It is sure true that the “90 day” February contracts of RU fighters contracts expired at midnight two days ago. The March 90 day contracts expire end of June and on and on. Many others signed 3 year contracts — but many are likely not going to stick around either, I think. To me — it was more like “if they can go home so can I “ (short contract or long contract kind of thing) and the more they get thinned out the more they are not gonna do the deal— but they did sign longer contracts. If this does not end up being a declared war (maybe not even then) they will bolt too. Pretty good guess that if Putin thought he could politically have declared war — he would have. Guess he can’t. Maybe how that could impact future goals to remain political leader at all?? So much of the RU forces are contract — in the hundreds of thousands - about half.
So the following is about those longer contracts —
“Along with eight others, Dmitri told his commanders that he refused to rejoin the invasion. “They were furious. But they eventually calmed down because there wasn’t much they could do,” he said….
Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has been advising soldiers who choose that option.
Benyash said “hundreds and hundreds” of soldiers had been in touch with his team for advice on how they could avoid being sent to fight. Among them were 12 national guardsmen from Russia’s southern city of Krasnodar who were fired after refusing to go to Ukraine.:
(You know that is just one lawyer, right?)
“Commanders try to threaten their soldiers with prison time if they dissent, but we tell the soldiers that they can simply say no,” Benyash said, adding that he was not aware of any criminal cases against soldiers who refused to fight. “There are no legal grounds to start a criminal case if a soldier refuses to fight….
Many soldiers, therefore, have chosen to be fired or transferred rather than going into “the meat grinder”, he said.” ( those contracts specify they are only required to go at it inside the RU border if that is not clear)
www.theguardian.com/…
This is what is going to happen man — Clear as a bell to me —
"Almost all of our battery refused," the man said in the recording. He added that Solodchuk (Gen. Valeriy Solodchuk) started waving his gun and shooting, and that he said, "I'll whack you if you don't fucking go there!"
"Then, a kid says to him, 'Go ahead, whack!' Fuck, he pulled out a grenade, pulled a pin and says: 'Come on, shoot me! We'll blow up together.' That's it. The special forces guys also started pointing their guns at us. So, we pointed our guns at them."
"In short, we almost shot each other, for fuck's sake. He got on his bobik and left," the man said in the recording, referring to a type of Russian jeep.”
www.businessinsider.com/…
I know this those 90 day Feb contracts just expired a couple days ago. Very likely I think many more were March contracts — but it really does not matter in the end — does it? They will all scram anyway. There are some posts out there that say they are taking their weapons away and separating those people as they try and intimidate them — sure sounds about right to me — Trust me — ain’t gonna work. Like they are trying to stop the spread of a very contagious virus or something with aspirin. They been to the show man— impossible to intimidate them. Been there when kids get short.
They may take those guys weapons from them to prevent a fragging — but they sure did not take the other guys stuff away. I think they should be lookin over their backs 24 hours a day at this point since the other dudes are really all in the same boat right now.
Sure Russia won’t help them get out — they will find their own way out man. They were smart enough not to get killed so far, right?
You know those mercs there — Wagner — were 90 day guys too — wonder how that plays out here. Not a big part of the force — but I am so curious. Do they take the money now — or do they quadruple the rates to go further.
Boy is this going to get interesting!