Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time. A June 28 runoff would take place for any contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.
● MS-04 (R) (68-30 Trump): Six Republicans are trying to deny renomination to Rep. Steven Palazzo, who is facing an ethics investigation into charges that he illegally used campaign funds for personal purposes. There have been no public developments about the probe in over a year, though, and several of the congressman’s rivals are focusing instead on portraying Palazzo as uninterested in doing his job.
The field of challengers for this safely red district along the Gulf Coast (which barely changed during redistricting) includes two elected officials, Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell and state Sen. Brice Wiggins. A pair of self-funders are also running: banker Clay Wagner and Carl Boyanton, who ran in 2020 as well and took fourth with just 9%. A group called Fight for Mississippi PAC that’s funded by Wiggins’ state campaign has spent $140,000 on advertising promoting him and attacking Palazzo.
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
● NJ-05 (R) (56-43 Biden): Four Republicans are campaigning to take on Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a prominent moderate whose North Jersey constituency became significantly more Democratic under the new map. The two main contenders are Marine veteran Nick De Gregorio, who has the influential endorsement from the local Republican Party in populous Bergen County, and 2020 nominee Frank Pallotta, who lost to Gottheimer 53-46. Gottheimer has telegraphed that he wants to go up against Pallotta again, as he’s sent out mailers to conservatives ostensibly attacking him as "too much like Trump," messaging that’s actually designed to make Pallotta more appealing to Republican voters.
● NJ-07 (R) (51-47 Biden): Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski is defending a North Jersey seat where redistricting sharply cut Biden's margin of victory. Seven Republicans are running here, but the frontrunner is Malinowski’s 2020 rival, former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. Kean lost to Malinowski just 51-49 last time, and he has the GOP endorsement in all six of the district's counties.
Kean still faces some notable intra-party opponents, but they all badly trail him financially. The field includes Assemblyman Erik Peterson, Fredon Mayor John Flora, and 2021 gubernatorial candidate Phil Rizzo.
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central Time Zone, and they close an hour later in the remainder of the state. A runoff would be required on Aug. 16 in the races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor if no candidate wins at least 35% of the vote, but there aren't enough contenders in any of those races to make this a possibility.
● SD-Gov (R) (62-36 Trump): Gov. Kristi Noem faces a primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Haugaard, a former state House speaker who, believe it or not, is trying to run to the incumbent's right. Noem, though, has a massive financial edge over the challenger, as well as Trump's endorsement. The winner will take on state House Minority Leader Jamie Smith, who faces no opposition in the Democratic primary.
● SD-AL (R) (62-36 Trump): Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson has intra-party opposition from state Rep. Taffy Howard, a Big Lie supporter who launched her bid last year insisting, "I believe there was fraud in the last election that needs to be investigated. Our current congressman is not willing to admit that there was an issue."
Howard faces a huge fundraising deficit against the incumbent, but a PAC called Drain the D.C. Swamp is responsible for most of the $550,000 that’s been spent on her side, with ads going after Johnson for acknowledging Biden’s 2020 win. Johnson’s allies at Defending Main Street, which is close to the GOP leadership, have shelled out $370,000 in response, and the incumbent himself also went up with ads late in the contest criticizing Howard and defending his own record. No Democrat ended up filing to run for the state's only House seat.
Polls close at 9 PM ET / 8 PM local time. A party convention would select the nominees in any race where no candidate wins at least 35% of the vote, though that’s unlikely to come into play in any of the races in our guide.
● IA-Sen (D) (53-45 Trump): Three Democrats are seeking to take on longtime Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, whose only intra-party challenger is an underfunded far-right state senator named Jim Carlin.
