GOP side, accountant and 2020 nominee who lost to Butterfield by I think about eight or nine points, Sandy Smith defeated Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, 31 to 27, again, just very narrowly getting over that 30% mark to avoid a runoff. Now, Sandy Smith has a lot of controversies in her past, which was not helpful, obviously in 2020 and is looking to come back and bite her again in 2022. She's been accused of spousal abuse and other various controversies that we’ll see litigated I'm sure a lot in the lead up to November.
David Nir:
The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the main house GOP super PAC, is very closely tied to GOP leaders in the House, including Kevin McCarthy. They came in at the last minute to try to stop Sandy Smith with a pretty big ad buy, which suggests that they know that she is real trouble for them. But this is now the second cycle in a row where CLF has come in to try to thwart a candidacy of an unacceptable Republican candidate and failed. They tried to block Jim Oberweis in Illinois in 2020, and he won the GOP primary there in a critical race and then lost the general election. So Republicans really did not have a good night in terms of picking their maybe least objectionable candidates, shall we say? And we'll be discussing Pennsylvania with Joe Sudbay in a little bit on that front as well.
David Nir:
Flipping over to the other coast, there is another incumbent who is right now on track to lose. That is Blue Dog Democrat Kurt Schrader in Oregon's redrawn 5th Congressional District. He is trailing right now progressive attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. As of Wednesday evening when we were recording this episode, Schrader was down 61-39 with around 40,000 votes counted. However, a very large number of votes remain untallied in what is more or less his home base of Clackamas County and those ballots are going to be slow to be counted. There was an error with printing the barcode, so that's really slowed things down.
David Nir:
However, the back-of-the-envelope consensus is that Schrader has way too much ground to make up and that McLeod-Skinner is going to be the likely winner. If she is, either way this is a somewhat competitive district. It leans blue. It got a little bit bluer, in fact, in redistricting, thanks to Democrats, but the real news will be replacing a moderate like Schrader with a much more progressive alternative. There's a lot of things we could say about Schrader last year when Democrats were really speaking out in one voice about the importance of impeaching Donald Trump because of his leadership, of his coup and insurrection and attack on the Capitol. Schrader at one point decided to dissent on this and likened the idea of impeaching Donald Trump to a, quote, “lynching.”
David Nir:
And he had to apologize for that, but really it just shows you where his head's at, but more substantively, last year, he voted against a bill that would lower prescription drug prices. Democrats, progressives have often attacked him as being in the pocket of the big pharmaceutical industry. That was just really an unacceptable vote. It really helped derail this bill and lowering prescription drug prices is something that Democrats of all stripes, they're able to talk about. They want to run on this. This really unites moderates and progressives. Joe Biden's on board, and Schrader is a pain in the ass and he has caused problems like this again and again.
David Nir:
If he loses, well, you know what, as long as Democrats hold his seat and there's every reason to think that McLeod-Skinner can, this will be a huge upgrade for the caucus.
David Beard:
Absolutely. And this is another example of how redistricting years are a little different than all other years, because normally, Schrader, a long time incumbent would know the whole district he's represented before. In this case, because Oregon got an additional district, there had to be some changes pretty much everywhere in the state.
David Beard:
And the district stretches sort of from just south of Portland down to Bend. And the Bend area is very fast growing. It's not in Schrader's old district, but it's in an area where McLeod-Skinner had run before. And so she had a base there and that vote went very heavily for her. So you really see how it's a combination of Schrader being out of step with the district, and redistricting bringing in new voters who are willing to take a fresh look and be like, "Hey, this guy isn't who we want to be representing us in Congress." So you can see how that happens in a redistricting year. That wouldn't happen in say a 2018 or 2014 or something like that.
David Beard:
And there's other Oregon districts, Oregon 6 is another district that we're going to talk about with Joe a little later, as well as I mentioned, Pennsylvania statewide. So stay tuned for all of that, but there's one more district I wanted to talk about here in the weekly hits before we moved on and that's Pennsylvania 12.
David Beard:
Pennsylvania 12 is a Pittsburgh based district where longtime democratic incumbent Mike Doyle is retiring. And in that one, state representative Summer Lee very, very narrowly leads Steve Irwin, who's the former chief of the Pennsylvania Securities Commission. It's right now, 41.7 to 41.3. So just razor thin and there's sort of an unknown number of votes outstanding. A small number of Allegheny county precincts were not reported and will probably not be reported until early next week. So we're probably going to have to wait a few days to find out the final result there. But this was a race that drew a ton of investment on both sides. A number of more conservative to moderate groups backed Irwin while a number of progressive groups backed Lee. A ton of money was spent on this race.
