You may have seen respected websites, like, oh, fivethirtyeight comes to mind, that paint things pretty bleak for the Democrats.
Let’s take the example of the Wisconsin Senate race between Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson.
Uh-Oh! Barnes is losing! OMG!
Except, no, notsomuch.
In fact, you have to go back a YEAR to see them even tied!
Barnes has been ahead of Johnson in every poll done in the past 365 days.
So, what’s the deal-i-o?
Well, seems that Wisconsin — in toto — has been trending red for quite a while, even if the 3 of the last 4 senators from Wisconsin since 1989 been Team Blue.
Now, I don’t mean to diminish Ron Johnson, nor to paint him as an anomaly; but Tammy Baldwin has been elected since Johnson, and she’s no DINO. Nor were the senators from Wisconsin before Johnson.
Still, yes, Wisconsin has been trending red.
But this election has been trending blue. To the tune of about 6 points. And if you completely negate that, AND add 4 points to the polls in Johnson’s favor because Wisconsin is getting redder, then, yeah, this is a toss-up.
Except it’s not.
Because midterm elections are about turn-out. And the people who historically turn out are older white folks who long for the good ol days when a man could support his family, and those uppity [insert invective here] knew their place.
Except the people who are 80 now are not as likely to turn out when bodily autonomy is on the line as 20somethings, who are way bluer.
Yes, yes, yes, give money to Mandela Barnes and Tim Ryan and Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto. Write letters for Mark Kelly.
But, look. Chuck Grassley is holding an 8 point lead over Mike Franken in Iowa. Apply those 6 points to Team Blue, and it’s a toss-up.
Don’t concede ANYTHING. NOTHING.
When I ran into Rahm Emanuel in a shoe store in 2006, I yelled at him, saying that Tammy Duckworth was the wrong candidate for IL-6; that a Democrat *can* win IL-6, but their first name has to be Father or Brother or Sister. But, run her for the 10th because the 10th has Great Lakes and Fort Sheridan, and Mark Kirk is not as invulnerable as it looks. He scoffed at me. He said that ---maaaaaaaaybe -— six seats were in play, and I didn’t know what I was talking about. I told him it was closer to 30. He asked which seats. I said KS-2, AZ-5, MN-1, FL-22… he laughed and told me I was stoned and to go away. He was there with his kid.
Turns out Dan Seals — a Black man with 0 name recognition came within 2 points of unseating Mark Kirk, and that Tammy Baldwin would have taken that seat in that tsunami year. She’s a Senator now. I don’t think she cares.
Thing is: 2006 was a 5 point Dem tide. This is, conservatively, a 6 point Dem tide. That is: any race that has the reddie up 8 or less is a seat we should be fighting for.
This is our year. We can take seats in virtually every state in the Union. We just took one in Alaska ffs.
Don’t let them tell you to ignore the polls where Team Blue is up because the area is hopelessly red. This is our year.
Go git em.
