Last Saturday was our second week of canvassing this summer, and our second summer weather-driven changeup (Arizona had a Heat Warning which led us to revert to canvassing with volunteers assigned to drivers to make sure they were not stressed by the weather). The week prior, of course, we had to cancel Florida canvassing because of rain and the initial thought of possible hurricane. So it goes.
We have now added Ohio to our existing canvasses in Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all critical states that will determine the Senate majority for the next two years.
1,681 volunteers came out to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC last Saturday. This is our new high for volunteers — something I hope we exceed again and again this summer. After all, we are trying to knock 2 million doors and we have a ways to go! These volunteers knocked on 114,796 doors, and had conversations with 9,040 voters. The number of voters we talked to was another new high, but the number of doors we knocked was not! Go figure.
We walk with an Issues Canvass, where we ask voters what they think and whether they had a message for their elected officials. 5,597 voters answered questions from the survey, in whole or in part. Almost everyone who responded answered at least two of the questions (‘do you have a message for your Congress critter’ and ‘what is their opinion of the job Biden is doing’). 3,121 voters told us that they have a favorable opinion of the job Biden was doing as president. 1,802 voters didn’t express an opinion of the president at this time. 674 said they had a negative impression of the job the president was doing.
The rising price of gas was the Top Issue from our questionnaire in Arizona, Georgia and Ohio this week. The Economy, which broadly means concerns over recession or tourism, was the most frequent concern in Florida and Wisconsin. Inflation was the number 1 issue North Carolina and Nevada. Gun Violence was the most frequent response in Pennsylvania. We continue to hear a lot of comments about price increases and how it is effecting voters’ wallets. And people continue to tell us that Democrats should talk about it more, and, more specifically, that we should be more forward looking and outline steps to address it.
Gas Prices was the number 2 issue was different in Florida and Pennsylvania. Gun Violence was the second most frequent issue mentioned in Arizona and Georgia. Reproductive Rights was second in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In Ohio it was Crime; and the Economy was second in Nevada.
Health Care Issues, including rising costs, was the third most frequent response in Georgia, Pennsylvania. Gun Violence was third in Florida and Wisconsin. The Economy was third in Arizona; Reproductive Rights was third in Nevada; Crime was the number 3 concern in North Carolina this week; and Schools was third in Ohio.
Hope Springs from Field PAC is knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to increase awareness of the fact that Democrats care about our voters and are working to protect their rights. We are thinking about how to mitigate Voter Suppression efforts, get around them and make sure we have "super compliance," both informing and helping our voters meet the requirements and get out and vote. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. The approach we adopted was focused on listening, on connecting voters and their story to the candidate and our cause. Repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races in 2022 as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year. There are places we need to defend (Georgia, Arizona and Nevada) and there are opportunities. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are such opportunities.
We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year) and their governor (up for election this year) is doing. After the primaries, we ask about the Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial nominees.
In Florida, 54% of the voters we talked to who responded had a favorable impression of President Biden but only 22% had a favorable impression of Senator Rubio. 7% had a favorable impression of Governor DeSantis last week. Remember that we are only knocking on doors of households with Democratic and Independent voters in Central Florida; we don’t include households that only have Republicans in them. 26% of Florida voters we talked to disapproved of the job Rubio has done in the Senate and almost a majority (44%) disapproved the job by DeSantis.
In Arizona, 51% of the voters we talked to responded they had a favorable impression of President Biden and 70% had a favorable impression of Senator Kelly. It is kind of interesting that Kelly is now generally polling this much above Biden. 14% of them had a favorable impression of their retiring Governor Doug Ducey while 36% had an unfavorable view.
In Georgia, 58% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 78% approved of the job Senator Warnock was doing. Only 17% approved of the job Governor Kemp was doing. 68% of the voters we talked to last week had a favorable impression of Stacey Abrams. The trend lines in SW Georgia are kind of interesting. Again, we are talking to households identified in the VAN model as Democratic and Independent voters (Georgia doesn’t have party registration). We do our best to eliminate Republican households although we do get mixed addresses, where someone is a Democrat (usually a female or younger voter) and someone is a Republican (usually male).
In North Carolina, 59% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 59% of the voters we talked to approved of the job Governor Cooper was doing. Since the Democratic nominee for Senate is now official, we also asked about Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court. 73% of the people we talked to had a favorable impression of Justice Beasley.
In Nevada, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 59% had a favorable impression of the job Senator Cortez Masto was doing. 59% of voters approved of the job Governor Sisolak was doing. Remember that Nevada just had their primary, so both Sisolak and Masto benefited from increased advertising and name recognition. No little thing.
In Ohio, in our first week of canvassing, 54% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 65% approved of the job Tim Ryan was doing. I have to say that I am surprised that Ryan’s name recognition was high enough to warrant that, but it is our first week. 44% approved of the job that Governor DeWine was doing.
In Pennsylvania, in our third week of canvassing, 55% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 52% had a favorable opinion of John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. 58% had a favorable view of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania governor. Remember, we are knocking on Democratic and independent doors, and we endeavor to exclude (exclusively) Republican households.
In Wisconsin, in our fourth week of canvassing, 57% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden was doing. 6% approved of the job Senator Johnson was doing. 49% approved of the job that Governor Evers was doing.
The trend lines are now starting to diverge again for President Biden’s approval ratings in the different states. 8 percentage points now separate Biden’s approval ratings in Arizona (week’s low) and North Carolina (week’s high). Remember that we don’t knock on doors of Republican households even though there are definitely doors of mixed party households we canvass. But we are getting interesting feedback from voters who seem inclined to support the president. “He’s got to deliver,” said one voter in Wisconsin — a sentiment shared by others in not so different language.
Beating Trump isn’t enough any more. Having said that, we did have mentions of the former occupant of the Oval Office this week (something we didn’t have in prior weeks).
143 people filled out new voter registration forms for their states during last weekend’s canvassing (we collected no new voter registrations in Georgia, where there was a primary) and another 780 voters updated their address, as required by HAVA. We differentiate between the two because brand new voters are often ignored by campaigns and we hope to compensate for that somewhat by having volunteers send them post cards before the election and they are also getting robocalls thanking them for registering.
We collected 590 Constituent Service Request Forms this week. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the CSR and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We continue to walk with Incident Reports and 69 voters (mostly in Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, which have just had a primary election) filled them out on last Saturday. We pass along Incident Reports to the Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights and NALEO (those that correspond to Hispanic precincts), and send copies to state Democratic Party committees. But our purpose is to combine this information with the two independent databases of voting incidents to look for patterns before the election and use that information for warning district, state and U.S. attorneys’ offices that we could see those patterns resurface on election day. We will also use it to target Election Day Protection activity.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions in some states, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!
Which of the Following Do You Think Will Be Most Decisive in November's Results?
Which of the Following Do You Think Will Be Most Decisive in November's Results?
House Select Committee Report
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