Let me start off with a scene from the movie “Apollo 13” that I think has applicability to the upcoming 2022 mid-terms, to give you a hint at where I’m going with this TWIC post:
In the movie one of the Houston Mission control team is listing off all of the many things that could go wrong on the Apollo capsule’s re-entry to earth, to the Head of Mission Control, Gene Krantz. He then tells Gene,
“This could be the biggest tragedy in NASA’s history.”
To which Gene replies,
“On the contrary, I think this is going to be NASA’s finest hour.”
I think too many around here are feeling like the “doom and gloom” NASA technician in the movie. They are obsessed with all the things that could go wrong for us Democrats in the mid-terms. From the media’s focus on the historic trends of mid-terms going against the Party who holds the White House, to the uphill climb posed by the many Republican Gerrymandered Congressional Districts, to President Biden’s somewhat low approval ratings, to inflation & high gas prices, and on and on. It often seems that some of us Democrats have a strong tendency to always look on the dark side of every situation, and as such sink into a deep political depression. Despair and Depression are not good motivators on which to mount a successful GOTV effort, to say the least.
For me, some of you, and I hope more of you after reading my posts, I / we are in the Gene Krantz optimistic camp, and
“On the contrary, I / we think this is going to be NASA’s Democrats’ finest hour.”
Why do I / we feel this way?
Well in this post (Part One of a series), I will try to explain my reasons for optimism, which are based on where we currently stand in terms of control of both Houses of Congress (and how we got here), what we need to overcome our current obstacles (Manchin & Sinema) to our policy agenda, and the specific Progressive legislative goals that can be achieved by overcoming these obstacles in the mid-terms.
Where We Stand:
I want to take you all back in time a bit (I can do that you know, I’m the Doctor), to give you all a little perspective on the progress we have made despite the dooms-day-ers and nay-sayers in the media and even some within our Party. Let me take you back to Election Day 2016, when not only did Trump win, the Republicans also obtained majorities in both the House and Senate, giving the GOP pretty much complete control of the Executive and Legislative Branches of the Federal government. This, it turned out was our low point, whereby the GOP proceeded to ram through a big tax cut for the Ubber Rich, and was able to confirm a number of Trump unqualified, far-right judges.
Then just two years later in 2018, we Democrats managed to take control of the House and put the gavel back into Nancy Pelosi’s capable hands. While we still couldn’t get our legislation through, we managed to completely put the brakes on the Trump/GOP legislative agenda.
Flash forward again to Election Day 2020, and we won back the Executive Branch and booted Trump out of the White House (despite Trump’s attempt at a political coup and insurrection), and retained our majority in the House. Then in early January with just 2 seats short of Dem. control of the Senate, we managed to pull off nothing short of a political miracle in the formerly Red State of Georgia by winning run-offs in both Georgia Senate seats, giving us (with VP Harris’s vote) majority control of the Senate. This gave our side the ability to pass (or so we thought at the time) much of the Biden agenda which turned out to be far more Progressive than some of us thought it would be.
In addition, over the past 2 House elections (2018 & 2020) we have managed to put together a Progressive governing coalition in the House. Remember back in the Obama years when Pelosi was attempting to get the ACA passed in the House with only a slim Dem. majority. She had to cope with the Dem. “Blue Dogs” who were insisting on additional “pro-life birth” wording in the Bill beyond that already in the Hyde Amendment. Well the “Blue Dogs” are all gone now (AMEN!), and Pelosi has a nearly 100% cooperative Dem. majority that has passed Bill after Bill of Progressive legislation through the House.
The point of the above is to illustrate that since 2016, we Democrats have made slow, but steady electoral progress and there’s little reason to believe it can’t continue. Yes we hit two unexpected, or maybe expected roadblocks in Manchin and Sinema (Manchinema), more on them later, But we have made some legislative progress (e.g., infrastructure) and there is a chance for more before the mid-terms. We also have gotten and continue to get a number of Biden judges confirmed to slowly take back the Federal Courts.
Still, there is no getting around the Manchinema elephant in the room. Their fervent and unwavering belief that the political Minority must be given a say in all legislative matters has allowed the obstructionist GOP Minority to ride rough shot over the Democratic Majority. Whether it’s Manchinema’s constant moving of the goal posts with regard to using Budget Reconciliation to pass aspects of Biden’s BuildBackBetter (BBB) agenda without GOP involvement or their staunch defense of the current filibuster rules which has allowed Republicans to block everything else except administrative and judicial appointments, has pretty much stymied our Progressive Agenda this term. Although, there is still an outside chance that Schumer and Manchin will reach some sort of and agreement on aspects of the BBB that can be passed under Budget Reconciliation rules before the mid-terms, and anything passed will be a boost for our team in those mid-terms.