David Beard:
And the way that the ballots came in, is Irwin took a very big lead early on election night, as he did very well with the mail-in ballots and the early ballots and leaded very well with the election day voters, particularly in Pittsburgh, and just clawed back and clawed back and clawed back. And at the very end, took this very narrow lead, which it looks like, I think she's probably the slight favorite to hold on, but we really won't know for a few days. But really one of the most hard-fought primaries we've seen on the democratic side so far this year.
David Nir:
And I should add, this is a safely Democratic seat. It would've voted for Joe Biden by about 20 points. And whoever does win the primary on the democratic side is going to be facing off against Mike Doyle. The Republicans somehow found a candidate who happens to have the same name as the retiring longtime democratic incumbent. As far as we know, there is no relation.
David Beard:
And before anyone gets too concerned, I've seen people freak out about things like that. Could some voters somewhere out there be like, "Oh, Mike Doyle," and vote for the Republican. Sure. Is this going to change anything on the margin where it's going to affect the general election? Absolutely not, so. Let's just all take our amusement and not get worried about that.
David Nir:
We have much, much more to come on Tuesday's primaries and other goings on in the world of down ballot politics, which we will talk about with our guest democratic strategist, Joe Sudbay. We're going to take a short break. So stick with us.
David Nir:
Joining us today. I am so excited for this guest. It is political strategist, Joe Sudbay, who is host of the SiriusXM radio show, State of the States. I have also been a guest many times when Joe has hosted for Michelangelo Signorile on SiriusXM Progress. And we love to nerd out about elections.
David Nir:
Joe is very much in the style of myself and my co-host David Beard, in terms of just being a huge nerd about downballot elections. So this is going to be a little bit of a role reversal. Usually I go on Joe's show and he quizzes me about elections that have recently taken place.
David Nir:
But this time I'm going to put Joe on the hot seat. And of course on Tuesday, we just had by far the biggest primary night of the year, including in some absolute must watch states with some enormously important races. So let's start at the very tippy top of the prominent race list. And that's going to be in Pennsylvania for the Senate contest. So Joe, why don't you fill us in on what happened there and what we still don't know?
Joe Sudbay:
Sure. So obviously in both the gubernatorial and Senate races, there are open seats. On the Democratic side, Josh Shapiro, the attorney general, he ran unopposed. He's the democratic nominee. For governor on the Republican side, they have elected, they have nominated one of the craziest most extreme politicians that we have seen in a very, very long time. He's basically a Christian ideologist nationalist. I mean, Doug Mastriano was at the January 6th event. He is really Trumpier than Trump, which, that's kind of getting out there. But this guy, I'll tell you one of the ways I knew Republicans were freaking out. And I know in the traditional media, they would never say Republicans in disarray, because they can only use that language for Democrats.
David Nir:
That's not allowed.
Joe Sudbay:
That's not allowed. But if you were ever going to talk about Republicans in disarray, the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race is a shining example.
Joe Sudbay:
Things get so bad, two things happen. A lot of Republican donors said if Mastriano wins, they're going to support Shapiro. The other thing that happened is there was this frenzied effort to try and maybe back Lou Barletta who used to be a member of Congress, before that he was the mayor of Hazleton. One of the most extreme anti-immigrant politicians around, well, I mean, just normal now for the Republican Party, but he used to be extreme in the GOP. He lost the Senate race by about 13 or 14 points in 2018. That's how desperate they were that they decided maybe Lou Barletta would be their savior. So they've got Mastriano now. He gave on Tuesday evening, a really, really bat shit crazy acceptance speech. Look for some clips. You don't want to watch the whole thing, but look up for some clips and you'll just get a good sense of it.
Joe Sudbay:
On the Senate race, we still don't know who the GOP nominee is. And there's just such something so delicious about it because Trump’s guy, Dr Oz was up by a smidge. The other Republican—like Oz, he wasn't from Pennsylvania but ran—Dave McCormick, was telling people on election night, "Don't worry. We're going to get the mail-in ballots."
