UPDATE: Friday, Jan 20, 2023 · 10:02:12 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
This is good: Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov has announced that nations which are considering donations of Leopard 2 tanks have agreed to begin training courses on operation and maintenance of the tanks. Since this is a necessary step anyway, it could mean that no time actually ends up being lost in eventually getting these tanks in the field.
UPDATE: Friday, Jan 20, 2023 · 8:56:47 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
There are multiple reports that the U.S. has advised Ukraine to hold off on significant counteroffensives until new equipment has been integrated into their armed forces. No one should be taking this as a signal that Ukraine will be on the defensive until spring.
UPDATE: Friday, Jan 20, 2023 · 8:54:32 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Among the sites where the Ukrainian MOD reported Russian shelling today was Holykove. This is a village north of Kreminna and east of the P66 highway. Russia had the place fortified as an artillery position to act as fire control over the highway south of Ploshchanka. Ukrainian forces were reported moving on Holykove several times, but this is the first time it’s appeared in the lists of places attacked/shelled by Russian forces. If Ukraine now holds this location, it solidifies their control north of Kreminna.
UPDATE: Friday, Jan 20, 2023 · 8:14:22 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby says the U.S. will designate Russia’s Wagner Group as a “Transnational Criminal Organization.” This freezes any U.S. assets of Wagner and opens them to new sanctions. It’s a move Ukraine has been urging for some time.
UPDATE: Friday, Jan 20, 2023 · 6:03:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports on Friday that Ukraine is pushing east from Novoselivske into Kuzemivka, pushing Russian forces back to the eastern end of the town. This area has see-sawed back and forth since September, but most recently Ukrainian forces re-entered Novoselivske with what appears to be a locally significant defeat of Russian forces along this part of the line above Svatove.
Across Europe, there are more than 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks manufactured in Germany and now distributed over 13 nations. Many of those nations, including Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, would like to provide Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine to use in its ongoing struggle against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion. Ukrainian military officials feel this tank would directly address their need for more modern equipment. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused to allow this, saying that "Germany will not go alone" in sending tanks. Scholz made this statement even after the United Kingdom announced that it would send a company of its Challenger 2 Main Battle Tank, along with supporting vehicles, to Ukraine.
And that’s where things stand on Friday morning. Officials in some nations, including Poland, have threatened to send tanks without Germany’s permission, but they have not made any formal announcement that they will do so. Other German officials have indicated that requirements set by Scholz were flexible, but Scholz has quickly corrected them.
In an interview with CNN, an official from the Biden administration declares that Scholz has the whole world “over a barrel.” Only no one seems to understand why.
The question of the M1A2 Abrams, and Scholz’s insistence that it has to be sent first, doesn’t even really matter at this point. It’s just one of the lines that Scholz has drawn. He can always draw another one. Lines are cheap.
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The whole cycle of the war in Ukraine looks like this:
- Step one: Ukraine requests assistance of a specific type.
- Step two: Western nations say, “No, we can’t give you that, but we can give you this.”
- Step three: “This” turns out to be insufficient to halt the horrific flow of blood and end Russian aggression.
- Step four: Western nations draw a new line for what’s acceptable to send, which is slightly beyond where they were before.
- Step five: See step one.
This isn’t a new observation. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have been noting this reluctant inching forward of Western support from even before the day Russian tanks rolled across the border.
All types of heavy weapons were off the table. Until they weren’t. Armor was off the table. Until it wasn’t. Artillery wasn’t possible. Until it was. Modern air defense systems were, absolutely inexplicably, something that couldn’t be sent. Now they are.
The big barriers that remain fall mostly into three categories: Tanks, aircraft, and medium-range missiles. The first two have already been broken multiple times by Western nations that have shipped Ukraine updated versions of old Soviet-era T-64 and T-72 tanks, along with a variety of Soviet-design helicopters. The unbelievably picayune thing everyone is arguing over now, the thing that is causing untold numbers of deaths and injuries, is whether it’s okay to send tanks, aircraft, and missiles that weren’t originally based on a design out of Moscow.