So for the Lack of Two Senators, let’s take a look at the laundry list of Progressive legislation passed by the House this term which Manchinema has allowed to be bottled up in the Senate “in-basket”. But as you read through the list below, I would ask you all to avoid feeling pessimistic over what the Congress has failed to pass this term due to Manchinema, and instead view the list from an optimistic point of view in terms of it being a list of what Congress CAN pass in 2023 if we can succeed in flipping at least two more Senate seats to make Manchinema IRRELEVENT:
NOTE: The list below is not an exhaustive list of House passed legislation in the 2021-2022 term that remains bottled up in the Senate. I have just picked some of the major Bills which are organized by topic in alphabetical order starting with Abortion. Each listed Bill Title below provides a link to a complete Bill Summary and a subsequent link to the Bill’s text. I have also put together a short summary of what’s in each Bill. So here we go!
Abortion:
1. H.R.3755 - Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 — A Bill that codifies (puts into Federal Law) the Abortion Rights protections previously provided by Roe v. Wade, and supersedes any and all State laws which inhibit a women’s right to obtain an abortion or a medical facility’s ability to perform abortions.
Climate Change:
1. H.R.5376 - Build Back Better Act — In terms of addressing Climate Change, this Bill provides Federal funding for:
- safe drinking water and energy-efficiency projects;
- electric vehicles and zero-emission, heavy-duty vehicles;
- wildfire prevention, drought relief, conservation efforts, and climate change research;
- transit services and clean energy projects in low-income communities; and
- establish a methane fee for certain petroleum and natural gas facilities;
Economic Inequality:
1. H.R.5376 - Build Back Better Act — In terms of addressing Economic Inequality this Bill provides for a restructure and increase taxes for certain corporations and high-income individuals (e.g., individuals with income over $400,000).
Family Assistance / Leave:
1. H.R.5376 - Build Back Better Act — In terms of addressing Family Assistance / Leave this Bill provides:
- free child care for children under the age of six;
- free universal preschool services; and
- up to four weeks of paid family and medical leave per year;
Gun Safety:
1. H.R.7910 - Protecting Our Kids Act — This bill
- generally prohibits the sale or transfer of certain semiautomatic firearms to individuals who are under 21 years of age;
- establishes new federal criminal offenses for gun trafficking and related conduct;
- establishes a federal statutory framework to regulate ghost guns (i.e., guns without serial numbers);
- establishes a framework to regulate the storage of firearms on residential premises at the federal, state, and tribal levels;
- subjects bump stocks to regulation under federal firearms laws;
- generally prohibits the import, sale, manufacture, transfer, and possession of large capacity ammunition feeding devices; and
- requires the Department of Justice to report on the demographic data of persons who are determined to be ineligible to purchase a firearm based on a background check performed by the national instant criminal background check system.
Health Care / Insurance:
1. H.R.5376 - Build Back Better Act — In terms of addressing Health Care this Bill:
- provides funding for public health infrastructure and supply chain resiliency; and
- require the Department of Health and Human Services to negotiate maximum prices for certain brand-name drugs under Medicare.
2. H.R.6833 - Affordable Insulin Now Act — This bill limits cost-sharing for insulin under private health insurance and the Medicare prescription drug benefit.
Specifically, the bill caps cost-sharing under private health insurance for a month's supply of selected insulin products at $35 or 25% of a plan's negotiated price (after any price concessions), whichever is less, beginning in 2023.
Voting Rights:
1. H.R.1 - For the People Act of 2021 — Specifically, the bill expands voter registration (e.g., automatic and same-day registration) and voting access (e.g., vote-by-mail and early voting). It also limits removing voters from voter rolls.
The bill requires states to establish independent redistricting commissions to carry out congressional redistricting.
Additionally, the bill sets forth provisions related to election security, including sharing intelligence information with state election officials, supporting states in securing their election systems, developing a national strategy to protect U.S. democratic institutions, establishing in the legislative branch the National Commission to Protect United States Democratic Institutions, and other provisions to improve the cybersecurity of election systems.
