On this week’s episode of The Brief, cohosts Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld discussed the prevailing media narrative of doom and gloom for Democrats come November—are these predictions all that they’re cracked up to be?
Our hosts think things might actually end up looking quite different and that Democrats need to continue to bring the fight to the GOP. As Moulitsas emphasized, “It is, unfortunately, the reality of our modern times that every election is the most important election of our lifetime. And yes, 2020 was the most important election, but now, this is the most important election, because our very democracy and our rights are on the line. And the difference between victory and picking up a few seats in the Senate and defeat and losing either chamber of Congress is monumental.”
Moulitsas believes that this will be a 2002-style year. As he summarized in his latest post, midterms are usually referendums on the incumbent president and his party. But with Donald Trump’s presence still looming over these elections, Moulitsas believes that Democrats benefit from making it a 2020-redux: “Abortion will play a particularly outsized role, not just as motivation in its own right, but as proof that holding the White House doesn’t mean we and the Democrats are actually in power. The whole system is legitimately rigged against us. If being out of power gooses turnout, we have a legitimate claim to that crown. And the quality of candidates actually matters, as Republicans do everything in their power to nominate Marjorie Taylor Greene-type wackos for key races in battleground states and districts.”
All of the main battleground races this year—particularly for the U.S. Senate—are being fought in 2020 and 2024 battleground states. Conventional wisdom might state that the party in the White House loses seats in Congress: looking at the average over the last 60, 70 years, the in party of the incumbent president in his first term in office loses over 30 seats in the House. Yet, this doesn’t tell the whole story.
Moulitsas explained that while it makes sense to look at the political climate and Joe Biden’s approval rating and think, “Yeah, okay, Democrats are going to get their butts whooped this November,” this narrative is missing some nuance. There have been anomalies, like in 2002, when George Bush and the Republican Party won seats in Congress, bucking that trend. “There are situations where the climate is so anomalous to what is normality that politics are completely scrambled … I absolutely believe this is one of those years.”
Eleveld clarified that she believes this battle will still be a slog. It will be “no home run hit for Democrats,” as she put it. Citing Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano’s win in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial primary last week, she noted that Republicans are in some cases electing more and more radical candidates to represent them in the general elections. Mastriano, in particular, espouses a number of radical views that could hurt him in the general election. A Christian nationalist who wants a total abortion ban with no exceptions, Mastriano continues to sell the Big Lie and was also at the Capitol himself on Jan. 6, 2021.
Moulitsas and Eleveld believe that if Democrats can increase their turnout, it could close the gap with Republicans—especially MAGA Republicans, who have been incentivized to turn out, especially in elections where Trump has made an endorsement. “I don’t think there’s going to be one narrative—I think there’s going to be a mix of wins and losses, fueled by two sides that are completely opposed to the vision the [other] has for the country and want to get to the polls. I just don’t think that this is going to look anything like a normal midterm in general,” Eleveld added.
Pivoting to the topic of abortion, Moulitsas recalled the leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision that would overturn Roe v. Wade and noted how it is a clear indicator of just how much the electoral system has been stacked against Democrats:
[The issue of] abortion is showing that, because of the system we live in, we overwhelmingly won the Senate popular vote and the House popular vote, but because of gerrymandering and a Senate that is undemocratic—where California gets two senators and all [of] North Dakota and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming, which have the population of the San Francisco metro area essentially—they have, what, eight or 10 senators? It’s not a democratic institution. Layer on top of that the filibuster, and it’s clear that Democrats, as in sort of the liberal base, are not in the majority. Then you look at the Supreme Court, where you had seats stolen.
Eleveld agreed, pointing out that if this decision moves forward, it will open the floodgates to other horrific attacks on our rights, as it is not just abortion that’s at risk: “There’s something about overturning this landmark decision that’s been considered by most people to be settled law for 50 years that really gives people an understanding of what this court is capable of, and of the fact that anything we considered precedent is now on the chopping block.”
“The Supreme Court could come after contraception, marriage equality, the ability to be in an interracial marriage, and more,” Moulitsas added.
As far as the GOP playbook goes, in Georgia, things have gotten complicated after Republicans there nominated Herschel Walker to be their candidate to face off against Rev. Raphael Warnock. According to Eleveld, the GOP’s trick is “to jingle, jingle, jingle their keys about social issues”:
They were going to fearmonger. They were going to distract from the fact that they haven’t fixed those potholes. They’re growing the deficit. They don’t have any solutions for healthcare, and it keeps getting more expensive. Those types of things. It’s just a distraction to get people into these social issues.
A recent GOP attack ad on Warnock highlighted the fact that he votes with Joe Biden 95% of the time, which got Eleveld thinking: “Joe Biden’s [approval numbers] are low. But can he be painted as a villain?”
Moulitsas pointed out that Republicans’ attempted attacks on Biden “don’t generate feelings of revulsion and loathing and of ‘I will walk across broken glass to get in [your] way.’”
The pair also discussed the generic ballot, which tracks whether people would generally want Republicans or Democrats in U.S. House and Senate majorities. Eleveld pointed out that it has favored Republicans thus far, but that it has seen a positive shift for Democrats in the last few weeks.
“Because of gerrymandering, a tied national popular vote would mean that we would lose the House by 20 seats,” Moulitsas added. “We still need to win the generic popular vote by about 6.6% … we’re all going to have to fight like our rights are on the line, because they are.”
Watch this week’s episode here:
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