Joe Sudbay:
Now I think a lot of your listeners will remember that in 2020, a certain presidential candidate, at the time president, made a big deal about the fact that mail-in ballots are coming in and how corrupt that whole thing was. So the question is, does McCormick overtake Oz with mail-in ballots and what's the fallout here?
Joe Sudbay:
So the other thing that happened is Kathy Barnette, everyone thought that, which, I mean she's Mastriano level extreme. She kind of faltered. She only got 25% of the vote, around 25% of vote. There was some belief that she might have sucked away some votes from Oz, who as we all know, Trump endorsed. So it remains to be seen.
Joe Sudbay:
John Fetterman won on the Democratic side, commanding win, 60% of the vote. I thought that was fascinating because I mean, if you asked the D.C. professional Democrats who is their ideal kind of candidate, they would present to you someone like Conor Lamb, congressman from Western Pennsylvania. And so they were all geared up that Conor Lamb was going to soar in because he was on paper, the right candidate.
Joe Sudbay:
The voters of Pennsylvania did not think so at all. And John Fetterman got around 60% of the vote. So really shapes up to be a very important year. I think one thing to remember about the gubernatorial race is that the governor has the power to appoint Secretary of State. That person will be in charge of elections and Mastriano wants to rig the election. So not only is it an important election for Pennsylvania, it's an important election for 2024's presidential race.
David Nir:
That's a really good point about appointing the secretary of state. Mastriano, the first time I ever heard about him was right after the 2020 election. He went to a meeting with Trump at the White House, part of the months long gambit to try to overturn the election results. But the most remarkable thing that happened was that Mastriano found out that he was COVID positive while he was meeting with Trump. How do you let that happen? It was completely nuts.
David Nir:
And also it was super weird. His own son and his son's friend were also at the meeting with Trump. It was just very, very bizarre kind of small-time stuff. But the dude is also a QAnon adherent. He really checks all the boxes. He's really maybe like a Marjorie Taylor Greene type, but I say this almost every week on this show, we have to be careful about what we wish for.
David Nir:
Definitely Shapiro's job has gotten easier by the fact that the GOP nominated an absolute lunatic like this. But at the same time, the risks just went up, because this is going to be a tough year. And Pennsylvania is a swing state and Mastriano can win. There's no question about it. It's not like he's going to lose 70-30. No matter how well Shapiro does, it's not going to be some enormous, enormous blowout. So there is a real chance of his victory and that's why we have to fight as hard as hell to make sure that doesn't happen.
Joe Sudbay:
Right. Absolutely right. And I think anything can happen. I mean, look, we still all bear the scars from 1994, 2010, 2014 in what were bad Democratic years. Now we really, we believe that if you follow trends, that's what will happen. There are some amazing factors, important factors that could kind of change that dynamic. I mean, I think the fact that we had a coup and the fact that we know about the Roe decision, hopefully those will motivate Democratic voters. Because seriously, our democracy, which was founded in Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia, could be undermined in Pennsylvania if Mastriano wins.
David Beard:
And one thing I'll note, although I know we have a ton we want to get to, is it might help that this is a governor's race. We've seen, even throughout the Trump era, if you will, that there still retains some more flexibility among voters who may be very strictly adherent to their partisanship when it comes to congressional races, Senate races, presidency, when they're thinking in a very D.C.-oriented way. That in governor's races, we have seen more flexibility. Laura Kelly won in Kansas in 2018, which was obviously a good year for Democrats, but it was still Kansas. So that's helped particularly, obviously when Republicans nominate really bad candidates like Mastriano is, that could help even if it is a bad year like we worry that it might be, that Shapiro could still overcome that because he is a much better candidate and middle of the road, Pennsylvania voters are going to be willing to vote for him, even if they really want to send Republicans to D.C. for whatever reason.
Joe Sudbay:
That's really important. I think that's right. That's really right.
David Beard:
So another race we saved to talk with Joe about is North Carolina's 11th district Republican primary.
David Nir:
Wait, did something happen there?
David Beard:
I know, I know it's gotten a strange amount of coverage for this minor congressional primary. You heard about it apparently all across the world, people know about Madison Cawthorn now because of the various and sundry controversies he's gotten himself into. But he lost his primary and an attempt to run for his first reelection to state Senator Chuck Edwards, who very narrowly defeated him.
