When we returned to Nevada in the spring, there was a lot of consternation about how a totally grassroots effort in voter contact would be regarded. We quickly found out that voters weren’t really following the machinations of the power struggle there. Instead, they thanked us for showing up. Demonstrating that Democrats were out there, talking to voters, listening — Doing Something. And here’s the thing that seems to unite all 8 Senate Swing States where we have canvassed: they all are looking for Democrats who will address voter’s issues, problems and needs. And we are sensing a divide in Nevada, just not the one we expected.
“Have you seen the Laxalt “Succession” Ad? (some people called it the “Charmed Life” ad)” “OMG!” When you look at the bump to you right, you might ask yourself, “when did this ad start airing?” And you’d be right, it correlates with the airing of the ad. Same as it ever was.
We are told that this race, between a relatively lesser known incumbent Senator and a high flying D.C. lobbyist, is set to be “one of the most competitive — and expensive” Senate races in 2022. It is certainly starting off that way. But it is rare for canvassers — especially volunteer door-knockers — to hear about a TV ad that just started airing. Even more rare for voters to talk about them excitedly. But once in a lifetime.
We arm our volunteers with Observation Forms and Q(uestion)-slips and while not every volunteer uses them, some like to record what they see and hear that they don’t correspond to what they are asking in the Issues Questionnaire. And what volunteers are telling organizers is that the voters they have been talking to are getting excited about November. “IF the ads are this entertaining, I might actually watch them.” Once in a lifetime, water flowing.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in Nevada since April 23rd. We have knocked on 241,250 doors with 3,430 volunteers who spent their Saturdays talking to other voters in the Reno and Las Vegas area. And nothing impressed them through that time as Cortez Masto’s “Succession” ad. I mean, who remembers a TV ad? Or wants to talk about it? More to the point, who wants to talk about a TV ad rather than complaining about something? Once in a life time.
The fact is that everyone seems to think this is going to be a close race. And there are several factors the lend themselves to that conclusion. Las Vegas is the 40th largest media market, and Reno is 104th, but there’s $155M of political ad spending staring down at Nevada (number one in pre-bookings). And voters are talking about a tv ad.
I’ve mentioned before that I have the practice of contacting (iow, talking to) 10 organizers, 10 volunteers and 10 voters each week. I’ve done this for awhile, but basically it grew out of what I asked my candidates to do: call 10 local business owners, 10 volunteers and 10 voters each week. It sounds corny, but it is a way for politicians to stay grounded and to escape the social media universe that demands so much of our attention. 2 of my 10 volunteers I spoke to this week were in Nevada, because I wanted to make sense of these Observation Forms that organizers had scanned and sent me. And these volunteers told me Sen. Cortez Masto had struck a nerve.
361 volunteers came out on Saturday to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC, knocking on doors in the Reno Suburbs and west of Las Vegas. It was a bit down from the previous weekend, but our turnout in Nevada has always been fits and starts. The weather was pleasant enough that everyone knocked this week. Our goal this week was to get every one back before the temperatures went above 92. Which we did, but our main concern is that volunteers feel safe and protected. Which they tell me they do.
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. It makes it easy on our volunteers as provides us with vital data that will be entered in VAN (the Democratic database) after the primary. I can’t tell you how much our volunteers like this technique and how much *they* learn from knocking on doors.
We ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. This week’s responses to our query about the Most Urgent Issue was identical to last week’s (and the week before). Jobs was the Top Issue in Nevada according to the voters we talked to on Saturday. Schools seemed to be on everyone’s mind and was the second highest concern. Concern about Fair Elections was third among the Nevada voters we talked to this week. Like other states, we still hear about Reproductive Rights and Gun Violence in the “single issue” or message to Congress query.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to increase awareness of the fact that Democrats care about our voters and are working to protect their rights, and, in March, we will begin an even bigger effort. We are thinking about how to mitigate Voter Suppression efforts, get around them and make sure we have "super compliance," both informing and helping our voters meet the requirements and get out and vote. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC was started by former Obama Field Organizers because field was the cornerstone of our success. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans did). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
This week, voter views of President Biden remained steady: 57% of the voters we talked to in Nevada last Saturday had a favorable view. 7% expressed disapproval in the job the president was doing and voters have been pretty clear why. I try not to read too much into the statistics we see each week but Nevada is the only state where Biden keeps doing better than the Democratic candidates.
53% of the voters, Democrats and independents, had a favorable impression of Senator Cortez Masto. 8% told us they had an unfavorable of the senator. So here’s the thing. If Cortez Masto is making waves on television why are here approval numbers sticking down there? Granted, the ad we are talking about is by definition an attack ad, so it is more about Laxalt than Cortez Masto, but this remains a concern.
56% of the voters who responded gave Governor Sisolak a favorable rating. 7% said they had an unfavorable impression.
Cortez Masto has been using the weeks since the Dobbs decision to warn that Laxalt and a GOP Senate Majority would lead to a national abortion ban. One of the questions we ask on the Issues Survey is “if there is a single issue that will determine how you vote, what is it?” In Nevada, 27% of the voters who answered in the affirmative told us that their single issue this year is Reproductive Freedom. Week in and week out, regardless of what they told us was the most important issue facing the country, they identified Reproductive Rights as the single issue that would determine how they vote in November. Some of them even told us they hadn’t “really” decided if they’d vote this Fall until the Dobbs decision “made everything real.” In Nevada, this was the top response to the single issue question.
We talked to 1,960 voters on Saturday. We registered 12 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 47 voters.
We also ask voters if they have any local infrastructure issues they would tell local elected officials about. We ask those who do if they wanted to fill out Constituent Service Request forms. 89 voters raised some area that they wanted addressed. If possible, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We specifically ask voters in the Issues Survey if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Voters who tell us they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. We found 3 voters who wanted to fill out an Incident Report on Saturday. We collate these Incident Reports, to be shared with local, state and federal officials in charge of voting, as well as use them to plan out our Election Protection strategy in the fall. They could also be used in court cases.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. Far and away the number one issue that the voters we talked to in the Senate Swing States last year was inflation or price increases, and I imagine that concern has only increased.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with Nevada’s voting laws, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine the Republican strategy of shaping the electorate.
Several professional fundraisers have told me my reports are too cheery, that if I want to raise money I need to be more scary. Maybe that is true, but Hope Springs from Field’s origins are more grassroots. If this work needs to be supported, then it will be funded. So if you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!