I’ve been wanting to write this diary for a while but intentionally held off as this particular area hasn’t been receiving much attention lately. The line between Izyum and Kharkiv has been relatively ignored by both writers and combatants. There has been some attention to this area, but most Kharkiv stories have focused on North of Kharkiv and Izyum stories have focused primarily on South of Izyum. With Ukraine doing everything in its power to scream for everyone to pay attention to Kherson, I didn’t want to draw attention to a possible line of advance that Ukraine didn’t want emphasized. But now that one of their government officials (prematurely?) let the cat out of the bag by promising an update with big news about Kharkiv that hasn’t come, I feel that its okay to point out some very basic things.
If the Kharkiv area is a line of major advance, then Ukraine has done a lovely job of getting Russia to pull significant troops out of the Izyum and Lyman areas and send them to the Kherson area. Ukraine has subsequently damaged all railroads in and out of the greater Kherson area such that the troops there can no longer quickly redeploy back to Izyum. The rail lines through Crimea have been damaged and there is no usable rail line through the Donetsk area. Any redeployments will need to be via roads costing Russia considerable wear and tear on its vehicles. It’s my opinion that the recent offensive near Donetsk was a belated and insufficient attempt by Russia to free up this rail line by pushing Ukraine back out of artillery range of it.
Next, Izyum is not the target of this potential advance. Kupiansk is a secondary target on the way to the primary target of the eastern most rail line going through Starobilsk. This rail line is the primary rail line connecting Belgorod to Luhansk. Kupiansk has been important in supplying Izyum, Lyman and everything down to Severodonetsk. But unless they have repaired the rail line crossing the river near Severodonetsk that is as far as the Kupiansk line supplies. It’s the Starobilsk line that, should it be cut, would greatly weaken supply in all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. There are still rail lines further south so all supply would not be cut off, but losing this one would increase traffic on those other lines while causing supply from Belgorod to take a longer route to get to its destination.
Further, there is no immediate river to cross to begin this offensive and no long held (years) fortifications to defeat. The first major river is near Kupiansk itself. Should Russian defense collapse in the area, Ukraine may be able to effect an easier crossing and be able to continue on to the Starobilsk line. However, partial success in the operation can be achieved by simple getting to the west side of the river near Kupiansk. Ukraine would then have the Kupiansk rail yard under constant artillery barrage making it useless for effective resupply of Izyum and Lyman. Plus, part of the Starobilsk rail line would be at the outer limit of HIMARS range making it possible to reduce effectiveness of that line. It would be better to get there with infantry to seal it off, but just putting it under HIMARS would have considerable value.
The reduction of troops in Izyum has made this line of advance possible. Taking Balakliia is a necessary step towards guarding the right flank of such a drive. The further Russia gets pushed back towards Izyum the smaller this right flank becomes. The reservoir from Kupiansk to Izyum acts to help guard this flank and hinder Russian troop movement into the area. Meanwhile the Pechnihy reservoir to the north will anchor one end of the left flank.
This may or may not be happening. In my dreams this would be done with a Abrams/Bradly brigade supplied directly from Poland via express rail cars with US troops doing all the packing. I’ve seen no indication that is actually happening so Ukraine will have to make do with its T-72s. Cutting the Kupiansk and Starobilsk lines with further weakening of the Crimean lines would continue the degradation of Russian logistics across the theater. If the advance was wildly successful Ukraine could take a right turn at the border and roll up on Luhansk from the NE. Such a move would make for a long left flank so may not be in the offing, but is in the realm of the possible.
Wednesday, Sep 7, 2022 · 4:39:04 AM +00:00 · Peter Olandt
I just saw the updates regarding crossing the river near Lyman. Those moves are not incompatible with my theory. They may be opportunistic or diversionary. Or my scenario is completely wrong and Ukraine could move up past Lyman on the east bank of the reservoir to take Kupiansk.