Russia continues to flood forces into the Kherson area in response to Ukraine’s repeated declarations that it is just this close from launching its long-expected counter-offensive to retake its land. The whole situation continues to have the feel of a trap as Ukraine systematically eliminates ammunition depots and supply routes into the region.
This now means that both supply routes into the west side of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region are now blown.
Only two bridges connect Kherson and all that red territory to the north of the Dnipro river. The Antonovsky bridge near Kherson (which remains inoperable), and the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. This is why the betrayal at the beginning of the war was so painful—all Ukraine had to do was blow both bridges and Russia would’ve never been able to take Kherson. Local government officials conspired with Russians to sabotage the city’s defense, and countless lives have been lost as a result, and countless more will do so in the months ahead.
Ukraine has also begun hitting the two bridges connecting Crimea (the purple at the bottom of the map) with Kherson oblast. Cutting off Melitopol from the south will be critical to retaking that city. Russia can barge some supplies across the Dnipro, as well as helicopter stuff over, but their insatiable artillery can’t be fed by barges and aircraft. And Ukraine’s degradation of Russia’s air defenses means Ukrainian aircraft can better engage moving target—those barges and supply helicopters.
Russia isn’t surrendering that territory without a fight, but … its generals may have lost their appetite for being on the wrong side of the Dnipro.
This could obviously be propaganda, but several Russian generals and other high command have already bit the dust in this region, particularly at Kherson’s airport at Chernobaivka. If true, it could certainly be a sign that Russian high command expects Ukrainian forces to advance.
Some odds and ends, this is a great thread: Russians don’t care about dead Ukrainians or dead fellow Russian soldiers. They don’t even care about starvation out in the hinterlands. What do they care about? Having several varieties of yogurt available at the supermarket:
This one is so fantastical, it can’t possibly be true:
Igor Strelkov is the war criminal who led Donbas forces in the 2014 war. He also has a regular Telegram podcast (or whatever it is they call it) where he rails against the incompetence of the Russian war effort. His doomcasting is incredibly entertaining, so I’m really hoping this isn’t legit, and that he will continue to entertain us with his coverage of the war.
Russia begins repairing the Antonovsky bridge, for some bizarre reason, and Ukraine just smashes it again.
If you’re wondering why there are explosions in the air, the Russian propagandists will tell you that they are intercepting HIMARS rockets. The reality? Russia is attempting a WWII tactic—trying to take out air targets using timed fuses and flak.
Russia has no way to intercept HIMARS rockets.
And more railway links from Crimea are struck.
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