U.S. Senate and House race ratings are as fluid as flash floods after a hurricane, and the flow appears to be going in the Democrats’ direction. Maybe flow is too optimistic. Trickle or dribble might be more appropriate.
The Cook Political Report just recently upgraded races in Arizona and Texas in favor of Democratic candidates. Sen. Mark Kelly’s race has been changed to Lean D from Tossup. U.S. House ratings in AZ-01 (Jevin Hodge) and AZ-02 (Tom O’Halleran). as Cook also shifted TX-28 to favor the Democratic candidate, Vicente Gonzalez Jr.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball in mid-September changed Rep. Chris Pappas’ 1st New Hampshire district to Lean D. Sabato also noted that Sen. Maggie Hassan is likely to have an easier time since NH primary voters selected an election-denier who rejoiced when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
A recent analysis of Nate Silver’s 538 says Democrats are favored to win the Senate. The Wisconsin open Senate seat race remains a Tossup, but in the most recent polls (can we trust polls?), Mandela Barnes leads 48.7 percent compared to 47.5 percent for the infamous Ron Johnson. In the House, the 538 forecast is improving for Democrats, but still the Republicans are favored to win there.
Republicans Stumbling
The news cycle daily features stories that are strengthening Democrats’ and weakening Republicans’ chances.
Pennsylvania Democrats are capitalizing on the latest stumble by Dr. Mehmet Oz. He released his doctor’s medical assessment after a newspaper pushed John Fetterman into doing so. But, as reported in The Daily Kos, when it turned out his primary care physician is based on Fifth Avenue along Central Park, Manhattan, the proverbial spit hit the fan.
Fetterman’s statement read: “Today Dr. Oz confirmed that he does not actually live in Pennsylvania, because no one who does would have a primary care doctor on 5th Avenue in Manhattan.” The Senate race was already upgraded to Lean D in late August.
U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-08) got a boost when the Associated Press wrote that her opponent lied about his military service, claiming he served in Afghanistan. "The NRCC on Thursday canceled the entire $960,000 ad buy it had booked in Ohio’s 9th District to defeat Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur,” said a Daily Kos article.
The number of negative stories related to Georgia’s Herschel Walker (the latest being his company NOT contributing to non-profits as he claims) it’s hard to know what will finally push more voters to abandon him. It’s hard to fathom why Sen. Raphael Warnock is still in such a close battle.
What’s Next?
The sticking point is: Only 42 days remain until Election Day. And progress is slow, one point at a time. Is there enough time left to keep both the Senate and the House? Will the missteps of the Republican Party and the widespread support for reproductive rights be enough to swing it?
And how to keep track of what races are close and worth helping? You can do that in a Key Races chart prepared and updated by Together We Elect’s strategic analysis team. The chart shows districts where support can really make a difference. You can access the chart here. Then check out the calendar to find actions to help those candidates and districts even if you are out of state.