The frontrunner on the Democratic side had long appeared to be former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, who lost a tight battle for a second term last cycle. However, Finkenauer’s campaign almost ended in April when a lower court temporarily threw her off the ballot after it determined she didn’t have enough valid signatures, though the Iowa Supreme Court ultimately ruled in her favor. Her main primary rival is retired Navy Vice Adm. Mike Franken, who badly lost the 2020 primary for Iowa's other Senate seat but released an early May internal showing him edging out Finkenauer 42-40. The third Democrat, Minden City Councilman Glenn Hurst, has attracted little attention.
● IA-03 (R) (49-49 Trump): Three Republicans are competing to take on Rep. Cindy Axne, who emerged from the 2020 elections as Iowa's only Democratic representative, in a district based in Des Moines and southwestern Iowa that closely resembles her current seat.
The top fundraiser is state Sen. Zach Nunn, though businesswoman Nicole Hasso, who would be the state’s first Black member of Congress, has also brought in a notable sum. Nunn has largely focused on service in the Air Force and promoted himself as a tax-cutter, while Hasso has run as an ardent culture warrior. The third Republican is Gary Leffler, who has raised little but gained notoriety for taking part in the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol.
Polls close at 9 PM ET / 7 PM local time
● NM-Gov (R) (54-44 Biden): Five Republicans are challenging Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, but one familiar name appears to have emerged as the frontrunner: 2020 Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman who enjoyed huge leads in a pair of independent polls last month. The field also includes state Rep. Rebecca Dow, who is campaigning to Ronchetti’s right; Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, who has the state party endorsement; retired Army National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti; and anti-abortion activist Ethel Maharg.
Polls close at 10 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
● MT-01 (R & D): (52-45 Trump): Montana has regained the second congressional district it lost after the 1990 census, and, because Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale is running for the more conservative 2nd District, there’s an open race in the western part of the state.
The frontrunner in the five-way GOP primary is Ryan Zinke, who resigned as the state's only House member in 2017 to serve as secretary of the interior. Trump endorsed Zinke's return to Congress last summer, a development that came about two-and-a-half years after Trump reportedly pushed him out of his cabinet in the face of 18 federal investigations. Zinke has since earned renewed scrutiny over some of the probes that led to his departure, as well as how much time he's spent in Santa Barbara, California compared to his home state, as well as, but he's not been charged with anything.
Zinke’s most prominent intra-party rival is former state Sen. Al Olszewski, who is arguing he’s actually the more Trumpian candidate. However, Olszewski’s own recent electoral history has been poor, as he finished last in both the four-way primary for Senate in 2018 and the three-way nomination fight for governor two years later.
Meanwhile, three Democrats are campaigning here, all of whom also unsuccessfully sought office in 2020. Public health expert Cora Neumann left the Senate primary when then-Gov. Steve Bullock launched a late bid, while attorney Monica Tranel, who rowed in the 1996 and 2000 Olympics, lost a close general election for a seat on the Public Service Commission. The third contender is former state Rep. Tom Winter, who ran for Montana's at-large U.S. House seat that year but lost the primary to 2018 nominee Kathleen Williams in an 89-11 landslide.
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time. All the candidates running for Congress and for state office compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will then advance to the Nov. 8 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in June by taking a majority of the vote except in special elections and some officially nonpartisan elections.
● CA-03 (50-48 Trump): Two Republicans and two Democrats are competing for a seat in Sacramento's eastern suburbs that’s open because Republican Rep. Tom McClintock decided to run in the considerably safer 5th District instead. The two Democrats are Kermit Jones, a Navy veteran who would be the first Black person to represent this area in the House, and perennial candidate David Peterson.
The two Republicans, by contrast, are both prominent local elected officials. The better-funded contender is Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, who attracted little attention when he competed in last year's failed recall campaign against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom but has Donald Trump’s backing this time. His intra-party rival is Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who lost a tight 2016 race against Democratic Rep. Ami Bera in the old 7th District. Kiley's legislative district is home to 58% of the 3rd's denizens, while only 16% live in Jones' jurisdiction; however, McClintock, who represents 58% of the redrawn 3rd, is in Jones’ corner.
