Overnight, things were very bad for those who live in and around the town of Bahkmut. Russia rolled the area with a blanket of rocket after rocket from MLRS systems positioned to the east. Then they followed up with a barrage of conventional artillery.
It seemed to be a direct answer for several days of declining Russian artillery usage, a decline that has directly followed Ukrainian strikes against Russia ammo depots all along the front. Taking advantage of both the range and precision of the U.S. HIMARS weapons system, Ukraine has converted a lot of Russian gear into simply spectacular explosions. A look at the FIRMS data for the last two days shows that even with the overnight barrage added in, there has still be a steep overall decline when it comes to Russia’s use of its big guns throughout the region. Those mountains of exploding ammo, it seems, are having an effect on Russia’s ability to prosecute its main tactic in trying to take and hold territory.
Looking around the eastern battlefield, there are a few things that quickly become obvious.
Russia has had a massive force at Izyum for three months now. Best current estimates still place between 20 and 30 battalion tactical groups in this area, and there seem to be even more fractional units running around. And still, they’re all within about 5 kilometers of where they were three months ago. The resistance that’s continuing at Dovhen'ke likely represents isolated units, as Russian forces have been ranging well to the south. Over at Bohorodychne along the river, Russian forces seem to have occupied most of the town in the last two days. But really, this map could easily be subbed out with one from weeks ago with little obvious difference, right down to the Ukrainian forces still fighting in the woods west of the city.
With the apparent capture of Bohorodychne, it’s possible that Russian forces will soon dislodge Ukrainian troops from the area around Dolyna (a village that Russia has claimed to capture a good dozen times now). But even if they do, there are reportedly Ukrainian forces dug in at the next line of villages to the south.
At this point, despite all the time and resources Russia has pilled into Izyum, it doesn’t look as if the major targets in the area—Slovyansk and Kramatorsk—need to worry about the northwestern flank for now.
On there eastern front there has been movement, but not as much as many media outlets would make it seem. It’s clear now that Lysychansk went down faster than Ukraine had expected, and a good deal of equipment was left in the city as troops hastily withdrew to the west (including M777 howitzers). However, Russia was not able to turn that retreat into a rout, and Ukrainian forces have set up again along a line running down from Siversk to Bakhmut. The town of Siversk itself is on low ground, so the current fight is all about keeping Russia from occupying high ground east of that location. So far, this seems to be a line Ukraine is holding successfully.
At the north end, they’ve pushed back to to retake Bilohorivka twice. But it’s not clear that there’s a tactical advantage in holding that location. At the moment, control of Bilohorivka is uncertain, with Ukrainian forces back around Serebryanka. A number of these villages east of the Siversk-Bakhmut line joined in the general pounding on Tuesday evening. But on Wednesday, it doesn’t appear that Russia has achieved any breakthroughs. The Ukrainian MOD reported Russian assaults on Vesela Dolyna and Yakovlivka, both of which were repelled.
The little group of villages—and honestly, it’s hard to even justify calling them villages—flanking Zaitseve to the southeast of Bakhmut appears to becoming another fortified location for Ukraine.
HIMARS
Ukraine continues to use HIMARS systems to strike warehouses in Russian-occupied territory. On Tuesday evening, that meant a strike against a warehouse (reportedly housing Russian equipment) in Kupyansk, along the river north of Izyum. In addition to another warehouse in the south, Ukraine also apparently used HIMARS or short-range ballistic missiles to hit this target. If it was in fact HIMARS, then Ukraine already has some of the longer-range missiles.
Satellite photos seemed to indicate that the helicopters moved to this location after being pushed out of the airport immediately west of Kherson. It seems like they may not have moved far enough.
Also on the probably-HIMARS front ...
Someone had been predicting that when the obvious targets for ammunition depots and equipment warehouses had been eliminated, Ukraine would turn to air defense targets to clear the way for counteroffensives. That someone would be kos.
M777
Remember when the U.S. mentioned that they were sending Ukraine some upgraded artillery ammunition? Assumptions have tended to run to the longer-range HIMARS rockets, but there’s another alternative: GPS-guided M982 Excalibur shells. With a range of 40 to 55 kilometers and the accuracy to hit a single vehicle at that distance, these shells make a huge difference. Yes, an Excalibur shell currently costs around $60,000. However, that’s far cheaper than a HIMARS rocket and Excalibur’s range and accuracy allows it to replace an estimated 10 to 50 “dumb” artillery shells. When it comes to taking out a target, Excalibur may actually be cheaper than just throwing regular shells.
However, using Excalibur takes more than just the fancy ammo. It also takes … hello. What is this?