Further, the bill addresses campaign finance, including by expanding the prohibition on campaign spending by foreign nationals, requiring additional disclosure of campaign-related fundraising and spending, requiring additional disclaimers regarding certain political advertising, and establishing an alternative campaign funding system for certain federal offices.
2. H.R.4 - John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2021 — This bill establishes new criteria for determining which states and political subdivisions must obtain preclearance before changes to voting practices may take effect. Preclearance is the process of receiving preapproval from the Department of Justice (DOJ) or the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia before making legal changes that would affect voting rights.
A state and all of its political subdivisions shall be subject to preclearance of voting practice changes for a 10-year period if
- 15 or more voting rights violations occurred in the state during the previous 25 years;
- 10 or more violations occurred during the previous 25 years, at least 1 of which was committed by the state itself; or
- 3 or more violations occurred during the previous 25 years and the state administers the elections.
A political subdivision as a separate unit shall also be subject to preclearance for a 10-year period if three or more voting rights violations occurred there during the previous 25 years.
States and political subdivisions that meet certain thresholds regarding minority groups must preclear covered practices before implementation, such as changes to methods of election and redistricting.
Further, states and political subdivisions must notify the public of changes to voting practices.
Next, the bill authorizes DOJ to require states or political subdivisions to provide certain documents or answers to questions for enforcing voting rights.
The bill also outlines factors courts must consider when hearing challenges to voting practices, such as the extent of any history of official voting discrimination in the state or political subdivision.
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Well that’s the summarized list of the things we could have but for the lack of two Senators. But more importantly these are just some of the things we could have if we flip at least two more Senate Seats to Blue this Fall!
I say some of the things because there are many more Bills like these which have been introduced in the House and Senate but not yet passed by either body.
Now I have to add a few caveats here, because I don’t want to leave the false impression that getting the above Bills into law is as simple as flipping two Senate seats. Here’s what else needs to happen:
1. Hold/Expand Our House Majority — Holding/Expanding the House majority is just as important as flipping seats in the Senate. Without us having House majority control, none of the Progressive legislation on our wish list has a chance in hell. That’s because all the Bills passed by the House this term and sent over to die in the Senate will sunset at the end of the 2022, meaning they will all have to be re-introduced and passed by the House in the 2023-2024 term to even get to the Senate.
2. Pin Senate Candidates Down on the Filibuster — We need to make sure that each of our Senate candidates, whether incumbents or Republican challengers, are 100% behind abolishing, or at least substantially modifying the filibuster. There is no sense in backing Senate candidates who are non-committal on the issue.
3. Flip More Than Two Senate Seats — It’s more than likely that Manchiema are not the only two Senators who are weak on filibuster reform, which is the key to passing our Progressive legislation through the Senate. Dianne Feinstein and maybe others hiding behind the Manchiema wall may pop up as the new defenders of the filibuster after Manchiema becomes irrelevant. Now, I don’t think other current Senate Dems. will be a complete block to filibuster reform as Manchiema, but they may force compromises into modest filibuster reforms or only agree to “carve outs” for specific legislation. So the more seats we flip beyond two, the more likely it is to abolish or severely curtail the filibuster.
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Well, that’s it for Part One of my Special TWIC Series.
If Part One did nothing else, I hope it got you in an optimistic mood as we head into the mid-terms. To put it into football terms in 2016 Team Republican had the ball and was marching down the field. In 2018, Team Democrat took the ball back and we have been slowly but steadily marching down the field towards our end zone. Now we are on the 10 yard line and the mid-terms will decide whether we give the ball back or are at 1st and goal at the 10. Just remember how far we have come and how close we are to our Progressive legislative victories, and get yourself motivated for 2022 GOTV!
In the coming months between now and the 2022 elections, I will attempt to provide three (3) more parts to this “For The Lack Of Two Senators” Series, in between my usual TWIC posts when Congress is in Session. In:
Part Two — I will cover the issues I think our candidates should run on to give us our best chances of holding the House and expanding our Senate majority;
Part Three — I will cover the Senate races and take a deep dive into the polls (via 538) to highlight the seats we must defend and the most likely flips, so that we can best direct our financial and pavement pounding GOTV efforts, as well as taking a deep dive into the weeds of filibuster reform; and
Part Four — I will cover some of the House races and take a deep dive into the polls (via 538) to highlight the seats we must defend and the most likely flips, so that we can best direct our financial and pavement pounding GOTV efforts.
See Ya Soon!