It’s as if the entire Western world were an insurance adjuster who steps into a hospital room where surgery is desperately needed to offer either aspirin or a nice vat of medical leeches. But that modern surgery, the one that might help? That you cannot have.
This draw a line, erase a line, draw a new line frustration has been going on so long that I’m certain you’re tired of reading about it. I’m absolutely tired of writing about it. And neither of us is dying because of it. Ukrainians are.
As we’ve talked about in these updates endlessly, there are reasons to not do what’s threatening to happen now: Flood Ukraine with the sweepings of every military barn in Europe and the United States, leaving them with a hodge podge of has-beens, the effectiveness of which is questionable and the logistical challenge of which is supra-Everest. It’s exciting to see the announcements rolling out almost by the hour this week and to chart the growing list of hardware soon to roll along a rail line from Lviv. But for some of those in the Ukrainian military, it must look like the pieces of a dozen unconnected jigsaw puzzles, all being shoved their way with expectations of gratitude.
They really can’t say what they must be thinking: This looks great, but it’s not what we asked for.
What Ukraine needs is all of the Western allies working toward a coherent strategy to provide them with a modern military that can be actually put to work in the field. If the Great Tank Standoff shows anything, it shows that Western unity doesn’t extend to providing the coherent planning and consistent response that Ukraine needs.
Why Scholz can’t see that in refusing to release the Leopards Germany really is standing alone, I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone does. Whether the standoff ends with a relieved sigh or bitter words between allies, we’re likely to learn today.
To complete driving Russia off its land and end the incredibly high rate of civilian and military casualties, Ukraine needs to field a modern military. That military must include tank battalions. Those tank battalions need to be headed by a vehicle that is better than the alphabet soup of T-72, T-80, and T90 models now acting as ersatz monuments to aggression in fields all over Ukraine. The Leopard 2 is a good choice to fill that role. Only it may not happen.
In fact, right now it looks like this standoff is going to end up giving Ukraine none of what it needs.
It’s too bad there’s no way to weaponize frustration. Because Ukraine must have that by the gigaton.
Something very interesting has been going on with Sweden and Finland this morning. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has been one of the most impassioned speakers in support of Ukraine for some time, and she’s pushed hard this week to get other leaders to meet Ukraine’s needs. Earlier today, Ukraine and Finland announced that an assistance package had been agreed on valued at €400 million, but that Finland would not be detailing the contents of that package.
For those who are hoping, however, an adviser to Marin specifically noted that the package does not include Leopard 2 tanks.
That announcement was swiftly followed by another as Finland and Sweden signed a mutual protection pact. Both nations are still seeking to join NATO, but in the meantime, the new agreement specifically falls on Sweden to support Finland as needed after Finland provides equipment to Ukraine. This makes it sound as if, tanks or no tanks, Marin is reaching deep to provide everything she can to Ukraine.
Poland is now talking about a scheme in which it sends just two Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without Germany’s permission. Why two and not the full 14 it had proposed earlier in the week? That’s not clear. It’s possible that some of the Leopard 2 tanks in Poland may have had different language in their export license when it comes to requiring Germany’s permission for transfer to a third party, but that’s just guessing.
Last night I warned that this table was out of date before it was even typed. It also turned out to be error-riddled and incomplete, so thanks to everyone in comments who helped point out the flaws. As we go through the day today, I intend to update this table with more information and details as they become clear. Don’t hesitate to post comments if you see more.
One thing: Several lists have come out showing what’s supposedly in each aid package, only to be contradicted by new lists. Things will probably be fluctuating until some final, official announcements arrive.
One more thing: I’ve more or less restricted this table to vehicles, artillery, and air defense. So a large number of donations in the forms of ammunition and other materiel are not included here.