● CA-05 (55-43 Trump): Republican Rep. Tom McClintock faces intra-party opposition from Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig, who is arguing that the incumbent has done a poor job representing the community, in a race that includes two other Republicans, one Democrat, and an independent. McClintock's existing 4th District makes up just over 40% of the new 5th, which includes the upper Central Valley and Sierra foothills, while fewer than 5,000 people are Magsig's constituents.
● CA-13 (54-43 Biden): Two Democrats and three Republicans are competing for a seat in the mid-Central Valley that became open when Democratic Rep. Josh Harder decided to run for the 9th District following Rep. Jerry McNerney’s retirement.
The two Democratic contenders are Assemblyman Adam Gray and financial advisor Phil Arballo, who lost to Republican Rep. Devin Nunes in 2020 in the old 22nd District. Arballo has been arguing that Gray, a self-described “radical centrist,” is too close to oil companies and other special interests. However, the assemblyman has the backing of well-known Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla, and Rep. Jim Costa, who represents just over half of the new 13th, as well as the state party. And while Gray represents about 60% of the 13th in the legislature, there's no overlap between this congressional district and the one in which Arballo ran last cycle.
The main Republican candidates are agribusinessman John Duarte, who has received aid from the powerful Congressional Leadership Fund, and businessman David Giglio, who has an endorsement from Rep. Tom McClintock. The third Republican, Diego Martinez, has attracted little attention.
● CA-15 (78-20 Biden): Four Democrats, one Republican, and two independents are campaigning to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier in a Silicon Valley-based seat that closely resembles the 14th District she currently serves. Assemblyman Kevin Mullin sports endorsements from both Speier and the state party. The other two main candidates are also Democrats: San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa, who is campaigning as an ardent progressive; and Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach, an Army veteran who has benefited from outside spending from groups dedicated to electing veterans.
● CA-22 (55-42 Biden): Rep. David Valadao, who was one of 10 Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump last year, is defending a Central Valley seat that includes just over half of his existing 21st District. His two intra-party opponents are King County School Board Member Adam Medeiros and former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys, who unsuccessfully ran for office in New Mexico twice in the last two cycles, while Assemblyman Rudy Salas is the only Democratic contender.
While Medeiros nor Mathys have spent much money or picked up any serious endorsements, neither party is acting like either Valadao or Salas are sure bets to advance. The Congressional Leadership Fund has spent $790,000 to boost the incumbent and attack Mathys, while the House Majority PAC has dropped $280,000 to promote Salas and boost Mathys by calling him “100% pro-Trump and proud.”
● CA-27 (55-43 Biden): Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is protecting a seat based in Santa Clarita and Antelope Valley that’s a couple of points bluer than his current 25th District. The two Democrats who have brought in a serious amount of money to take him on are former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who badly lost the spring 2020 special election to Garcia but came just 333 votes shy in their rematch that November, and Navy veteran Quaye Quartey, who would be the first Black congressman from this area. Smith has the state party’s endorsement for her latest campaign, while VoteVets has been spending on Quartey’s behalf. Two Republicans and one Democrat are also on the ballot.
● CA-37 (86-12 Biden): Democratic Rep. Karen Bass is giving up her seat representing central Los Angeles to run for mayor, and five Democrats and two Republicans are campaigning to replace her.
The frontrunner appears to be state Sen. Sydney Kamlager, who represents over 90% of the district in the legislature and has endorsements from Bass and the state Democratic Party; Kamlager has also benefited from over $1 million in outside spending from two crypto-aligned PACs as well as Democratic Majority for Israel. Also running for Team Blue are Culver City Vice Mayor Daniel Lee, whom Kamlager beat in a 69-13 landslide in last year's special election for the state Senate; former Los Angeles City Councilwoman Jan Perry, who lost a 2013 bid for mayor and a 2018 contest for Los Angeles County supervisor; and journalist Michael Shure.
