Cuba has three main exports: sugar (as rum); tobacco (cigars) and people. When the Soviet Union fell, it lost its source of free oil. Over the years the island had become dependent on it for all its fuel needs, including generating electricity. To substitute it turned to Venezula and exchanged the services of their highly educated workforce to provide healthcare.
The country is now facing two crises: Venezula is facing reduced output due to US sanctions and a fire has destroyed a large part of the crude oil storage at the country’s main port in Matanzas province. The refining capacity is still available but without the storage, only limited supplies can be off-loaded. Other ports are not suitable for supertankers so smaller ships have to be used. There are daily rolling electricity black-outs for several hours each time. This is making manufacturing and food distribution difficult and the price of oil for generators is now prohibitive.
In addition to the humanitarian reasons, there are good reasons for the US to offer a “helping hand” to improve relations with the Cuban regimen. For a start, the current situation is likely to lead to a significant increase in often extremely risky migration to the US. But there is a far bigger geo-political reason to do so.
While Russia has sent a tanker full of oil as humanitarian aid, that is not going to continue — not because the Russians do not have enough oil but because of the cost of transporting it. The invasion of Ukraine has shown Russia to be a stuffed bear on the set of a horror movie. Even with compulsory national service (although more easily avoidable for ethnic Rus), it is going to have problems bringing the army up to its pre-war strength, let alone the increase proposed by Putin. It’s economy is tanking with lack of vital parts to build new vehicles and service planes; Russian airlines are already cannibalising new planes for spare parts. Russia is burning off $10million a day’s worth of gas rather than supply Europe. In turn the EU is preparing for a hard winter while alternatives come on stream. Germany needs to build gasification plants for imported liquid natural gas. In the end, all Putin will achieve is acceleration of the move to renewables and changing the sources of EU power. The Ukrainians using existing and NATO weapons have also shown up the deficiencies in Russian military equipment. The repeated videos of “turret tosses” cannot do much for their sales of tanks. The Russian soldiers sit on top of their armored personnel carriers because they do not protect them from mines. Their anti-aircraft systems are being wiped out by HARMS missiles and the Ukrainians have recently been given anti-drone systems. At the end of the day, Russia will need many years to build up its armaments. Continuing the sanctions on selling them high-tech production equipment like that necessary to make computer chips will hobble that process. (That has been one of the most useful sanctions and has been in place since 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.)
Whatever the internal politics, Russia is going to be a minor player in geopolitical terms for many years. The Cubans are looking for new partners to help in the immediate and longer term. Their food supply system needs modernisation to help feed the cities for example. They have appealed for help from “like minded” countries, i.e. socialist or vaguely communist. China of course fits the bill and is only too pleased to help in these circumstances in exchange for a lease to build a military base. That might not go down too well in Washington, to have a potential opponent with a base within 2-300Km of mainland USA.
There does seem to be an opportunity for the USA to step in and initially help with the fuel crisis, including perhaps hooking up shipboard generators to their grid. This would open a door to more negotiations to relax restrictions and normalise relations between the two countries. Another country that had the audacity to install a non-CIA approved government is Venezuela. That country happens to be a producer of oil which is a bit of short supply at the moment. US sanctions have meant output has run down but I gather there have already been feelers from the State Department. If so, this would be a good strategic move to at least lift sanctions there. Re-establishing relations would at least reduce the effect of Chinese expansionism. In the end the carrot of aid may be a lot more effective than the stick of sanctions.