David Beard:
So tell us your thoughts about Madison and all of the glorious things we've gotten to learn about him in the past few months.
Joe Sudbay:
Well, I think one of the things we learned is you can...
David Beard:
... in the past few months?
Joe Sudbay:
Well, I think one of the things we learned is you can be as extreme as possible in the Republican Party. You can support the replacement theory, you can talk about invasions, you can do anything, but do not say that Republicans in D.C. do coke or go to orgies, because the entire hierarchy of the Republican Party will turn on you.
Joe Sudbay:
We really did see that happen to Cawthorn and he still came pretty close. I mean, in the low 30s, but still I found the way ... It was interesting because every time there was a new revelation, and there were numerous revelations over the past few weeks about him. He would tweet, "The Libs are trying to destroy me." No, dude. It was the Republicans that were trying to destroy you and the Republicans that did.
Joe Sudbay:
Now, what I would really like to see is for Madison Cawthorn to maybe start an OnlyFans page, or something like that, where he can really dig into-
David Nir:
Oh, Joe.
Joe Sudbay:
... he really can dig into the orgy factor in the GOP. I mean, there's a lot of videos that show he likes to show off so it might be a job for him. I don't know.
David Nir:
Wow. I did not realize we were going to head in this direction.
Joe Sudbay:
I didn't really ... I'm sorry. It just happened so quickly. I just thought of it.
David Beard:
I did see a lot of comments that he doesn't have a lot of work experience because he became a congressman so young. It's actually interesting. Also the fact that, again, he's so young, he's got 40 or 50 years to make a comeback. So who knows what happens when we've got a 50-year-old Madison Cawthorn running for something 25 years down the road?
Joe Sudbay:
Yeah. It's a long sordid future for him and we will all suffer for it. I do think what was in North Carolina is Cheri Beasley. I'm really high on her, I know North Carolina's a tough state. She's now the Senate Democratic nominee who will be running against Ted Budd. We know it's going to be a tough year and North Carolina's always a tough state, but I really have a lot of respect for Cheri Beasley. She lost the Supreme Court by 400 votes in 2020, so I know North Carolina has broken our hearts many times. But they have elected Democrats in the past and I do really believe there's a lot of on-the-ground organizing that's happening. I got to talk to Ricky Hurtado who's a state Rep. last year, just about the work that they were doing, realizing that they couldn't count on outside money to save them, they needed to save themselves. So I'm kind of excited about that.
David Beard:
And as listeners know and you may know, I'm from North Carolina, I bring up North Carolina all the time. So I'm very glad to hear that you've got some optimism for that race.
Joe Sudbay:
Yeah, I have. Well, it might be misplaced optimism, but she's a terrific candidate and Ted Budd is a Trump nominee and he's kind of extreme. We'll see what happens. I mean, it's going to be a rough year anyways, as we've discussed, but I think if we can get out, if young people will vote and people of color will show up, who knows what could happen?
David Nir:
A friend of mine said to me last night that they wish that Madison Cawthorn had lost for being a Nazi instead of just for embarrassing Republicans, but we'll take what we can get, I think.
Joe Sudbay:
Right. And you can't lose for being a Nazi. Look what they nominated for their Governor in Pennsylvania, Mastriano. He went on, wanted to steal the election, was determined to steal the election. In many ways, you get rewarded for that kind of behavior in the GOP.
David Nir:
So we're going to switch gears and flip over to the far side of the country. This is a race that we have talked about at length. Oregon, thanks to population growth, won a new house seat in reapportionment. Democrats there created the blue-leaning 6th congressional district, a brand new open seat and Democrats unexpectedly had a completely bonkers, out of control and, I will say, obscene primary that really should never have happened. But the good news is the good guys won. So what went down?
Joe Sudbay:
Oh my God. The amount of money that was spent in this race by, I call him a crypto brother, who had a super PAC to elect a, I'm just going to call him sort of a no-name Democrat. And also the other thing that really struck me on this one, the crypto bro super PAC is spending money in a bunch of places. And like you said, fortunately, Andrea Salinas won. She will be the first Latina to represent Oregon.
Joe Sudbay:
But the other thing that happened was the House Majority PAC decided to invest in this race against her, well, for the other Democrat, which I know I keep not mentioning his name, but I am just so amazed that this was the race they chose to get into. And it really pissed off the House congressional caucus, the Democratic Congressional caucus, because they were spending money to defeat a woman who could be, she's a great Democrat. She's been a state rep, she worked for Harry Reid, and it's like, where did that strategy come from? I just don't get it. I don't get that amount of spending.
