What we have been doing here at Hope Springs from Field PAC is commonly characterized as Deep Organizing (some call it Relational Organizing). And while I appreciate the new nomenclature, it has a purpose. Knocking on doors “year round” (sorta) has benefits that feed into what I call “preparing the battle space.” Not only are we registering voters, and updating voter addresses that had an added benefit this cycle (people could sign up for the Active Early Voting List), but we are also finding addresses that needed to be updated in our voter file (VAN). Volunteers who canvass this fall will benefit from that as well (not to mention the campaigns, who will make more effective use of their volunteer’s time).
Arizona began the year as a top target for Republicans. There has been this strange belief, often tied to the profound disappointment of losing the state in the Electoral College, that Mark Kelly was vulnerable. Somehow, it seems to have been forgotten that Kelly was the top vote-getter in Arizona, besting even Biden by tens of thousands of votes. And then there is his fundraising, “dwarfing his GOP challengers.” Blake Masters has been heavily dependent upon Peter Thiel, who is thought to have “wound down” his financial involvement: “He's not putting any more money into any more races or getting involved in new races.” I’d think it’s hard to believe he’s going to let JD Vance and Blake Masters fall to their Democratic opponents, but.
This week, I’ve been talking a lot about AdImpact’s blog on media pre-books and what they say about the Fall campaign. It’s interesting, of course, as I see Deadline: White House is doing the same thing, although not based on media buys. But it is becoming more obvious that this Fall is going to be exciting and we are in the fight! Each state is different (of course), but Arizona really stands out in that regard. Note the graphic to the right. It tells us that Arizona has (really, had, but you will see this in a moment) $113.66M in media advertising “pre-booked.” But because Arizona’s primary was so late (in terms of this report), most of that pre-booking on the part of Republicans was for the primary, not the Fall. So it appears that Republicans will be able to compete with Democrats, in this regard and the truth is, we just don’t know that.
This graphic makes it all the more clear. Mark Kelly has the second-most reservations for media advertising time, locking in less expensive buys (commercials become more expensive as the Fall closes in). $12M for Mark Kelly media advertising booked — as opposed to $1.5 Cash on Hand for Blake Masters in his last, pre-primary report. Kelly’s pre-primary report showed he had $24,788,708 COH. That’s not an insignificant advantage. For Masters, though, it just got worse. I noted above that Thiel was supposedly “winding down” his involvement after spending $30M in the Ohio and Arizona primaries. “The National Republican Senatorial Committee is canceling millions of dollars of ad spending” as well. Take another look at the top graphic and then subtract $3.5 million from Arizona — the NRSC cancelled “pre-books.”
Wait, it gets worse for Republicans. Arizona, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are the only states in the graphic to the left that booked more in the primaries than the generals. Now there is a reason that this is so: all three have late primaries and it is possible that these numbers merely reflect the Democrat’s head start (so to speak). But these primaries were really supposed to be coronations, because this was supposed to be a Republican year. And things are looking a lot different in late summer than they appeared in late spring. $24,788,708 is a lot of money to have on Hand in Arizona.
I tell you this because there is a lot at stake in Arizona this Fall. Yes, things are looking up for Mark Kelly but there isn’t a single Democrat who doesn’t think that the Gubernatorial and Secretary of State elections (among others) aren’t really important, too. This election isn’t over and we have to finish the job. “Run through the tape” one of our volunteers said.
302 volunteers came out to knock on doors with Hope Springs from Field PAC in the western suburbs of Phoenix (yes, we were back up in Phoenix) and Tucson on Saturday.
Like prior weeks, we had to modify our canvassing routine, which means we started earlier, knocked far fewer doors than we otherwise would have and used drivers to protect our volunteer canvassers. We want a driver/supervisor to have eyes on each volunteer every 20-30 minutes or so. And when volunteers get too hot, they jump into the vehicle and join the watch on the other members of the team. We also know to cut turf in smaller segments than we would in the fall or spring. But a Heat Wave is a heat wave, which is why I am so appreciative for those who do come out, especially in that temperature.
But I do want to emphasize that there are repeated opportunities to cool off for volunteers knocking on doors, and to do some paperwork in an air-conditioned vehicle. With lots of cold water, baby wipes, cooling towels and an air-conditioned vehicle, our canvassers are safe, looked-after and don't look haggard when they knock on doors. We also suggest that people bring a change of shirts and I even have drivers that create "privacy environments" in their SUVs for changing into dryer clothes. Again, it really makes our volunteers feel valued. Volunteers are golden. Volunteers are everything.
We asked voters who open their doors if they were registered to vote at their current address. And we note that one of the benefits for those who are not currently registered at their current address is that the new Arizona voter registration form allows you to sign up for the Active Early Voting List to receive their early ballot by mail. This does encourage voters to update their voter registrations. It’s the little things — but it’s not valid for today’s election!
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. It makes it easy on our volunteers as provides us with vital data that will be entered in VAN (the Democratic database) after the primary. But this is why our very first priority in these Senate Swing State canvasses is making sure that everyone in the houses that opened their doors is registered to vote at their current address.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. This week, Inflation was the top issue we heard from voters in Arizona. The Economy was the second most frequent response mentioned by voters we talked to on Saturday (and comments about a technical recession are growing). Education was the third most mentioned issue. We still hear a lot additional comments about Reproductive Rights and Gun Violence in the “single issue” or message to Congress query.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters, which means we haven’t seen responses from anyone who admits to being a Republican. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. By our work and our presence we are trying to convey that Democrats care and we listen. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
Support (measured as job approval) for President Biden continued to be 57% from the voters we talked to on Saturday. Disapproval dipped to 9%. Support for Senator Kelly have also been rising; this week they were at 79%. So while Senator Kelly is still “polling” (remember, this isn’t anything like a real poll — we don’t knock on doors of GOP households) well above President Biden, there’s been a nice uptick for both Democrats among the voters we have talked to.
We registered 3 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 44 voters.
We also ask voters who open their doors whether they want to fill out a Constituent Service Request form. This week, we collected 68 CSRs in Arizona. Constituent Service Requests are handed over to (hopefully Democratic) office holders with responsibilities for the area of the request. Q-slips will be sent directly to the campaigns of Democratic candidates. Comments from Observation Forms are entered into VAN, as well.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!