The betting odds and most polls favor the two-time vote loser over Ron “Death to Dems” DeSantis in 2024. But that assumes Trump makes it to the starting line and that the situation remains the same in 16 months.
The most significant issue in Trump’s future is his legal situation. Constitutionally, financial and election crimes are no bar to his running for President. However, some suggest that one obscure criminal law, Section 2071 of Title 18 of the United States Code, may bar him from the campaign.
This law states that anyone with custody of government documents who "willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates or destroys… any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited … in any public office" can be fined or imprisoned for up to three years. And that anyone convicted under that law shall "be disqualified from holding" federal office.
However, Trump would undoubtedly appeal that law to the Supreme Court, which would likely decide that it is constitutionally impermissible. So for the sake of argument, let us say Trump will have no legal bar to running. Would criminal convictions turn off the base?
I suspect it would be quite the opposite. America's biggest crybaby would have a gold mine of new whines to entertain the crowds at his pity-fests, aka rallies. You can see the PR now. “American hero attacked by the Deep State and out of control, politically-motivated prosecutors in cahoots with unelected, unAmerican judges.” It is the kind of bullshit that is manna to his MAGA mob.
Even if he were convicted and sentenced to prison, the appeals would leave him a free man until the primary season. I feel confident that Trump’s paid-for SCOTUS would stay any sentence until he completed his term — should he be elected. Or even if he is just a declared candidate. And I bet that should a trial occur and the jury got the case, he would announce his candidacy before it rendered its decision.
Considering this, it is safe to say that his criminality would not keep Trump out of office. The only way to stop him would be to beat him in the primaries or the general election. I cannot begin to speculate about what will happen in the general. We do not even know who the Democrat candidate or their running mate will be.
Biden has gone from ‘of course’ to ‘we’ll see.’
And Harris, who Biden gave the impossible portfolio of promoting the administration's voting-rights efforts and solving the refugee crisis on the southern border, may well become a sacrificial lamb. Or just too damaged to run if Biden opts not to. On the other hand, she is a tough and smart politician and the primaries are a great time to create a victorious narrative. Look at Trump. He convinced the base that repeatedly going bankrupt was a sign of fiscal genius.
So, let us look at the GOP side of the race. Trump’s main competition is Ron DeSantis, a sociopathic shark — with the personality of paper — and a willingness to do whatever it takes. Trump will no doubt use the strategy of insult and belittlement that served him so well in 2016. However, he will no longer have the advantage of novelty. DeSantis has seen the act and will not be blindsided as his predecessor as Florida Governor, Jeb Bush, was.
Desantis will also have the advantage over any of the other 2016 candidates who choose to run. He has not lost to Trump. Most of that sorry lot — notably Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio — not only lost but ended up kissing the winner's ring. And Trump enjoys nothing more than rubbing people’s craven toadying in their faces. Just ask J.D. Vance. Trump told the Ohioan crowd at his rally promoting the hillbilly candidacy that Vance is “in love” with him and “kissing my ass” for support. Before likening the GOP candidate’s change of heart toward him to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s volte-face.
DeSantis, who probably owes his governorship to Trump — he was trailing badly in the 2018 GOP primary before Trump anointed him — has been notable low key in showing his appreciation to his benefactor. His only acknowledgment of the assist was a pro forma thanks in his victory speech. This has pissed Trump off. And an angry Trump is a weaker candidate than a smug one.
Don has made his feelings about Ron’s lack of gratitude plain. He has told the poor people who have to listen to his ceaseless complaints that DeSantis is “overrated, disloyal, and a know-nothing” Proving again that there is no more potent force in conservatism than projection.
DeSantis's opinion of Trump is equally dismissive. In private, he has told people that the former reality star is “a TV personality and a moron who has no business running for president.” This, of course, is quite accurate.
By dint of his attacks on all things Democratic, the LGBTQ+ community, minorities, and medical commonsense, DeSantis has endeared himself to the base. More tellingly, he has replaced Trump as Ruppert Murdoch’s favorite Republican. And he is now a far greater presence on Fox TV. Even Trump’s unofficial Chief of Staff and biggest media proponent, Sean Hannity, seems to be wobbling on whether the ex-Pres is sane. His reaction to Trump's claim the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago to recover Hillary’s emails is best described as incredulous.
And Trump’s support is starting to fracture. More than half of the Republicans in an NYT/Siena poll said they preferred someone other than Trump in 2024. And his support was strongest among elderly ill-educated conservatives — some of whom will not be around in a year. Another poll shows that DeSantis has overtaken Trump in Florida. And there is plenty of reason to believe that, as DeSantis starts his national coming-out tour, he will see his numbers improve in other states.
DeSantis has also proved to be a canny politician. He has kept relatively quiet about abortion - Florida still generally permits it for up to 15 weeks. Ande has said nice things about Biden during the Hurricane Ian saga. Neither will bolster him with the base. But they will make him more appealing — or at least less toxic — in the general election.
All of this is good news for DeSantis, especially as the other GOP contenders are seeing little interest in their potential bids.
However, do not discount the dark horse. Who saw the rise of Obama? Who had heard of Bill Clinton in 1990? On the flip side, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson looked good in 2008. But they made little impression. I do not suggest that DeSantis is likely to disappear. Unlike those two dilettantes who thought name recognition was their golden ticket, DeSantis is a driven politician with his eye on the prize.
However, DeSantis has yet to feel the intense glare of a Presidential campaign. And he has not gone head to head with Trump. He thinks he will do well by attacking TFG’s failure to build his wall, cancel Obamacare, and fire Fauci. Perhaps he will succeed, but others have tried — 16 in 2016 — and they hardly bloodied the guy.
So who knows?