Kind of interesting that General McCaffery and Hertling really think the same.
The difference is, really, McCaffery — a cautious fellow — thinks it could take months and is a real possibility , Hertling thinks weeks and more certain. RU either “possibly” gets 15,000 soldiers trapped there (McCaffery) — Hertling thinks it is a probability and in weeks, not months, and thinks it could be as low as 10,000 and high as 25,000 in that little cauldron. Pretty small difference in the scheme of things, really. Those soldiers are near trapped — logistics cut off or down to a dribble— retreat basically cut off and backs to the river. And they don’t want to be there to begin with — sure won’t see any heroic stand here. As in they are fucked.
Let me quote Hertling (and there is sure more)-
“Any good military leader will tell you this indicates:-extremely poor soldier discipline & horrible fieldcraft/training-extremely bad lower level leadership-senior leaders who aren’t circulating-lack of standards-low morale-the potential for disease-future surrender.”
This is a little cocky today huh —
I really think RU guns are about toast here and they are about out of ammunition. That it is about to be “drastic” vision Pavel Luzin made about those guns being completely fucked and out of ammunition by year end — has already started. Jesus, I think they danced themselves into a noose.
You know those Russian “precision” weapons — miss 60% of the time! Not so precise, huh? And they are running out of them. Just amazingly bad. Ukraine has and is dancing circles around them. I know our intelligence is helping them — but I think they don’t need us for that very much. And by the way — what else did we really give Ukraine?
There is a lot of shit out there about this ”lack of bravery” from the Russians in this blow back — but this one is pretty representative I think. You know abandoning their guns and all is one thing — but they are even abandoning their personal stuff, too. They are freaked out about what UKR has in mind here — so certain to me. Ukraine is bouncing their attacks up and down the line — I think and have thought — the Russians don’t know where to deploy until it is too late. SO this is what a “shotgun” offensive (my term) looks like I think. They will just keep on doing this to those southern forces — like break them piece by piece.
RU is a broken force. Has been since July really. Looks like to me they (UKR) are even popping that line NE to Donetsk. Pretty goddamn confident I think. But they sure are making the Russians second guess every fucking move. Like where to deploy with what — to the 10th power.
General Hodges is saying this by the way —“ I'm always struck by how trashy the abandoned/overrun Russian positions are, how much Russian Soldier personal stuff is lying around, and how trashed out abandoned Russian vehicles are. All indicators of no discipline, no NCO's, and no Will to Fight. They will lose.”
He is fucking right!!! They are all fucking right!!! The only one’s that don’t get this by now is Russia. Not even Russian military, they know they are fucked by now — more like just Vlad.
It is just in the news that Russia is going to buy ammunition from North Korea you know (top notch stuff I am sure) — Well, how are they going to get it to the battlefield, especially in the south? It is like the three stogies directing a war here. I have studied an awful lot of wars and battles — some stupid shit happens but this one takes the cake. Never seen anything this badly done.
Termite ridden house look fine — until they don’t. I think it is likely this thing just implodes personally. Ukraine says by the end of the year will be the end of major combat— I think they are right. But Russia is going to get about 20,000 soldiers forced to surrender here pretty shortly. Surrenders are kind of a contagious thing.