Joe Sudbay:
I mean, the crypto bro spending, we don't have any control over that, but what was it that prompted? I still don't understand the House Majority PAC to invest in this race. And I know you've had people from House Majority on the show, but this was kind of mind boggling to watch the money, but I'm glad Salinas won. That was the outcome we wanted but it was just bizarre to watch.
David Nir:
It was totally bizarre. And I want to be clear that our guests from HMP came on before we learned about their decision to put $1 million in this race. There is no clear answer. There has been a lot of speculation that HMP made that investment because Sam Bankman-Fried who is the crypto billionaire, he actually runs an "exchange" for cryptocurrency. That Sam Bankman-Fried had possibly offered to give a donation to HMP in exchange for them getting involved on behalf of his favorite candidate. We won't know until Friday at the soonest, which is when the next financial reports are due for super PACs like that but it will cast a cloud over this race, no matter what.
David Nir:
As you were alluding Salinas, she'll be, if she wins in November, the first Latina to represent the state in Congress, and she had heavy support from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus which has, in the past, also been a huge supporter of House Majority PAC.
David Nir:
They've given the group something like $6 million over the years. So to divide groups that are normally on the same side, especially since, as we have said in the past that HMP has never played in a democratic primary like this before, it truly made no sense.
David Nir:
The total spending for Carrick Flynn, that's the candidate who was backed by all this crypto money, he might get around 15,000 votes in the end, let's say. The totals aren't known yet and won't be for a little while. They probably spend about $15 million on him which means that he spent a thousand dollars a vote. That's completely ludicrous. But I thought that was a great outcome because hopefully these schmucks learn a lesson or two and don't try to pull this kind BS, especially since right now Salinas is doubling up Flynn, she's leading 38-19. This is as of Wednesday afternoon when we're recording this show. So I hope we don't see this kind of thing happen again. I'm not optimistic but this is a pretty humiliating outcome for the $15 million gang.
Joe Sudbay:
Yeah, absolutely right. The other race I've been following pretty closely in Oregon is the 5th District. And as of now, Jamie McLeod-Skinner has a pretty good lead over incumbent Kurt Schrader who was one of the unbreakable nine, one of the people who were willing to undermine Joe Biden's presidency in the house. I think he voted against the rescue plan. He was always threatening to, he was one of the people that helped undermine Build Back Better, and very wealthy, and looks like he's going to lose. What I say, good riddance. Good riddance. He was very, very close to the pharma industry. And guess what, people don't appreciate it. When you get to point out that your own member of Congress is undermining your ability to get cheaper drugs in a democratic primary, it doesn't really help you, and Jamie McCleod-Skinner, hopefully she'll pull it out. She's terrific. She will be part of the LGBTQ Equality Caucus so I especially appreciate that.
David Beard:
Yeah. I think the thing that connects both of these races is the proof that money is not the be-all and end-all, particularly in primary races. And that's not to say that money isn't really important. All else, things being equal, usually the person with more money is going to win, but often, everything isn't equal. And what we saw here, particularly in Oregon 5, was more of an ideological, Schrader was outside the median, sort of the norm of the Democratic Party, and that area also had some new voters because of redistricting. Those things combined were more important than the fact that you had more money. In Oregon 6, Salinas was at a huge, huge money disadvantage, but she had backing from a lot of what we call establishment like the Hispanic caucus, labor groups, things like that, of people who supported her because they had relationships with her. And that's the type of establishment we're talking about versus a billionaire.
David Beard:
Those kinds of support being known in the community, being a state rep is going to oftentimes be more important than spending $11 million on advertising when you don't have anything to back it up. If there was some compelling reason that Carrick Flynn needed to be in Congress that people cared about, because there was all this talk about effective altruism and pandemic preparedness and those things are fine, but they're not what everyday voters care about. So, going in and Salinas talking about, "Here's what I've done, here's what I care about," and understanding that's what voters are going to care about versus just $11 million. That's not going to get you anywhere. And we saw that, "Prove it," in a good way.
