Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Violating the Espionage Act is a BFD

Politico:

FBI search warrant shows Trump under investigation for potential obstruction of justice, Espionage Act violations

A search warrant viewed by POLITICO reveals that the FBI is investigating Donald Trump for potential violations of the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice laws.

The warrant shows federal law enforcement was investigating Trump for removal or destruction of records, obstruction of justice and violating the Espionage Act — which can encompass crimes beyond spying, such as the refusal to return national security documents upon request. Conviction under the statutes can result in imprisonment or fines.

My extraordinarily trollish take for tonight is that this has been a pretty good month for the idea that maybe we should just put people with a lot of experience, and who care a lot about institutions and rules, in charge.

— Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) August 11, 2022

Max Boot/WaPo:

Republicans went crazy over the Trump search. Now they look idiotic.

This new information turns the Trump narrative — that he is being treated worse than anyone ever in all of U.S. history — on its head. Imagine what would have happened to a lower-level government employee who was suspected of taking highly classified documents without authorization. I very much doubt that the FBI would have dealt with such a person as gently as they dealt with Trump. Anyone else caught with top-secret documents — and suspected of obstructing justice and violating the Espionage Act — would probably be in federal custody by now. Reality Winner, a former National Security Agency contractor, was sentenced to more than five years in prison for leaking documents relating to Russian interference in the 2016 election a whole lot less sensitive than the ones Trump is suspected of taking.

The right now appears to be in disarray. The ex-president’s old story has been rendered “inoperative,” as Nixon press secretary Ron Ziegler used to say, and they need a new one.

But the damage has been done. The right’s hysterical, hyperbolic reaction has weaponized their unhinged followers. On Thursday, an armed man died in a standoff with police after trying to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati office. The gunman was evidently a prolific contributor on Trump’s Truth Social site. After the FBI search, a user with his name wrote that this was a “call to arms” and “we must respond with force.”

With all the usual qualifiers, whole bunch of economic news that’s been directionally good in a short span — not just jobs, gas and inflation, but inflation expectations, consumer confidence https://t.co/yftEG4DW6h

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) August 12, 2022

The Shovel:

The Shovel’s view on the Donald Trump FBI raid

We are certainly no fans of Donald Trump – let’s make that clear from the outset. But yesterday’s raid by the FBI on the home of a former president sets a dangerous precedent.

A precedent which now means that anyone who evades taxes, attempts to undermine an election, sexually assaults women, manipulates the value of their assets, uses state resources to enrich themselves or aids and abets the overthrow of a democratically elected government will be subject to investigation.

Key point:

Two sections of the Espionage Act (§ 793(d) & (f)) apply even to those *lawfully* in possession of national security information — and prohibit certain conduct even by those who were entitled to have the underlying material in the first place:https://t.co/0zbMjMdtma pic.twitter.com/6DCDTzISWw

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) August 12, 2022

Peter Wehner/Atlantic:

Now They’re Calling for Violence

Trump loyalists have reacted to the search of the ex-president’s Mar-a-Lago residence with unhinged fury.

Clearly, at this early stage, the responsible reaction to what the FBI did is to withhold judgment, to wait and see, to base one’s assessment on the facts and the evidence as they become known. But such an approach is alien to the modern-day GOP. The entire incentive structure is to use language that is intemperate, belligerent, conspiratorial, even crazed. This week has once again proved that there’s no rhetorical line Trump Republicans won’t cross, no outlandish charge they won’t make. It’s now all about one-upmanship, with each person trying to make a more freakish claim than the next.

This debasement of language comes at a considerable cost. George Orwell believed that political language mattered because politics mattered, and that the corruption of one leads to the corruption of the other. And in some cases, the misuse of words can lead to political violence. We saw that on January 6, 2021. My fear is we’re edging ever closer to that. Some people on the right—enraged and inflamed, caught in an echo chamber of undiluted anger and massive lies—clearly hope for it. They are perpetually frenzied and hyper-agitated, convinced they are in an existential struggle against a wicked foe.

In the face of this, virtually the entire Republican Party is egging them on. Based on no evidence right now, Republicans are promoting a narrative that the events of this week prove that the United States government and its chief law-enforcement agency are Nazi-like, corrupt to the core, at war with its own citizens. This can’t end well.

Jennifer Bendery/HuffPost:

Nancy Pelosi To GOP: Stop 'Instigating Assaults' On Law Enforcement Over FBI Trump Raid

"You would think there would be an adult in the Republican room that would say, 'Just calm down, see what the facts are,'" the speaker said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Friday that former President Donald Trump and Republicans are fueling violence against law enforcement and public officials with their overheated rhetoric about the FBI’s search of Trump’s Florida house ― and it needs to stop.

Asked if she’s concerned about an uptick in violence from Trump’s extremist base of supporters, Pelosi said it’s already happening.

“It’s certainly enhanced, if that’s the word,” she told Capitol Hill reporters. “Exacerbated by the statements of this [former] president.”

“You would think there would be an adult in the Republican room that would say, ‘Just calm down, see what the facts are, and let’s go for that,’ instead of, again, instigating assaults on law enforcement,” the House speaker said.

Congressional Dems pass their largest health care package in over a decade.

The bill ...
— Allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices for the first time
— Extends enhanced ACA subsidies through 2025
— Limits seniors' drug costs to $2000 a yearhttps://t.co/vajckxunqe

— Rachel Roubein (@rachel_roubein) August 12, 2022

Aaron Blake/WaPo:

2 illuminating exchanges from the House GOP on the FBI’s Trump search

Many Republicans went out on a limb for Trump. The strength of that branch is about to be tested — as a pair of exchanges reinforces.

One of the unfortunate realities of our current political setup is that key figures can promote their message largely in partisan silos where they won’t be questioned. So when Republicans and conservative pundits advance baseless speculation that President Biden approved the Mar-a-Lago search warrant or that the FBI might have planted evidence — or simply claim that the search was an abuse of power without knowing much of anything about it — unchallenged, it takes hold among large segments of the population.

But we’re starting to see the GOP be asked to account for the remarkable faith it rather blindly invested in these talking points and in Donald Trump’s actions. And on Friday, two exchanges stood out.

Will this affect the midterms? Well, let me plug the “Former President investigated for espionage” dummy variable into the old equation and we’ll see.

— Seth Masket (@smotus) August 12, 2022

Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight:

Will This Be An Asterisk* Election?

*It takes something unusual for the president’s party to do well in the midterms.

If nothing else, Democratic voters have no shortage of motivation to turn out: Many feel as though their basic rights are being threatened, something a party’s voters ordinarily aren’t concerned about when it controls both the presidency and Congress. The “enthusiasm gap” often accounts for much of the presidential party’s disadvantage at the midterms, but it’s not clear it exists this year after Roe was overturned.

All that said, Republicans are still fairly clear favorites to keep the House. Notably, President Biden is quite unpopular despite a modest improvement in his approval ratings, whereas FDR, JFK, Clinton and GWB were all popular at the times of their midterms. The public still has very negative views about the economy and the direction the country is headed in, and that’s usually rough for the party in power to overcome.

But the circumstances of these midterms are also potentially unusual, with high uncertainty, and that’s why Democrats keeping the House is a thinkable outcome.