Not the American war… the French one that took place in the same part of the world as the current Russian invasion of Ukraine and led by that obscure historical figure Napoleon Bonaparte.
What was an army of 500,000 men withered to only 5000 by the end of the campaign.
Napoleon‘s strength was his ability to charge other strong armies head on, smashing up against forces in large scale battles and winning with better tactics.
Russia knew this and knew they would lose and lose badly if they attempted the same strategy that failed many armies much more powerful than their own.
So what did they do instead?
They said ‘F*ck it’ and went full scorched earth, against themselves, taking all supplies and food from and burning down all the farms and towns and cities of western Russia to create a desolate wasteland almost indistinguishable from hell.
At the far end of this wasteland, Russia would take up scattered defensive positions and aim to gradually pick off the invading troops one by one, little by little guerilla warfare style. Much like how Americans successfully defeated the British.
Where Napoleon’s forces were successful, Russia would just fall back to new defensive positions.
Eventually Napoleon was running out of food and as winter set in, just staying on the occupied territory meant certain death for his army. Whether they took a bullet or not.
Being wildly under equipped for extended cold weather warfare from having expected to quickly defeat Russia and commandeer their resources, continuing to fight became a death sentence and the only move left was to try to make it back home alive.
Back across that same desolate wasteland except this time in sub-zero temperatures while being followed and picked off from the still surrounding Russian soldiers you have little will or strength or frankly ability to defend against.
Organized and competent guerilla warfare has always been the best strategy to defeat a more powerful arrogant army. It works like a damn charm.
Even the US Military, while better at this than any military in history, struggles mightily in door-to-door urban combat against guerilla forces as we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If any of the above sounded familiar, it’s because that’s exactly what Ukraine has been, is and will follow through with doing.
The supreme irony is that today it is Russia itself who will get to experience the same fate they inflicted upon Napoleon’s grand army more than 200 years before.
Russia may theoretically be “better equipped” than Napoleon’s army was for cold weather warfare but practically speaking, Russia clearly never expected nor planned to battle into winter.
And now their army is entrenched in Ukrainian territory with their logistics in shambles as the cold begins creeping in.
Even if Russia had 100k winter coats, hats, gloves, thick socks and boots just laying around. And even if that stockpile was high quality enough to actually protect soldiers from intense cold on the battlefield. They now have limited to no capacity to get these supplies to their soldiers.
All that extensively warn down and outdated battle equipment? It ain’t gonna start performing any better in extreme cold.
As Russian logistics spirals into oblivion, food will also become increasingly scarce.
Eventually you have an entire army on its knees suffering from starvation and frostbite.
Not even the warmth from fresh HIMARS strikes will be enough to abate the constant ache of cold.
This necessarily leads to rapidly degrading mental health as well eventually incapacitating the army who realizes, after seeing scores of comrades suffering more from cold and starvation rather than bombs or bullets, that the only options are curl up and die, go back home and probably die along the way or surrender and live.
It’s merely a waiting game for Ukraine who has been playing some kind of advanced guerilla defense against Russia and who has already turned the tide of war back the other way.
Why risk a full scale assault and send thousands of Ukrainian troops to certain death when you know Winter is coming and you have fire control over logistics centers for most the occupying force?
The cold and starvation are Ukraine’s most powerful ally at this moment. More valuable and powerful in its own unique way than any equipment they’ve yet to receive.
The cold is Ukraine’s weaponization of weather to fell or capture entire battalions of the enemy with minimal resistance.
The more Ukraine clamps the vice before cold sets in, the faster will be Russian capitulation during Winter.
Without a doubt Ukraine has learned from and most probably had troops training with Finnish forces (the other countries mentioned being Sweden and Canada, two other world renowned cold weather warfare experts and Britain who’s not too shabby themselves), the most fearsome cold weather warriors on the planet. Who also used weather as a very valuable ally to defend against an overpowering Russian invasion as well.
Ukraine further has been anticipating cold weather warfare since 2014 because it was clear that any future invasion from Russia, if they were to survive it, would at least last through one Winter.
Ukraine must be deeply prepared for cold weather warfare at this point, especially with such an extensive network of cold weather allies who can readily transfer supplies where needed, while Russians are stuck with their already low quality spring gear that is now in rags and an unknown amount of Winter gear that they may not be able to get to their forces even if they do have it.
Zelensky sees this as the best opportunity for Ukraine to land a knockout blow and reclaim all of Ukraine for if Russia is still holding on past Winter, they would likely be required to fully mobilize for another 9 months of fair weather battling and just enough force strength to at least hold a limited area of captured territory and save face for another day.
Territory that would then be exceedingly difficult to ever get back. Zelensky can’t allow losing even an inch of Ukrainian territory and that means this Winter is his best shot to entirely remove the invading force while they’re at their weakest point.
Winter is coming Russia. Your forces are not prepared for what’s in store.