Joe Sudbay:
It really was in a good way, too. I think the same thing is true about Salinas and Jamie McLeod-Skinner that they both knew their communities pretty well and had been active in their communities. And look, when you are running for Congress in a primary, that really matters. There was an authenticity to both of them that I think really, really mattered too. I always say that what happens too often is that you meet these great candidates and then they go through this high pressure car wash in the D.C. among some of the D.C. consultants and they come out on the other side speaking in talking points in pabulum. Voters get that. So in a way, if you're not the chosen one of the big money, you can keep your authenticity because you don't have to go through that car wash. You can stay who you are and I think voters have really good bullshit detectors for the most part.
David Nir:
I think we have some pretty good bullshit detectors on this show, too, because we're going to talk about some serious bullshit that went down, not in the primaries but in New York where the court-appointed expert who is drawing a new congressional map released a new map earlier this week. It made radical changes to the existing map. It was very different from the map that was struck down. And right after the map dropped, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the DCCC...
David Nir:
This is the group that is tasked with protecting and expanding the Democrats’ majority in the house. Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney. He announced that instead of running in the district where three-quarters of his constituents currently live, he would run one district to the south, where only a quarter of his constituents live and where three quarters of the constituents are represented by a progressive black freshman, Mondaire Jones. What the hell is Sean Patrick Maloney thinking?
Joe Sudbay:
I think Sean Patrick Maloney thinks about Sean Patrick Maloney first and foremost and only. And that sounds kind of harsh, but that's just who he has been. As you mentioned, he chairs the DCCC, which should be solely focused on expanding the Democrats’ margin this year. And instead, he put himself first. I saw a tweet today from Jake Sherman, who does Punchbowl News, which I refer to as one of the D.C., Capitol Hill gossip publications. But he said, "Sean Maloney allies are spreading the message that Jones would be ideologically better suited for another district."
Joe Sudbay:
Richie Torres, another member of Congress from New York, retweeted that and said, "The thinly veiled racism here is profoundly disappointing. A black man is ideologically ill-suited to represent a Westchester County district that he represents presently and won decisively in 2020? Outrageous." Now, the other amazing thing about this is Sean Patrick Maloney, Richie Torres, and Mondaire Jones are all gay.
Joe Sudbay:
It just, it's one of these things that you're like, "Dude, help out your fellow members." But I'm appalled by Sean. I will tell you, in 2015, there was a vote pushed by Republicans, that was when they controlled the House, when Trump's campaign was really getting rolling and they were attacking Syrian refugees. And the House took a vote. And the number of Democrats sided with the Republicans on this.
Joe Sudbay:
And if you know the story of refugees, you know there are so many LGBTQ refugees that come to this country to save their lives. And three members of the House Equality Caucus that's LGBT members, Jared Polis, Kyrsten Sinema, of course, and Sean Patrick Maloney voted with the Republicans. And I thought that was one of the most appalling votes I had seen to that point, but that vote told me everything I needed to about Sean Patrick Maloney. And I've never seen anything to change my view.
David Nir:
There's a couple of other impacts here of this really selfish move by Maloney. First off, and this one is in a way the most important to me, is that by abandoning New York's 18th congressional district, instead wanting to run in the 17th, he's making it more likely that we'll lose the 18th. And that's completely unforgivable.
David Nir:
But just as unforgivable is he wants Mondaire Jones to run in the 16th district. Well, that district is also represented by a first-term, progressive black man, Jamaal Bowman. Maloney is trying to both risk a vulnerable seat, the 18th, and reduce representation among black progressive men, by pushing them into a primary against one another. It's really a double whammy of BS.
David Nir:
Now, I want caution, Mondaire Jones hasn't said what he's going to do yet. The map could still change. We're not expecting a final version from the court until Friday, but this is completely unacceptable all the way around. And what's really amazing, you quoted that tweet from Richie Torres. Mondaire Jones, also publicly attacked Sean Maloney. And for these freshman members to go on the record after a top member of democratic leadership, that's really, really remarkable. And we've even seen some reporting that there is talk of almost a rebellion to try to depose Maloney as chair of the D-Trip.
Joe Sudbay:
Well, and all of the criticism is warranted and the scenario is so important. I want to point out one other thing that's really important. The reason we're in this situation is because of the New York, it's the Court of Appeals. It's the Supreme Court, but it's really the Court of Appeals the way that New York legal system is set up.
