After months of assuming Democrats would suffer epic losses at the polls this November, journalists are now catching on to the idea that candidates actually matter. That is particularly true in a handful of critical Senate races, where Republicans have nominated what one Democratic strategist described as an "island of misfit toys."
The New York Times has a roundup of recent missteps by GOP Senate candidates, who have been readily gifting Democrats ammunition for the fall.
Arizona Republican Blake Masters, leading the GOP Senate primary, blamed “Black people, frankly," for most of America's gun violence.
Georgia Republican and former football star Herschel Walker, who revels in railing against absentee fathers, recently admitted to fathering three children he had never publicly acknowledged before.
Pennsylvania Republican and TV huckster Mehmet Oz, a carpetbagger from New Jersey, recently misspelled the name of his new home away from home on an official campaign form.
Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt, the state's former attorney general, derided the landmark Roe v. Wade decision as "always a joke" while attending a pancake breakfast in June. A survey last year found that 65% of Nevadans identify as pro-choice, including 66% of independents. Laxalt even lamented during his remarks, "We’re not a pro-life state. We all have to be honest about that. It’s sad, it doesn’t make me happy,
Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson's attempt to deliver two slates of fake electors on Jan. 6 to Vice President Mike Pence was recently revealed during House a select committee hearing. Oops. Johnson's alibi has been a work in progress ever since.
At this point in time, with the election still four months away, Senate Democrat incumbents stand a legitimate chance of holding the line in November. That includes the three most endangered incumbents, Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.
At the same time, Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman, current lieutenant governor, appears decently positioned to capture the state's open Senate seat (a flip for Democrats), while GOP Sen. Johnson could be vulnerable to attacks waged by his eventual Democratic challenger (primary on Aug. 9).
The Democratic-aligned political group Future Majority PAC recently released polling showing improving prospects for Democrats following the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe.
As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg noted regarding Democratic incumbents:
- AZ – Mark Kelly leads Republicans Blake Masters, 48-39, and Jim Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March.
- GA – Raphael Warnock leads Herschel Walker 48-44. He trailed 48-49 in March.
- NH – Maggie Hassan leads Republican Don Bolduc 49-40. They didn’t poll NH in March.
- NV – Catherine Cortez Masto leads Adam Laxalt 46-43. She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.
As Rosenberg also writes, GOP incumbents are looking weak.
Fetterman has meaningful leads in several recent polls, and now has to be considered a favorite in that race. Ron Johnson trailed 3 of his 4 opponents in a new Marquette University poll, a poll that suggests that Johnson – even before Roe and his admitted involvement in Trump’s effort to overturn the election – is in serious trouble. ...
Bottom line – Dems are in our book now favorites to keep the Senate, and have a shot at picking up 1-2 seats.
Far from Senate Republicans being on a glide path to victory in November, they are instead more likely to lose seats than gain them. Mainstream media is starting to catch up.
Privacy as a foundational value in a post-Roe landscape on Daily Kos' The Brief podcast
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