Maybe you want to read this — These notes below just scratch the surface here of what she is saying.
Both generals Hodges and Hertling think she has superb insights. I sure do.
I will clip some of it —
“Ukraine is likely going to end in very Russian way. It’s starting to look like the armies of Vladimir Putin will go home on foot, leaving a lot of equipment behind. Why? They are facing a logistics collapse like that seen by the armies of the Tzar in 1917, after the Summer offensive.”...”
“General Budanov correctly predicted when the Russian invasion would happen when others in his government were publicly sceptical and now says he is confident about predicting its conclusion. ”The breaking point will be in the second part of August. ”Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year….”
“So, somebody within the Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed how bad the logistics are. He has also told the world, or at least those of us who read certain Telegram channels, this is from Volyanedia, just how bad the Russian situation is. We already knew that troops were also refusing to fight. The number of refuseniks is growing...”
According to our sources in the army, difficulties have already begun with barrels for self-propelled guns, howitzers and heavy guns….
Barrels need to be changed regularly, or they will fail. When they fail, if lucky, you only get them to banana, as the explosive gasses breakthrough. If not, you get an explosion that injures and kills personnel...
Let’s just say these failures are terrible for morale. Artillerymen know the barrels need changing. They also know what happens and likely why when barrels fail...
“The barrels wear out quickly, faster than the factory parameters, because either the steel is worthless, or they are made with a violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now, because there are few new trunks. Near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, at some point, one of the three guns worked for us. And it looks like it will get worse in the future,” says the Russian artilleryman.
Remember the general that shot himself? Here you have absolute confirmation of what we were told. Perhaps ninety percent was too high, but one in four tanks that work is a problem. I have gotten confirmation from a source on this as well...No wonder crews abandoned these tanks.
In general, the situation with the technical support of the Russian troops, according to many Russian officers, is becoming close to critical, and by August threatens to become catastrophic...”August will be really bad. We will not see new equipment, and there will be nothing and nothing to repair the old one. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine go forward at this moment, then we will have nothing to stop them, ”says another Russian staff officer.”
There will be a come to Jesus moment and it will be in August and Russia cannot stop this. I am dead sure UKR is going to really push in the southern axis. It is the smart thing to do and they are doing it already. They know. I tried to say before — I really thought they were ruining their artillery, fired so hot every day, 60,000 rounds a day that I saw no way they could maintain those guns. I spoke of this and some MOS 13s made it pretty clear — not my MOS, but I think it was pretty fucking clear they were firing them to shit . Do you know — RU fired more artillery here in 4 months then we did in 20 years! What neither of us took into account though was that Russia was producing those guns with crap steel and cutting corners. Honest to god — an artillery based army one would think would have well built guns. Guess not. It is why they are mostly aiming at cities I am sure — cause I don’t think they can hit the broad side of a barn so to speak.
So, when general Hodges said that July would be a bad month for Russia — how prophetic — August will be catastrophic.
Like I said — both Hertling and Hodges think she is dead on. I am sure they are not alone either. My optimism in this whole war was really man — I believed our former commanders that commanded armies. They know how one does war. That and I could read a war game. And they both matched up. So my optimism is quit tempered by the fact that I plainly believe our best commanders and ignore stupid doom and gloom shit. Why in god’s name would anyone believe BS written by people that never did a war, likely not even in the combat? That try and draw conclusions based on tactical issues that have little to no bearing on the larger operational issues involved. Certainly not strategically.
This writer here and I sure have one thing in common — we both studied military history. Clearly so. And we are both paying close attention to our retired generals that actually commanded entire armies. The only real issue I saw between all our military leaders was only if we were giving UKR enough arms fast enough. Has nothing to do with the outcome in the end— just how long it takes (as long as we keep suppling those arms) — and just how many people die.
Russia has lost this war and their senior officers know it.
Kind of interesting to me Nadin sees this war in more 20th century terms. I know we are both fluent in the study — but I look at it and I see Alexander defeating Darius, Hannibal defeating Varros, because honest to god, war never really changes — just weapons and tactics driven by new weapons. And it gets repeated over and over again- from at least the 5thy century BC to this day. This war is no different.