Joe Sudbay:
It was really a conservative appointee. Someone who progressives did not want appointed, but got pushed through to, that was the deciding vote. And I think it just reminds us how important state Supreme court justices are. And when you have power, when you control a legislative body, don't cave in, don't compromise.
Joe Sudbay:
And it's just, we live with the ramifications of this all the time. And in some states, Supreme Court Justices are elected. In some places that's worked to our advantage, like Pennsylvania with some of the redistricting. But we really need to understand just the interrelationship between justice's judges and how districts are decided. And that this played out like this, I feel like it's into Cuomo's revenge.
David Nir:
That's exactly right. Because the high court is filled with Cuomo appointees. Some of whom are very conservative, especially in criminal justice in particular, despite having been appointed by a nominal Democrat, despite being approved by a Democratic legislature. This really has to change. And fortunately, there's a mandatory retirement age in the New York judicial system. Hopefully, Kathy Hochul will win reelection and appoint some much better, more progressive and more fair-minded judges to our top court. Because, once again, this is total BS.
David Beard:
And the thing that really gets me around Maloney to go back to him for a second is that Jones and Torres should not have been put in the position where they had to come out and publicly go against the chairman of the DCCC. If Sean Patrick Maloney wants to look out first and foremost for Sean Patrick Maloney, that's fine. There are plenty of congressmen and Congresswoman who are like that, who are like, "I'm here to be elected and to stay elected. And that's what I care about." And if that's what he wants to do, that's fine.
David Beard:
If you want to be in the leadership of a House Democratic caucus, which you are as the DCCC chair, that means taking responsibility for more than just yourself. Than being like, "I'm not here just because I want to be a Congressman. I want to be here because I want to see Democrats win a majority. I want to see Democrats enact change."
David Beard:
And the way to do that, as Sean Patrick Maloney, is to take responsibility, to take on this 18th district that is actually marginally better than his current district. And win that race like he wanted in 2020. And let Jones run in the seat that makes the most sense for him, where most of his constituents already are, and so on and so forth.
David Beard:
The just complete abdication of leadership, the complete, "I'm going to look out for me and these freshman members." Just trying to claim the fact that because Jones doesn't technically live in the new district, he's slightly into the 16th district means that like, "Oh, I was just running in the obvious district for me. I don't know what's going on with you." You're the D-Trip chair? What do you mean you don't know the broader situation? It's just like, so unbelievably callous that it's unbelievable.
Joe Sudbay:
Yeah, it really is. And the other thing that's been really annoying about it too, is I mentioned the leak to Jake Sherman at Punchbowl but they've been leaking a lot. I think David Nir tweeted about this, that you're seeing the same anonymous quotes, appearing in different articles. They are using their position as chair of the DCCC to malign other members of the caucus, though.
Joe Sudbay:
If you're someone who's not Mondaire Jones and you're running for reelection in a tough reelection, how comfortable do you feel that Sean Patrick Maloney has your back? I wouldn't feel too good about it. If you're one of the candidates running around the country, trying to challenge a Republican incumbent or for an open seat, how comfortable does that make you feel?
Joe Sudbay:
And the other thing that really pisses me off the most is that, in doing this, Sean Patrick Maloney plays into this, plays into what the D.C. media loves more. Gossip about Democrats and disarray. And it didn't have to happen. And he instigated a lot of it, he and his team. And I just think it's beyond appalling.
David Nir:
Well, you'll get no argument from us here. We have been talking with one of our all-time favorites, Democratic strategist, Joe Sudbay, who is the host of the show State Of The States on SiriusXM Progress. You can find that on channel 127. Joe, please let our listeners know how and where else they can find you.
Joe Sudbay:
Mostly on Twitter, @JoeSudbay. That's where I do most of my ranting when I'm not on the radio or doing podcast. I really appreciate, thank you both so much for this invitation. I'm @JoeSudbay on Twitter. And then, like you said, I do State Of The States. And then I frequently guest host on SiriusXM Progress, which is a lot of fun because they pay me to talk for three hours. And as you can tell, I can talk.
David Nir:
Well. So can we. Thanks again, Joe,
David Beard:
That's all from us this week. Thanks to Joe Sudbay for joining us. The Downballot comes out every Thursday, everywhere you listen to podcasts. You can reach us by email at downballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please like and subscribe to The Downballot and leave us a five-star rating and review. Thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya and editor, Tim Einenkel. We'll be back next week with a new episode.
