Ukraine has for weeks been telling residents in its occupied south to be ready and to evacuate before it launches a counter-offensive. Still, Monday's warning was notable because it was addressed to residents of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, in contrast to areas captured by Russia during this year's invasion.
The Black Sea peninsula is thought to be out of range of Ukrainian weapons, though several recent explosions at Russian military sites in Crimea have called that into question. Kyiv has declined to claim responsibility for the incidents.
Some military experts have suggested the counter-offensive aims not to smash through and drive deep behind Russian lines, but rather to accelerate attrition while strangling the supply lines sustaining occupying troops on the west bank of the Dnieper river, which bisects Kherson Oblast. In the latter scenario, success will be more gradual.
Regardless of the outcome around Kherson, the fighting looks set to continue into 2023. Peace talks—considered futile by many from the start—have broken down entirely. Leaders in Kyiv say there can be no peace without full Russian withdrawal, and have vowed to retake the heavily-militarized Crimea peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Fall and winter will be hard for both sides, as heavy rains and mud precede freezing end-of-year temperatures.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces are continuing to make unspecified advances in Kherson Oblast and are exhausting Russian troops and logistics as part of the counteroffensive on September 4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that “Ukrainian flags are returning to those places where they rightfully belong” and noted that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed villages in southern Ukraine.[9] Ukrainian officials and social media users published footage of Ukrainian forces raising a Ukrainian flag in Vysokopillya, south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.[10] Russian milbloggers noted that Russian forces withdrew from Vysokopillya to avoid encirclement from the Olhyne and Potomkyne directions (west and east of Vysokopillya, respectively).[11] Some milbloggers noted that a lack of Russian aviation in the area (diverted, they say, to the fight around the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River) allowed for Ukrainian advances to Vysokopillya.[12]
Ukrainian officials did not name the second liberated settlement area. Kherson Oblast Administration Head Yaroslav Yanushevich reported that Russian forces shelled Olhyne, Potomkyne, Doryanka, and Novovoznesenske (southeast of Vysokopillya), while some milbloggers claimed that elements of Russian airborne forces also withdrew from Novovoznesenske, which may indicate a Ukrainian advance in the area.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched airstrikes at Lyubomyrivka (approximately 28km north of Kherson City), and Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces left the settlement.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported Russian airstrikes on Sukhy Stavok, Bezimenne and Kostromka, and other settlements around the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, which may indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 12km southeast of the bridgehead.[15] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are firing artillery at Kostromka and Sukhy Stavok, where battles continued throughout the day.[16] Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Gumenyuk noted that Ukrainian forces are advancing and liberating settlements, but Russian forces are continuing to shell newly-established Ukrainian positions from afar.[17]
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that servicemen of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps refused to fight, citing a lack of supplies such as water.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian counterintelligence representatives are dealing with the 127th regiment and that its fate is unknown.[19] Russian forces formed the 127th Regiment of forcefully mobilized personnel in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in early April, alongside four other DNR regiments: the 103rd, 109th, 113th, and 125th.[20] ISW previously reported that the DNR redeployed the 109th, 113th, and 125th Regiments to northwestern Kherson Oblast in late July, and the 109th regiment reportedly surrendered on the first day of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[21] It is likely that Russian forces are reinforcing their frontline positions with inexperienced and forcefully mobilized elements that lack the will to fight.[22]
Gumenyuk noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy is to exhaust Russian forces and added that Ukrainian forces have enough resources and forces to restrain Russian combat power in southern Ukraine.[23] Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and key positions to support Ukrainian ground counteroffensive efforts. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian missile and artillery units struck a Russian ferry crossing in Beryslav (north of Nova Kakhovka), and social media users published footage of Ukrainian forces striking a segment of the Antonivsky Road Bridge on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[24] Ukrainian attacks on ferry crossings are likely in direct support of ongoing counteroffensive operations, as the disruptions generated by such strikes are more ephemeral than those caused by attacks on bridges. Continuing strikes on the bridges, on the other hand, are indicators of a long-term effort to prevent Russian forces from reestablishing GLOCs before the conclusion of the liberation of western Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian military officials noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bashtanka Raion, and confirmed the destruction of a Russian ammunition depot in Oleshky (approximately nine kilometers south of Kherson City) that occurred on September 2.[25]
Social media footage also showed that Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian targets across central Kherson Oblast on September 3 and 4. Ukrainian social media footage showed a large smoke plume in Kozatske (on the right bank of the Dnipro River near Nova Kakhovka), where Ukrainian officials previously reported destroying a Russian pontoon crossing on September 3.[26] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to intercept Ukrainian HIMARS, HARM, and Olkha rounds in Nova Kakhovka and over the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant, and Ukrainian social media users reported hearing explosions in Nova Kakhovka.[27]
Russian milbloggers claimed that battles continued in five directions: east and west of Vysokopillya, near the Ukrainian bridgehead, near Snihurivka approximately 60km east of Mykolaiv City, and northwest and west of Kherson City on September 4. Milblogger accounts remain largely unverifiable as Ukrainian officials have not announced additional advances outside of those mentioned above.
Milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces were unsuccessful in advancing in the Petrivka direction, southeast of Vysokopillya.[28] Milbloggers claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in street fights in Arhanhelske (on the eastern bank of Inhulets River and west of Vysokopillya), and that Russian forces still control the southern part of the settlement.[29] Milbloggers also stated that fighting continued on the southern outskirts of Olhyne, the next settlement west of Vysokopillya.[30] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian advances southeast of the bridgehead are contingent upon their ability to accumulate more reserves and noted that Russian forces are intensely firing at Ukrainian forces in the Andriivka area.[31] Milbloggers noted that Ukrainian attempts to seize Blahodatne (west of Snihurivka) were unsuccessful and that artillery fire continues in the Snihurivka area.[32] Milbloggers noted that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in positional battles in Posad-Pokrovske, following a Ukrainian unsuccessful attempt to conduct a counteroffensive in the area.[33] Positional battles reportedly continued in Oleksandrivka (35km west of Kherson City), and milbloggers published footage of abandoned Ukrainian military equipment in the area.[34] Satellite imagery showed Russian second and third lines of defenses in Kyselivka (approximately 18km northwest of Kherson City).[35] The satellite imagery also showed that Russian forces dug the trenches at the end of May and extended them in late August. Russian forces have extensive defenses around Kherson City International Airport in Chornobaivka. Geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking advancing Ukrainian forces south of Tavriiske (approximately 38km northwest of Kherson City).[36]
The Ukrainian liberation of Vysokopillya ignited some critical discussions among Russian milbloggers, whereas the Russian Defense Ministry maintained that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct “unsuccessful attempts” to advance in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih direction.[37] The Russian Defense Ministry changed its day-to-day recap of the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive from declaring total Ukrainian defeat on August 29, to claiming high Ukrainian losses among personnel and military equipment.[38] Milbloggers largely presented Ukrainian advances in northern Kherson Oblast as a “massacre of Kherson Oblast” due to claimed large losses among Ukrainian troops.[39] Some milbloggers noted that Ukrainian forces conducted a correct counteroffensive around Vysokopillya, and noted that Russian forces lost a tactically significant settlement.[40] This is the first occasion on which some milbloggers have broken with the Kremlin’s optimism about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and recognized Russian setbacks.
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