"Russian military leadership will continue to push for advances outside Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine."
The protracted war continues with attacks and counterattacks, and Russia continues to consolidate its hold on occupied areas.
Key Takeaways
- Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev restated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial objectives for operations in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin retains maximalist objectives including regime change and territorial expansion far beyond the Donbas.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest and east of Slovyansk.
- Russian forces are attempting to advance west of the Lysychansk area toward Siversk.
- Russian forces are likely attempting to gain access to village roads southeast of Bakhmut in order to advance on the city from the south.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Donetsk City.
- Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
- Russian authorities are conducting escalated conscription measures in occupied territories to compensate for continuing manpower losses.
- Russian authorities are continuing to consolidate administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine, likely to set conditions for the direct annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation.
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The governor of Donetsk has urged 350,000 civilians to evacuate as Russian troops escalate their offensive in the region. “The destiny of the whole country will be decided by the Donetsk region,” Pavlo Kyrylenko told reporters. “Once there are less people, we will be able to concentrate more on our enemy and perform our main tasks.”
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Ukrainian forces have taken up new defensive lines in Donetsk, where they still control major cities, and plan to launch counter-offensives in the south of the country. The Luhansk governor, Serhiy Haidai, said the weeks-long battle for Lysychansk had drawn in Russian troops that could have been fighting on other fronts, and had given Ukraine’s forces time to build fortifications in the Donetsk region to make it “harder for the Russians there”.
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Ukraine has asked Turkey to investigate three additional Russian ships that it alleges transported stolen grain. A 13 June letter seen by Reuters revealed that the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office asked Turkey’s ministry of justice to investigate and provide evidence on three ships that it believes to have allegedly transported stolen grain from occupied Ukrainian territories such as Kherson.
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Russia is planning to launch a railway link between Rostov region and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk it occupies in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reports. Building transport links has also been a priority for the Russian occupiers between Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and the areas of Kherson which it occupies.
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The 30 Nato member countries have signed accession protocols for Finland and Sweden, sending the membership bids of the two Nordic countries to allied parliaments for approval. Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, urged allies to swiftly ratify and assured the two countries of the alliance’s support in the meantime. Canada became the first country to formally ratify Finland and Sweden’s accession.
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The UN has documented 270 cases of “arbitrary detention and enforced disappearance” of civilians in parts of Ukraine held by Russian and Russian-backed forces, according to the UN’s human rights chief, Michelle Bachelet. In a speech at the same session at the UN’s human rights council, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Emine Dzhaparova accused Russia of kidnappings on a “massive” scale.
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Latvia will reinstate compulsory military service, its defence minister, Artis Pabriks, announced on Tuesday following growing tension with neighbouring Russia amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
www.theguardian.com/...
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces continued limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City on July 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are focusing on maintaining defensive positions and repelling Ukrainian advances and that Russian troops attempted an unsuccessful assault near Sosnivka.[18] The Derhachi City Council reported that Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assaults on Prudyanka, Dementiivka, and Pytomnk.[19] Russian forces continued intense air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and force concentrations in Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements.[20] www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations to the northwest and east of Slovyansk on July 5.[6] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanuk stated that elements of the Russian 8th and 58th Combined Arms Armies, mobilization reserve of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (forces of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics), and elements of the 2nd Guards Tank Army, 41st Combined Arms Army, 90th Tank Division, 68th Army Corps, and Airborne Forces (VDV) are currently active in the Donbas and likely participating in efforts to advance on Slovyansk.[7] Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks on Dolyna and Krasnopillya, both along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border northwest of Slovyansk.[8] Russian forces conducted continued artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions southeast of Izyum along the E40 highway and fired on Dibrove, Dolyna, Adamivka, Bohorodychne, and Mazanivka.[9] Russian forces also fired on Kryva Luka, about 20km east of Slovyansk, in order to continue to set conditions for advances on Slovyansk from the southwest of Lyman.[10] Slovyansk Mayor Vadym Lyakh reported that Russian forces conducted an artillery strike directly on Slovyansk and indicated that artillery strikes on the city have recently intensified.[11]
Russian forces continued efforts to push west from Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border towards Siversk on July 5.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces conducted an airstrike near Siversk and fired on civilian infrastructure in Serebryanka—a settlement 5 km northeast of Siversk directly along the Luhansk-Donetsk Oblast border.[13] Russian sources also reported that Russian troops have begun demining and clearing Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to expand their control and administrative presence of the area and continue to use it as a base for future offensives to the west.[14] www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces prioritized holding defensive lines and repelling Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis on July 5. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian platoon-level attack near Lozove (southwest of Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast), which indicates that Ukrainian forces likely either reestablished a bridgehead at Lozove at an unspecified previous date or have consistently maintained the one they established in early June.[21] This report is the first mention by Ukrainian officials of control of terrain on the left bank of the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid since the Ukrainian General Staff reported a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Sukhyi Stavok on June 5.[22] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed on July 4 that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults on the Snuhurivka-Lozove-Bila Krynytsya lines along the Inhulets River.[23] While exact control of terrain around Lozove and Davydiv Brid remains unclear, Ukrainian forces likely did seize some territory in this area. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data showed fires near south and east of Lozove on July 5, consistent with the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command’s report. Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure behind the front line across the Southern Axis on July 5.[24] www.understandingwar.org/...
Yandex’s value, one as high as $31 billion, shriveled to $7 billion after the Ukraine invasion.
Often called “the coolest company in Russia,” Yandex employed more than 18,000 people; its founders were billionaires; and at its peak last November, it was worth more than $31 billion. Then President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine.
Almost overnight, as Western investors bolted from Russia and Western governments imposed harsh economic sanctions, its value dropped to less than $7 billion. The Nasdaq stock exchange suspended trading in its shares.
The sudden distaste for most things Russian prompted the company to shutter various international businesses, including the delivery services in London, Paris and Columbus.
Thousands of employees — nearly a sixth of the total — fled the country. Its founder, Arkady Volozh, and his top deputy stepped aside after the European Union sanctioned both, accusing them of abetting Kremlin disinformation.
www.nytimes.com/…
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