Conscription offices have been set on fire and several staff have been shot in Russia’s “partial mobilization”. Ukraine has been under full mobilization since the beginning. There will be more domestic unrest. And there will be NAFO.
Like so much else in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s senseless and vicious assault on Ukraine, his attempt to mobilize Russian men to fight has turned into a debacle. After months of preserving relative calm about the war among the Russian public — through a combination of propaganda, lies, censorship and harsh punishment of criticism and dissent — Mr. Putin has broken the quiet himself. Thousands of Russian men are running for the exits. Mr. Putin had
announced a “partial mobilization,” saying that “only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.” But in recent days, the call-up has grabbed men with
no prior military service, including some who are too old or physically incapable of going to war. Moreover, the
burden is falling more heavily on small towns and villages and among ethnic minorities.
Outright protest — and chaos — erupted. In the Irkutsk region, a young man shot the chief recruitment officer at a military enlistment station. In Omsk, social media video showed, fighting broke out between drafted men and the police officers forcing them onto buses. The draftees called on the police to die with them in the trenches. Arson attacks have hit recruitment offices in 16 regions since Mr. Putin’s announcement last Wednesday, nearly twice as many incidents since the Russian president launched the invasion in February. Since the call-up announcement, more than 2,300 people have been arrested for protesting. A traffic jam of 2,300 vehicles backed up at the border crossing between Russia and Georgia as men fled the draft, while many others walked and thousands more fled through Finland and other routes. Almost all flights out have been booked for days.
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Click here to see #ISW interactive map: arcg.is/09O0OS
Part of the reason Ukraine is facing stiff resistance in the south is because of its highly effective information campaign about the counteroffensive. The signals it sent were so convincing that the Russians hastily redeployed tanks, artillery and thousands of troops, including some of their better trained units, from the northeast to the south.
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The battle for the critical Donbas region in Ukraine’s east is now centered on these two strategically important cities, Bakhmut and Lyman; the fighting is fierce as both armies race to claim new ground before winter sets in.
In the broader war, momentum remains with the Ukrainians, whose sweeping victories in the country’s northeast this month exposed ineptitude and glaring weaknesses in the Russian force. But the Donbas, which President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia considers his primary prize, is a different, more entrenched fight.
Ukraine is pushing hard to reclaim Lyman, a railway juncture that serves as an important supply hub on the western edge of the Donbas. Russian forces control the city, but Ukraine is hoping to use it as a gateway to push farther east and maintain its momentum.
Bakhmut is an entry point to part of the region still held by Ukrainian forces. Capturing it would also give Russia a win after being routed in humiliating fashion in the north. The Russians have been shelling Bakhmut incessantly for the past three months.
The fight for Bakhmut and Lyman comes down to strategic positioning for both sides before the front lines stagnate in the cold weather. If the cities are under Ukrainian control, Kyiv’s forces will be prepared to claw back lost territory in the coming months. Under Russian occupation, and with reinforcements, they will help Russia put Donbas’s two major cities — Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — under increasing threat and more frequent shelling.
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