● CA-40 (50-48 Biden): Freshman Republican Rep. Young Kim is seeking re-election in an eastern Orange County district where she currently represents just 20% of the population, and her primary took a sudden and unexpectedly expensive turn in recent weeks.
For most of the campaign, there was every reason to think Kim would easily breeze past her two intra-party foes, Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths and Some Dude Nick Taurus, to set up a general election showdown with race’s only Democrat, physician Asif Mahmood. Mahmood, though, has been running ads designed to help Raths, who's lost several congressional campaigns in this area over the last decade, take Kim’s place on the fall ballot. Kim and her allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have responded with a costly ad campaign of their own attacking Raths and promoting the congresswoman as an ardent conservative.
● CA-41 (50-49 Trump): Rep. Ken Calvert is seeking a 16th term in a suburban Riverside constituency that’s far more competitive than the safely red 42nd District he’s held for the last decade. The two Democrats competing to take him on are former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who has raised the most money, and engineer Shrina Kurani. One Republican and an independent are also on the ballot.
● CA-42 (72-26 Biden): Six Democrats, one Republican, and one Green Party candidate are competing for an open seat that’s largely made up of turf currently represented by two retiring Democrats, Alan Lowenthal and Lucille Roybal-Allard. The two most serious contenders are Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia and Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia, a fellow Democrat who represents communities to the north (the two are not related).
Robert Garcia, who would be the first gay Latino to represent California in Congress, has endorsements from prominent Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla, and Lowenthal, and he’s also enjoyed a big spending edge. Cristina Garcia, meanwhile, has tried to highlight her rival’s Republican past as she’s argued she’s the more dependable progressive, but her behavior in office has brought her bad press.
Robert Garcia and his allies are doing what they can to make sure his general election opponent is Republican John Briscoe, who would pose little threat in a district this blue, rather than a fellow Democrat. The mayor has run commercials designed to help Briscoe get his name out, while crypto-aligned PACs and the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC are responsible for most of the $2.3 million that has been spent promoting Robert Garcia or attacking the assemblywoman. Cristina Garcia, by contrast, has not benefited from any serious outside spending.
● CA-49 (55-43 Biden): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is defending a coastal San Diego County seat that barely changed after redistricting, and three notable Republicans are running to face him. One familiar name is 2020 nominee Brian Maryott, who lost to Levin 53-47 and has the state party endorsement for his second bid. The field also includes Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett and Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez, as well as two other Republicans and an independent.
Levin seems convinced that Rodriguez would be the easiest opponent to beat since he’s sent out mailers ostensibly attacking him for opposing Roe v. Wade while claiming that Maryott has not taken a position; the material did not mention Bartlett, who has brought in considerably less money than the other two Republicans. Rodriguez, meanwhile, has also benefited from $560,000 in outside spending praising him and attacking Maryott. A mid-May internal poll for Rodriguez showed Levin taking 42% as the councilman grabbed second with 13%, while Maryott and Bartlett were just behind with 9% each.
● CA-AG (63-34 Biden): Democrat Rob Bonta was appointed state attorney general last year after incumbent Xavier Becerra resigned to become Joe Biden's HHS secretary, and he now faces a potentially tough fight for a full term. Two Republicans, one independent, and a Green Party candidate have joined him in an unpredictable race that the attorney general and his allies are trying to shape.
Bonta's most formidable foe is arguably Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, a former Republican who became an independent in 2018. While Schubert's lack of party affiliation could be an asset in a general election in this blue state, though, she'll need to first garner enough votes to get past the actual Republicans. The state GOP is backing former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman over the more Trumpian Eric Early, but Bonta’s side has been running commercials helping the underfunded Early get his name out among conservatives.
A recent poll for the Los Angeles Times finds that Bonta could get what he wants. It found the attorney general taking first with 46% as Early edged out Hochman 16-12 for second, with Schubert lagging with 6%.
Comments are closed on this story.